San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake prediction: Real Salt Lake to win 1-2 as model gives 36.6% chance
MLS sees San Jose Earthquakes face Real Salt Lake at PayPal Park. The model makes Real Salt Lake the favourite, assigning a narrow 36.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is San Jose Earthquakes 35%, draw 28.5%, Real Salt Lake 36.6%.
San Jose Earthquakes have generated 1.49 goals per game (0.92x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.66 conceded per game. Real Salt Lake average 1.47 scored (0.91x average) and are a steady defence at 1.53 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.4 for Real Salt Lake.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56%), and both teams are likely to score (60.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Real Salt Lake to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 36.6% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: Revs jump eight places as playoffs loom — We're getting down to the pointy end of the season, and the New England Revolution have jumped right up ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-26)
- MLS Power Rankings: Messi's Inter Miami moving up, Nashville still No.1 — Nashville are very much still the team to beat, but Inter Miami, St. Louis City SC and Philly are hot on their heels in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)
- USMNT, RSL midfielder Diego Luna (knee) set to be out for months — Real Salt Lake and U.S. midfielder Diego Luna is expected to be out for months and will likely undergo an arthroscopic procedure to determine the extent of a knee injury, sources confirmed to ESPN. (ESPN, 2026-09-15)