New York City FC vs CF Montréal prediction: New York City FC to win 2-0 as model gives 64.7% chance
MLS sees New York City FC face CF Montréal at Citi Field. The model makes New York City FC the favourite, assigning a clear 64.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is New York City FC 64.7%, draw 21.9%, CF Montréal 13.4%.
New York City FC have generated 1.35 goals per game (0.83x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.38 conceded per game. CF Montréal average 0.97 scored (0.60x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.04 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for New York City FC and 0.7 for CF Montréal.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (45.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 1-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: New York City FC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 64.7% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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