New England Revolution vs Inter Miami CF prediction: Inter Miami CF to win 1-2 as model gives 43.4% chance
MLS sees New England Revolution face Inter Miami CF at Gillette Stadium. The model makes Inter Miami CF the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is New England Revolution 29.1%, draw 27.4%, Inter Miami CF 43.4%.
New England Revolution have generated 1.70 goals per game (1.05x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.45 conceded per game. Inter Miami CF average 2.33 scored (1.43x average) and are a steady defence at 1.61 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for New England Revolution and 1.9 for Inter Miami CF.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 72.3%), and both teams are likely to score (72.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Inter Miami CF to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.4% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Messi eligible for crunch Miami game with Revs despite yellow card haul — Lionel Messi is eligible for Inter Miami's game against the New England Revolution on Sunday despite receiving his fifth yellow card of the season on Wednesday. (ESPN, 2026-10-30)
- Messi tracker: Goals, assists, key moments in 2026 — ESPN provides game-by-game analysis of Lionel Messi's performances for Inter Miami and Argentina. (ESPN, 2026-10-29)
- MLS sprint season to kick off on Feb. 19 in Miami — The 2027 MLS sprint season will kick off with a standalone match between Inter Miami and FC Cincinnati on Feb. 19 at Nu Stadium in Miami, Florida. (ESPN, 2026-10-29)
- MLS Power Rankings: Revs jump eight places as playoffs loom — We're getting down to the pointy end of the season, and the New England Revolution have jumped right up ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-26)
- Lionel Messi comes off bench as Casemiro own goal sees Red Bulls beat Miami — Lionel Messi came off the bench early in the second half but couldn't prevent Inter Miami's three-game win streak coming to an end with a 2-0 loss at Red Bull New York on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-10-25)
- Miami coach praises Messi's 'commitment' to play after award in Spain — Inter Miami head coach Cristian "Kily" Gonzalez confirmed Lionel Messi will rejoin the team for the match against the New York Red Bulls on Saturday after receiving the Princess of Asturias award for sport in Oviedo, Spain. (ESPN, 2026-10-23)