Champions League predictions for 14 October 2026: every match previewed

7 Champions League fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 6 games the model calls close.

7 Champions League matches are scheduled between Wednesday, 14 October 2026 and Wednesday, 14 October 2026. The model makes 1 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Manchester City against Paris Saint-Germain, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Manchester City24.4%2-4Paris Saint-Germain50.9%PSG to win · 50.9%

Paris Saint-Germain are a narrow favourite at 50.9% (draw 24.7%, Manchester City 24.4%). Expected goals come out at 1.2 for Manchester City and 1.8 for Paris Saint-Germain, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (57.7%), and both teams to score is likely at 60.2%. On Elo ratings Paris Saint-Germain are the clearly stronger side (111 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Manchester City WWWWW, Paris Saint-Germain WWWWL (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Man City vs. PSG LIVE: Champions League updates as Maresca's team play first home match since guilty verdict".

Every fixture

AS Roma v Real Madrid, Wednesday, 14 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Real Madrid to win at 56%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 36.4%. Form: AS Roma DDWDW, Real Madrid WLWWW. Full preview

Aston Villa v Fenerbahce, Wednesday, 14 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Aston Villa to win at 64.2%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 62.7%. Form: Aston Villa DWLWD, Fenerbahce WWDDL. Full preview

Bodo/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund, Wednesday, 14 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Borussia Dortmund to win at 42.3%, most likely score 1-3, Over 2.5 at 84.3%. Form: Bodo/Glimt WLWLW, Dortmund DWWWW. Full preview

Manchester City v Paris Saint-Germain, Wednesday, 14 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Paris Saint-Germain to win at 50.9%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 57.7%. Form: Man City WWWWW, PSG WWWWL. Full preview

Real Betis v FC Porto, Wednesday, 14 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Real Betis to win at 38%, most likely score 3-0, Over 2.5 at 72.5%. Form: Betis WDWWW, FC Porto WWWLW. Full preview

Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens, Wednesday, 14 October 2026 19:00 UTC

AEK Athens to win at 45.1%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 6.6%. Form: Shakhtar DLWLL, AEK Athens WWDWW. Full preview

Slovan Bratislava v VfB Stuttgart, Wednesday, 14 October 2026 19:00 UTC

VfB Stuttgart to win at 75.6%, most likely score 0-3, Over 2.5 at 74.6%. Form: S Bratislava LLLLL, Stuttgart WLLWW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Champions League probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.