Champions League predictions for 21 October 2026: every match previewed

9 Champions League fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 4 clear favourites, 5 games the model calls close.

9 Champions League matches are scheduled between Wednesday, 21 October 2026 and Wednesday, 21 October 2026. The model makes 4 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Bayern Munich against Arsenal, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Bayern Munich41.7%2-2Arsenal32.6%Bayern to win · 41.7%

Bayern Munich are a marginal favourite at 47.2% (draw 24.4%, Arsenal 28.5%). Expected goals come out at 1.1 for Bayern Munich and 1.4 for Arsenal. The total sits close to the 2.5 line, and both teams to score is a coin flip at 52.1%. Form: Bayern Munich WDDWW, Arsenal WWWLW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Transfer rumors, news: Barcelona, Bayern eye Aston Villa's Manzambi".

Every fixture

Como v Manchester United, Wednesday, 21 October 2026 16:45 UTC

Como to win at 40.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 69.7%. Form: Como WLDLW, Man United DLDDL. Full preview

Lille v Galatasaray, Wednesday, 21 October 2026 16:45 UTC

Lille to win at 44.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 59.8%. Form: Lille DLWLW, Galatasaray WLWLW. Full preview

Aston Villa v Viking FK, Wednesday, 21 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Aston Villa to win at 87.5%, most likely score 3-0, Over 2.5 at 77.7%. Form: Aston Villa WWDWL, Viking FK WDWWW. Full preview

Bayern Munich v Arsenal, Wednesday, 21 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Bayern Munich to win at 47.2%, Over 2.5 at 45.8%. Form: Bayern WDDWW, Arsenal WWWLW. Full preview

Club Brugge v Lens, Wednesday, 21 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Club Brugge to win at 50%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 84.1%. Form: Club Brugge WWWWL, Lens WLWLD. Full preview

Internazionale v Shakhtar Donetsk, Wednesday, 21 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Internazionale to win at 92.2%, Over 2.5 at 66%. Form: Inter Milan WLWDW, Shakhtar WDLWL. Full preview

Real Betis v Feyenoord Rotterdam, Wednesday, 21 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Real Betis to win at 62.2%, most likely score 3-1, Over 2.5 at 88.4%. Form: Betis LWWDW, Feyenoord WWWWW. Full preview

Real Madrid v RB Leipzig, Wednesday, 21 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Real Madrid to win at 86.1%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 68.2%. Form: Real Madrid WWWLW, RB Leipzig LWWLW. Full preview

Sporting CP v LASK Linz, Wednesday, 21 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Sporting CP to win at 85.1%, most likely score 3-0, Over 2.5 at 74.1%. Form: Sporting WWDDW, LASK Linz WLLDL. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Champions League probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.