Champions League predictions for 4 November 2026: every match previewed

7 Champions League fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 4 clear favourites, 3 games the model calls close.

7 Champions League matches are scheduled between Wednesday, 4 November 2026 and Wednesday, 4 November 2026. The model makes 4 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is RB Leipzig against Manchester City, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

RB Leipzig10.1%vManchester City67.2%Man City to win · 67.2%

Manchester City are a solid favourite at 67.2% (draw 22.7%, RB Leipzig 10.1%). Expected goals come out at 1 for RB Leipzig and 3.1 for Manchester City, with 1-3 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (77.8%), and both teams to score is likely at 62.5%. Form: RB Leipzig WWLLW, Manchester City LLWWL (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Man City relegated from Premier League but win Champions League? How it could play out".

Every fixture

Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis, Wednesday, 4 November 2026 20:00 UTC

Borussia Dortmund to win at 71.7%, Over 2.5 at 55.4%. Form: Dortmund DWWDL, Betis WDWLW. Full preview

FC Porto v Napoli, Wednesday, 4 November 2026 20:00 UTC

FC Porto to win at 54.5%, Over 2.5 at 46.5%. Form: FC Porto WWLLW, Napoli LWDWL. Full preview

Lens v Como, Wednesday, 4 November 2026 20:00 UTC

Como to win at 56.2%, most likely score 0-3, Over 2.5 at 76.9%. Form: Lens LWLWL, Como WWWWW. Full preview

PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge, Wednesday, 4 November 2026 20:00 UTC

PSV Eindhoven to win at 54.1%, Over 2.5 at 47.2%. Form: PSV WDWLL, Club Brugge WWWWW. Full preview

RB Leipzig v Manchester City, Wednesday, 4 November 2026 20:00 UTC

Manchester City to win at 67.2%, most likely score 1-3, Over 2.5 at 77.8%. Form: RB Leipzig WWLLW, Man City LLWWL. Full preview

Slavia Prague v Arsenal, Wednesday, 4 November 2026 20:00 UTC

Arsenal to win at 82.9%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 45.9%. Form: Slavia Prague DLLLL, Arsenal WWDWW. Full preview

Viking FK v Sabah FK, Wednesday, 4 November 2026 20:00 UTC

Viking FK to win at 72.3%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 66.5%. Form: Viking FK LWLWD, Sabah LWL. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Champions League probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.