Championship predictions: every match from 16 October to 24 October 2026

24 Championship fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 23 games the model calls close.

24 Championship matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Saturday, 24 October 2026. The model makes 1 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Queens Park Rangers against Swansea City, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Queens Park Rangers41.4%vSwansea City33%QPR to win · 41.4%

Queens Park Rangers are a marginal favourite at 42.8% (draw 25.3%, Swansea City 31.9%). Expected goals come out at 1.1 for Queens Park Rangers and 1.3 for Swansea City, with 1-0 the most likely exact score. The model expects a tight game, Under 2.5 at 58%, and both teams to score is a coin flip at 49.4%. Form: Queens Park Rangers LWDDD, Swansea City LWWWW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Racism allegation mars Swansea win at Millwall".

Every fixture

Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers, Friday, 16 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Wolverhampton Wanderers to win at 46.3%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 74.5%. Form: Burnley LDWDL, Wolves DWLLW. Full preview

Middlesbrough v Cardiff City, Saturday, 17 October 2026 11:30 UTC

Middlesbrough to win at 59%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 65.8%. Form: Boro DWWDD, Cardiff DWLWL. Full preview

Millwall v Lincoln City, Saturday, 17 October 2026 11:30 UTC

Millwall to win at 51.2%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 50.2%. Form: Millwall DLWDD, Lincoln City DLLLW. Full preview

Watford v Charlton Athletic, Saturday, 17 October 2026 11:30 UTC

Charlton Athletic to win at 37.6%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 35.5%. Form: Watford WLLLL, Charlton LDDLD. Full preview

Birmingham City v Queens Park Rangers, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Birmingham City to win at 48%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 47.7%. Form: Birmingham WWWDW, QPR LWDDD. Full preview

Bristol City v Sheffield United, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Bristol City to win at 44.4%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 50.4%. Form: Bristol City LLDWL, Sheffield Utd WLWLL. Full preview

Derby County v Stoke City, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Stoke City to win at 43.4%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 54.6%. Form: Derby LLDDL, Stoke WLWWW. Full preview

Norwich City v Portsmouth, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Norwich City to win at 53.1%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 59.9%. Form: Norwich City LLLLL, Portsmouth DWWLD. Full preview

Southampton v Bolton Wanderers, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Southampton to win at 58.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 75.2%. Form: Southampton DWWLW, Bolton DWLWW. Full preview

Swansea City v West Ham United, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

West Ham United to win at 47.2%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 65%. Form: Swansea LWWWW, West Ham WWDDW. Full preview

West Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

West Bromwich Albion to win at 48.6%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 30.7%. Form: West Brom WWLLD, Blackburn LWWDW. Full preview

Wrexham v Preston North End, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Wrexham to win at 53%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 53.7%. Form: Wrexham WLDWL, Preston LLLDL. Full preview

Bolton Wanderers v Middlesbrough, Friday, 23 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Middlesbrough to win at 64.7%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 63.3%. Form: Bolton DWLWW, Boro DWWDD. Full preview

Charlton Athletic v Norwich City, Saturday, 24 October 2026 11:30 UTC

Norwich City to win at 53%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 45.1%. Form: Charlton LDDLD, Norwich City LLLLL. Full preview

Portsmouth v Millwall, Saturday, 24 October 2026 11:30 UTC

Portsmouth to win at 43.1%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 47.5%. Form: Portsmouth DWWLD, Millwall DLWDD. Full preview

Sheffield United v Derby County, Saturday, 24 October 2026 11:30 UTC

Sheffield United to win at 53.7%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 53.8%. Form: Sheffield Utd WLWLL, Derby LLDDL. Full preview

Blackburn Rovers v Wrexham, Saturday, 24 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Wrexham to win at 44%, Over 2.5 at 52.6%. Form: Blackburn LWWDW, Wrexham WLDWL. Full preview

Cardiff City v Birmingham City, Saturday, 24 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Birmingham City to win at 43.3%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 58.9%. Form: Cardiff DWLWL, Birmingham WWWDW. Full preview

Lincoln City v Burnley, Saturday, 24 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Burnley to win at 48.2%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 58.2%. Form: Lincoln City DLLLW, Burnley LDWDL. Full preview

Preston North End v West Bromwich Albion, Saturday, 24 October 2026 14:00 UTC

West Bromwich Albion to win at 58.5%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 43.5%. Form: Preston LLLDL, West Brom WWLLD. Full preview

Queens Park Rangers v Swansea City, Saturday, 24 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Queens Park Rangers to win at 42.8%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42%. Form: QPR LWDDD, Swansea LWWWW. Full preview

Stoke City v Bristol City, Saturday, 24 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Stoke City to win at 42.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 46.3%. Form: Stoke WLWWW, Bristol City LLDWL. Full preview

West Ham United v Southampton, Saturday, 24 October 2026 14:00 UTC

West Ham United to win at 62.3%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 66%. Form: West Ham WWDDW, Southampton DWWLW. Full preview

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford, Saturday, 24 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Wolverhampton Wanderers to win at 80.9%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 61.5%. Form: Wolves DWLLW, Watford WLLLL. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Championship probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.