Ligue 1 predictions: every match from 16 October to 24 October 2026
12 Ligue 1 fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 11 games the model calls close.
12 Ligue 1 matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Saturday, 24 October 2026. The model makes 1 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Strasbourg against Paris Saint-Germain, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.
Headline fixture
Strasbourg8.3%v
Paris Saint-Germain69%PSG to win · 69%Paris Saint-Germain are a solid favourite at 69% (draw 22.7%, Strasbourg 8.3%). Expected goals come out at 1.5 for Strasbourg and 2.2 for Paris Saint-Germain, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (70.3%), and both teams to score is likely at 69.1%. Form: Strasbourg LLLDW, Paris Saint-Germain WWWWW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Cristiano Ronaldo return for Portugal team must be 'resolved' - Vitinha".
Every fixture
Le Mans v Toulouse, Friday, 16 October 2026 18:45 UTC
Toulouse to win at 44%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 74.1%. Form: Le Mans LLWDD, Toulouse WDWDL. Full preview
Strasbourg v Paris Saint-Germain, Saturday, 17 October 2026 15:15 UTC
Paris Saint-Germain to win at 69%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.3%. Form: Strasbourg LLLDW, PSG WWWWW. Full preview
Lille v Brest, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:45 UTC
Lille to win at 44.6%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 47.4%. Form: Lille DLWLW, Brest DWLLW. Full preview
Troyes v Lens, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:45 UTC
Lens to win at 55.8%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 63.3%. Form: Troyes LLLLL, Lens WLWLD. Full preview
Angers v Marseille, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC
Marseille to win at 48.8%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 49.4%. Form: Angers LLWDL, Marseille WLWLL. Full preview
Le Havre AC v AJ Auxerre, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:15 UTC
Le Havre AC to win at 38.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 40.6%. Form: Le Havre AC LLLDL, Auxerre WLWWL. Full preview
Lorient v AS Monaco, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:15 UTC
AS Monaco to win at 50.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 49.5%. Form: Lorient WWLDW, Monaco LWDWD. Full preview
Paris FC v Stade Rennais, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:15 UTC
Paris FC to win at 37.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 56.5%. Form: Paris FC WLWDW, Rennes LWWLD. Full preview
Lyon v Nice, Sunday, 18 October 2026 18:45 UTC
Lyon to win at 50.5%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 47.5%. Form: Lyon WWLWW, Nice LWWLD. Full preview
Brest v Nice, Friday, 23 October 2026 18:45 UTC
Brest to win at 41.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 49.9%. Form: Brest DWLLW, Nice LWWLD. Full preview
Toulouse v Troyes, Saturday, 24 October 2026 15:15 UTC
Toulouse to win at 58.7%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 65.6%. Form: Toulouse WDWDL, Troyes LLLLL. Full preview
Lens v Paris FC, Saturday, 24 October 2026 18:45 UTC
Lens to win at 38.1%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 60.1%. Form: Lens WLWLD, Paris FC WLWDW. Full preview
A note on the numbers
Ligue 1 probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.