Ligue 1 predictions: every match from 16 October to 18 October 2026

9 Ligue 1 fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 8 games the model calls close.

9 Ligue 1 matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Sunday, 18 October 2026. The model makes 1 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Strasbourg against Paris Saint-Germain, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Strasbourg8.3%vParis Saint-Germain69%PSG to win · 69%

Paris Saint-Germain are a solid favourite at 69% (draw 22.7%, Strasbourg 8.3%). Expected goals come out at 1.5 for Strasbourg and 2.2 for Paris Saint-Germain, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (70.3%), and both teams to score is likely at 69.1%. Form: Strasbourg WLLLL, Paris Saint-Germain WWWWW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "PSG send UCL records tumbling with 6-goal thrashing of Villarreal".

Every fixture

Le Mans v Toulouse, Friday, 16 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Toulouse to win at 44%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 74.1%. Form: Le Mans LDLLW, Toulouse LDWDW. Full preview

Strasbourg v Paris Saint-Germain, Saturday, 17 October 2026 15:15 UTC

Paris Saint-Germain to win at 69%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.3%. Form: Strasbourg WLLLL, PSG WWWWW. Full preview

Lille v Brest, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Lille to win at 44.6%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 47.4%. Form: Lille DWDLD, Brest WLDWL. Full preview

Troyes v Lens, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Lens to win at 55.8%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 63.3%. Form: Troyes WDLLL, Lens LWLWL. Full preview

Angers v Marseille, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Marseille to win at 48.8%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 49.4%. Form: Angers LDLLW, Marseille WWLWL. Full preview

Le Havre AC v AJ Auxerre, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:15 UTC

Le Havre AC to win at 38.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 40.6%. Form: Le Havre AC LLLLL, Auxerre LDWLW. Full preview

Lorient v AS Monaco, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:15 UTC

AS Monaco to win at 50.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 49.5%. Form: Lorient LDWWL, Monaco LDWLW. Full preview

Paris FC v Stade Rennais, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:15 UTC

Paris FC to win at 37.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 56.5%. Form: Paris FC WLWLW, Rennes LWDLW. Full preview

Lyon v Nice, Sunday, 18 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Lyon to win at 50.5%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 47.5%. Form: Lyon WLLWW, Nice WWLWW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Ligue 1 probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.