Premier League predictions: every match from 17 October to 24 October 2026

14 Premier League fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 2 clear favourites, 12 games the model calls close.

14 Premier League matches are scheduled between Saturday, 17 October 2026 and Saturday, 24 October 2026. The model makes 2 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Aston Villa against Manchester City, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Aston Villa14.8%vManchester City61.7%Man City to win · 61.7%

Manchester City are a solid favourite at 63.3% (draw 23.5%, Aston Villa 13.2%). Expected goals come out at 1 for Aston Villa and 2.1 for Manchester City, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (61.7%), and both teams to score is likely at 58.3%. Bookmakers price Manchester City at about 58.3%, so the model is 5 points more confident than the market. On Elo ratings Manchester City are the clearly stronger side (117 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Aston Villa WWDWL, Manchester City WWLWW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Football watchdog chair asserts 'absolute' power to force City sale".

Every fixture

Everton v Chelsea, Saturday, 17 October 2026 11:30 UTC

Chelsea to win at 47.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 62.3%. Form: Everton LDWDD, Chelsea WWLDL. Full preview

Brentford v Liverpool, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Liverpool to win at 36.7%, Over 2.5 at 55.1%. Form: Brentford LDWDD, Liverpool WWWLW. Full preview

Fulham v Hull City, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Fulham to win at 59.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 36.3%. Form: Fulham WLDDL, Hull LDLDD. Full preview

Manchester City v Ipswich Town, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Manchester City to win at 70.3%, most likely score 3-0, Over 2.5 at 76.2%. Form: Man City WWLWW, Ipswich LWLWL. Full preview

Newcastle United v Aston Villa, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:30 UTC

Newcastle United to win at 38.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 67%. Form: Newcastle LLWLD, Aston Villa WWDWL. Full preview

AFC Bournemouth v Sunderland, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

AFC Bournemouth to win at 41.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 55.5%. Form: Bournemouth WWLLW, Sunderland LWLLW. Full preview

Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Brighton & Hove Albion to win at 56.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 67.9%. Form: Brighton WWWWW, C Palace LLWDW. Full preview

Leeds United v Manchester United, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Leeds United to win at 36.9%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 47.9%. Form: Leeds DLDWD, Man United DLDDL. Full preview

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:30 UTC

Arsenal to win at 64.2%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 38%. Form: Nottm Forest LLLWD, Arsenal WWWLW. Full preview

Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest, Friday, 23 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Nottingham Forest to win at 49.4%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 60%. Form: Ipswich LWLWL, Nottm Forest LLLWD. Full preview

Aston Villa v Manchester City, Saturday, 24 October 2026 11:30 UTC

Manchester City to win at 63.3%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 61.7%. Form: Aston Villa WWDWL, Man City WWLWW. Full preview

Arsenal v Everton, Saturday, 24 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Arsenal to win at 76.8%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 39.5%. Form: Arsenal WWWLW, Everton LDWDD. Full preview

Coventry City v Fulham, Saturday, 24 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Fulham to win at 48.9%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 43.1%. Form: Coventry LWWLL, Fulham WLDDL. Full preview

Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur, Saturday, 24 October 2026 16:30 UTC

Chelsea to win at 59.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 63.9%. Form: Chelsea WWLDL, Spurs WDLDD. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Premier League probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.