Premier League predictions: every match from 17 October to 25 October 2026

14 Premier League fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 13 games the model calls close.

14 Premier League matches are scheduled between Saturday, 17 October 2026 and Sunday, 25 October 2026. The model makes 1 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Liverpool against Brighton & Hove Albion, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Liverpool45%vBrighton & Hove Albion30.7%Liverpool to win · 45%

Liverpool are a marginal favourite at 45% (draw 24.3%, Brighton & Hove Albion 30.7%). Expected goals come out at 1.2 for Liverpool and 1.9 for Brighton & Hove Albion. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (59%), and both teams to score is likely at 59.7%. Form: Liverpool WWWLW, Brighton & Hove Albion DWWWW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Premier League live updates: Man United face Bournemouth, Liverpool host Brighton".

Every fixture

Everton v Chelsea, Saturday, 17 October 2026 11:30 UTC

Chelsea to win at 47.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 62.3%. Form: Everton LLDWD, Chelsea LWWLD. Full preview

Brentford v Liverpool, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Liverpool to win at 36.7%, Over 2.5 at 55.1%. Form: Brentford LDWDD, Liverpool WWWLW. Full preview

Fulham v Hull City, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Fulham to win at 59.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 36.3%. Form: Fulham WWLDD, Hull LDLDD. Full preview

Manchester City v Ipswich Town, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Manchester City to win at 70.3%, most likely score 3-0, Over 2.5 at 76.2%. Form: Man City LWWLW, Ipswich DLWLW. Full preview

Newcastle United v Aston Villa, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:30 UTC

Newcastle United to win at 38.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 67%. Form: Newcastle LLWLD, Aston Villa WWWWD. Full preview

AFC Bournemouth v Sunderland, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

AFC Bournemouth to win at 41.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 55.5%. Form: Bournemouth WWWLL, Sunderland DLWLL. Full preview

Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Brighton & Hove Albion to win at 56.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 67.9%. Form: Brighton DWWWW, C Palace DLLWD. Full preview

Leeds United v Manchester United, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Leeds United to win at 36.9%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 47.9%. Form: Leeds DLDWD, Man United LDLDD. Full preview

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:30 UTC

Arsenal to win at 64.2%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 38%. Form: Nottm Forest DLLLW, Arsenal WDWWW. Full preview

Crystal Palace v Newcastle United, Sunday, 25 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Newcastle United to win at 44.3%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 65.8%. Form: C Palace DLLWD, Newcastle LLWLD. Full preview

Hull City v Brentford, Sunday, 25 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Brentford to win at 59.7%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 39.4%. Form: Hull LDLDD, Brentford LDWDD. Full preview

Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion, Sunday, 25 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Liverpool to win at 45%, Over 2.5 at 59%. Form: Liverpool WWWLW, Brighton DWWWW. Full preview

Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth, Sunday, 25 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Manchester United to win at 39.4%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 61%. Form: Man United LDLDD, Bournemouth WWWLL. Full preview

Sunderland v Leeds United, Sunday, 25 October 2026 16:30 UTC

Leeds United to win at 45%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 40.7%. Form: Sunderland DLWLL, Leeds DLDWD. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Premier League probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.