Primeira Liga predictions: every match from 23 October to 25 October 2026

7 Primeira Liga fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 3 clear favourites, 4 games the model calls close.

7 Primeira Liga matches are scheduled between Friday, 23 October 2026 and Sunday, 25 October 2026. The model makes 3 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Gil Vicente against FC Porto, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Gil Vicente5.6%vFC Porto74.8%FC Porto to win · 74.8%

FC Porto are a solid favourite at 74.8% (draw 19.6%, Gil Vicente 5.6%). Expected goals come out at 0.6 for Gil Vicente and 1.5 for FC Porto, with 0-1 the most likely exact score. The model expects a tight game, Under 2.5 at 64.1%, and both teams to score is unlikely at 37.1%. Bookmakers price FC Porto at about 68.8%, so the model is 6 points more confident than the market. On Elo ratings FC Porto are the clearly stronger side (185 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Gil Vicente WWDLL, FC Porto LLWWW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Man City's Erling Haaland says Porto's Pablo Rosario grabbed his backside".

Every fixture

Vitória de Guimaraes v Maritimo, Friday, 23 October 2026 19:45 UTC

Vitória de Guimaraes to win at 73.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.1%. Form: Vitória LDLDL, Maritimo LDLLL. Full preview

Estrela v Casa Pia, Saturday, 24 October 2026 14:30 UTC

Estrela to win at 58.1%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 50.7%. Form: Estrela LLDWD, Casa Pia LWLDL. Full preview

Alverca v Arouca, Saturday, 24 October 2026 17:00 UTC

Alverca to win at 50.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 52.8%. Form: Alverca WWWLD, Arouca WDLDW. Full preview

Gil Vicente v FC Porto, Saturday, 24 October 2026 19:30 UTC

FC Porto to win at 74.8%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 35.9%. Form: Gil Vicente WWDLL, FC Porto LLWWW. Full preview

Estoril v Moreirense, Sunday, 25 October 2026 15:30 UTC

Estoril to win at 58%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.8%. Form: Estoril LLLDL, Moreirense LDWLL. Full preview

C.D. Nacional v Braga, Sunday, 25 October 2026 18:00 UTC

Braga to win at 70.4%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 53%. Form: Nacional LLLLL, Braga LLLDW. Full preview

Rio Ave v FC Famalicao, Sunday, 25 October 2026 18:00 UTC

FC Famalicao to win at 57.8%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 48.4%. Form: Rio Ave WLDLL, FC Famalicao LWDDD. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Primeira Liga probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.