Serie A predictions: every match from 16 October to 18 October 2026

8 Serie A fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 0 clear favourites, 8 games the model calls close.

8 Serie A matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Sunday, 18 October 2026. The model makes 0 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Juventus against Lazio, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Juventus57.5%vLazio19.3%Juventus to win · 57.5%

Juventus are a narrow favourite at 57.5% (draw 23.2%, Lazio 19.3%). Expected goals come out at 1.3 for Juventus and 0.9 for Lazio, with 1-0 the most likely exact score. The model expects a tight game, Under 2.5 at 63%, and both teams to score is unlikely at 43.9%. On Elo ratings Juventus are the clearly stronger side (117 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Juventus WLWDL, Lazio WWWWW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Mussolini's great-grandson scores first goal for Lazio".

Every fixture

Frosinone v Sassuolo, Friday, 16 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Sassuolo to win at 36.7%, Over 2.5 at 57.4%. Form: Frosinone WWDWL, Sassuolo LLLLD. Full preview

Venezia v Napoli, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Napoli to win at 61.1%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 67.9%. Form: Venezia LLLWL, Napoli LWDWL. Full preview

Bologna v Internazionale, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:00 UTC

Internazionale to win at 63.6%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 63.4%. Form: Bologna WWWLW, Inter Milan WLWWW. Full preview

AS Roma v Genoa, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:45 UTC

AS Roma to win at 57.7%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 56%. Form: AS Roma LWWDW, Genoa WWWLW. Full preview

Udinese v Lecce, Sunday, 18 October 2026 10:30 UTC

Udinese to win at 47.7%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 50.3%. Form: Udinese LDLLL, Lecce LLLWL. Full preview

Fiorentina v Como, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Como to win at 49.5%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 49.3%. Form: Fiorentina WDLLL, Como WWWWW. Full preview

AC Milan v Atalanta, Sunday, 18 October 2026 16:00 UTC

AC Milan to win at 50.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 41.8%. Form: Milan WLWLW, Atalanta LDDLL. Full preview

Juventus v Lazio, Sunday, 18 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Juventus to win at 57.5%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 37%. Form: Juventus WLWDL, Lazio WWWWW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Serie A probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.