Championship predictions: every match from 16 October to 31 October 2026
24 Championship fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 23 games the model calls close.
24 Championship matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Saturday, 31 October 2026. The model makes 1 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Southampton against Queens Park Rangers, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.
Headline fixture
Southampton50.9%v
Queens Park Rangers21.6%Southampton to win · 50.9%Southampton are a narrow favourite at 50.9% (draw 27.5%, Queens Park Rangers 21.6%). Expected goals come out at 2 for Southampton and 1 for Queens Park Rangers, with 2-1 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (58.9%), and both teams to score is likely at 56.8%. On Elo ratings Southampton are the clearly stronger side (216 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Southampton WDWWL, Queens Park Rangers WLWDD (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Southampton beat rivals Portsmouth 1-0 in first match after Spygate conclusion".
Every fixture
Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers, Friday, 16 October 2026 19:00 UTC
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win at 46.3%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 74.5%. Form: Burnley LLDWD, Wolves WDWLL. Full preview
Middlesbrough v Cardiff City, Saturday, 17 October 2026 11:30 UTC
Middlesbrough to win at 59%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 65.8%. Form: Boro WDWWD, Cardiff WDWLW. Full preview
Millwall v Lincoln City, Saturday, 17 October 2026 11:30 UTC
Millwall to win at 51.2%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 50.2%. Form: Millwall LDLWD, Lincoln City WDLLL. Full preview
Watford v Charlton Athletic, Saturday, 17 October 2026 11:30 UTC
Charlton Athletic to win at 37.6%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 35.5%. Form: Watford LWLLL, Charlton LLDDL. Full preview
Birmingham City v Queens Park Rangers, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
Birmingham City to win at 48%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 47.7%. Form: Birmingham LWWWD, QPR WLWDD. Full preview
Bristol City v Sheffield United, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
Bristol City to win at 44.4%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 50.4%. Form: Bristol City DLLDW, Sheffield Utd DWLWL. Full preview
Derby County v Stoke City, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
Stoke City to win at 43.4%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 54.6%. Form: Derby DLLDD, Stoke DWLWW. Full preview
Norwich City v Portsmouth, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
Norwich City to win at 53.1%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 59.9%. Form: Norwich City WLLLL, Portsmouth WDWWL. Full preview
Southampton v Bolton Wanderers, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
Southampton to win at 58.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 75.2%. Form: Southampton WDWWL, Bolton LDWLW. Full preview
Swansea City v West Ham United, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
West Ham United to win at 47.2%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 65%. Form: Swansea LLWWW, West Ham LWWDD. Full preview
West Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
West Bromwich Albion to win at 48.6%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 30.7%. Form: West Brom DWWLL, Blackburn WLWWD. Full preview
Wrexham v Preston North End, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
Wrexham to win at 53%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 53.7%. Form: Wrexham LWLDW, Preston DLLLD. Full preview
Sheffield United v Wrexham, Friday, 30 October 2026 20:00 UTC
Wrexham to win at 36%, Over 2.5 at 56.8%. Form: Sheffield Utd DWLWL, Wrexham LWLDW. Full preview
Lincoln City v Birmingham City, Saturday, 31 October 2026 12:30 UTC
Birmingham City to win at 48.7%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 50.4%. Form: Lincoln City WDLLL, Birmingham LWWWD. Full preview
Norwich City v Watford, Saturday, 31 October 2026 12:30 UTC
Norwich City to win at 57.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 57.7%. Form: Norwich City WLLLL, Watford LWLLL. Full preview
Stoke City v Preston North End, Saturday, 31 October 2026 12:30 UTC
Stoke City to win at 50.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 52.3%. Form: Stoke DWLWW, Preston DLLLD. Full preview
Bolton Wanderers v Bristol City, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:00 UTC
Bristol City to win at 43.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 51.6%. Form: Bolton LDWLW, Bristol City DLLDW. Full preview
Burnley v Portsmouth, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:00 UTC
Burnley to win at 42.3%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 62.2%. Form: Burnley LLDWD, Portsmouth WDWWL. Full preview
Middlesbrough v Charlton Athletic, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:00 UTC
Middlesbrough to win at 74.7%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 58%. Form: Boro WDWWD, Charlton LLDDL. Full preview
Millwall v Derby County, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:00 UTC
Millwall to win at 54%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 51.7%. Form: Millwall LDLWD, Derby DLLDD. Full preview
Southampton v Queens Park Rangers, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:00 UTC
Southampton to win at 50.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 58.9%. Form: Southampton WDWWL, QPR WLWDD. Full preview
Swansea City v Blackburn Rovers, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:00 UTC
Swansea City to win at 52.4%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.1%. Form: Swansea LLWWW, Blackburn WLWWD. Full preview
West Ham United v West Bromwich Albion, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:00 UTC
West Ham United to win at 54.8%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 66.4%. Form: West Ham LWWDD, West Brom DWWLL. Full preview
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff City, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:00 UTC
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win at 56%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 60.6%. Form: Wolves WDWLL, Cardiff WDWLW. Full preview
A note on the numbers
Championship probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.