Eredivisie predictions: every match from 16 October to 18 October 2026

9 Eredivisie fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 4 clear favourites, 5 games the model calls close.

9 Eredivisie matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Sunday, 18 October 2026. The model makes 4 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is FC Groningen against Ajax Amsterdam, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

FC Groningen20.3%vAjax Amsterdam52.6%Ajax to win · 52.6%

Ajax Amsterdam are a narrow favourite at 52.6% (draw 27.1%, FC Groningen 20.3%). Expected goals come out at 1.5 for FC Groningen and 1.8 for Ajax Amsterdam, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (63.2%), and both teams to score is likely at 65.4%. Form: FC Groningen LDLWW, Ajax Amsterdam WWWWL (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Ajax's Thilo Kehrer using his success to help Burundi's children".

Every fixture

Heerenveen v Excelsior, Friday, 16 October 2026 18:00 UTC

Heerenveen to win at 63%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 59%. Form: Heerenveen WWWLW, Excelsior LLLLD. Full preview

ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:30 UTC

PSV Eindhoven to win at 76.3%, most likely score 0-3, Over 2.5 at 78.8%. Form: ADO Den Haag LLWDD, PSV WDWLL. Full preview

Telstar v Feyenoord Rotterdam, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:00 UTC

Feyenoord Rotterdam to win at 73.2%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 60.1%. Form: Telstar WLLDL, Feyenoord LDDLW. Full preview

Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II, Saturday, 17 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Sparta Rotterdam to win at 52.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 68.6%. Form: Sparta WLWDL, Willem II LLLLL. Full preview

PEC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles, Sunday, 18 October 2026 10:15 UTC

Go Ahead Eagles to win at 50.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.3%. Form: PEC Zwolle WDWLL, Go Ahead Eagles LWLDD. Full preview

SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar, Sunday, 18 October 2026 12:30 UTC

AZ Alkmaar to win at 67.1%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 64.4%. Form: Cambuur WWDWD, AZ Alkmaar LLWDW. Full preview

FC Groningen v Ajax Amsterdam, Sunday, 18 October 2026 14:45 UTC

Ajax Amsterdam to win at 52.6%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 63.2%. Form: FC Groningen LDLWW, Ajax WWWWL. Full preview

FC Twente v FC Utrecht, Sunday, 18 October 2026 18:00 UTC

FC Twente to win at 70.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 70.8%. Form: FC Twente WWWLW, FC Utrecht LDWWL. Full preview

NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard, Sunday, 18 October 2026 18:00 UTC

NEC Nijmegen to win at 56.3%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 67.4%. Form: NEC LDWDD, Fortuna DWDDW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Eredivisie probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.