La Liga predictions: every match from 16 October to 18 October 2026

9 La Liga fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 2 clear favourites, 7 games the model calls close.

9 La Liga matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Sunday, 18 October 2026. The model makes 2 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Real Betis against Barcelona, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Real Betis9.7%vBarcelona68.8%Barcelona to win · 68.8%

Barcelona are a solid favourite at 68.8% (draw 21.5%, Real Betis 9.7%). Expected goals come out at 1.2 for Real Betis and 2.5 for Barcelona, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (70.7%), and both teams to score is likely at 64.6%. On Elo ratings Barcelona are the clearly stronger side (133 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Real Betis WDWLW, Barcelona WWLLW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Fan who struck Real Madrid's Eduardo Camavinga in Clásico identified by police".

Every fixture

Deportivo v Levante, Friday, 16 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Deportivo to win at 46.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 66.7%. Form: Deportivo WLDLD, Levante LLWDD. Full preview

Espanyol v Atlético Madrid, Saturday, 17 October 2026 12:00 UTC

Atlético Madrid to win at 60.1%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 52.5%. Form: Espanyol WLLDL, Atlético LWWDW. Full preview

Villarreal v Elche, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:15 UTC

Villarreal to win at 64.1%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 70.3%. Form: Villarreal LLWLD, Elche LWDDW. Full preview

Real Betis v Barcelona, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:00 UTC

Barcelona to win at 68.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.7%. Form: Betis WDWLW, Barcelona WWLLW. Full preview

Valencia v Athletic Club, Saturday, 17 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Athletic Club to win at 48.2%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 37.4%. Form: Valencia WLDDL, Athletic WWLDD. Full preview

Osasuna v Racing Santander, Sunday, 18 October 2026 12:00 UTC

Osasuna to win at 45.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 81.9%. Form: Osasuna LLWLD, Racing LWLDL. Full preview

Celta Vigo v Alavés, Sunday, 18 October 2026 14:15 UTC

Celta Vigo to win at 41.8%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 37.3%. Form: Celta Vigo LDWWL, Alavés LDLLD. Full preview

Málaga v Real Sociedad, Sunday, 18 October 2026 16:30 UTC

Real Sociedad to win at 48.1%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 40.7%. Form: Málaga LDLDL, Real Sociedad LWWWD. Full preview

Real Madrid v Sevilla, Sunday, 18 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Real Madrid to win at 74.8%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 65.3%. Form: Real Madrid WWWWW, Sevilla LWLDL. Full preview

A note on the numbers

La Liga probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.