Ligue 1 predictions: every match from 16 October to 26 October 2026

16 Ligue 1 fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 2 clear favourites, 14 games the model calls close.

16 Ligue 1 matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Monday, 26 October 2026. The model makes 2 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Paris Saint-Germain against Lyon, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Paris Saint-Germain66.1%vLyon13.8%PSG to win · 66.1%

Paris Saint-Germain are a solid favourite at 66.1% (draw 20.1%, Lyon 13.8%). Expected goals come out at 1.7 for Paris Saint-Germain and 1.1 for Lyon, with 2-1 the most likely exact score. The total sits close to the 2.5 line, and both teams to score is likely at 56.2%. On Elo ratings Paris Saint-Germain are the clearly stronger side (170 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Paris Saint-Germain WWWWW, Lyon LWWLW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "PSG-Lyon match moved to Monday amid Paris protests, NFL game".

Every fixture

Le Mans v Toulouse, Friday, 16 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Toulouse to win at 44%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 74.1%. Form: Le Mans LLWDD, Toulouse WDWDL. Full preview

Strasbourg v Paris Saint-Germain, Saturday, 17 October 2026 15:15 UTC

Paris Saint-Germain to win at 69%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.3%. Form: Strasbourg LLLDW, PSG WWWWW. Full preview

Lille v Brest, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Lille to win at 44.6%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 47.4%. Form: Lille LDLWL, Brest LDWLL. Full preview

Troyes v Lens, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Lens to win at 55.8%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 63.3%. Form: Troyes LLLLL, Lens WLWLW. Full preview

Angers v Marseille, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Marseille to win at 48.8%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 49.4%. Form: Angers LLWDL, Marseille LWLWL. Full preview

Le Havre AC v AJ Auxerre, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:15 UTC

Le Havre AC to win at 38.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 40.6%. Form: Le Havre AC LLLDL, Auxerre WLWWL. Full preview

Lorient v AS Monaco, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:15 UTC

AS Monaco to win at 50.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 49.5%. Form: Lorient WWLDW, Monaco WLWDW. Full preview

Paris FC v Stade Rennais, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:15 UTC

Paris FC to win at 37.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 56.5%. Form: Paris FC LWLWD, Rennes DLWWL. Full preview

Lyon v Nice, Sunday, 18 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Lyon to win at 50.5%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 47.5%. Form: Lyon LWWLW, Nice WLWWL. Full preview

AS Monaco v Lille, Sunday, 25 October 2026 14:00 UTC

AS Monaco to win at 45.4%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 35.2%. Form: Monaco WLWDW, Lille LDLWL. Full preview

Toulouse v Troyes, Sunday, 25 October 2026 16:15 UTC

Toulouse to win at 52.1%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 65.6%. Form: Toulouse WDWDL, Troyes LLLLL. Full preview

AJ Auxerre v Le Mans, Sunday, 25 October 2026 16:15 UTC

AJ Auxerre to win at 40.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 72.6%. Form: Auxerre WLWWL, Le Mans LLWDD. Full preview

Angers v Lorient, Sunday, 25 October 2026 16:15 UTC

Lorient to win at 43.1%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 41.2%. Form: Angers LLWDL, Lorient WWLDW. Full preview

Marseille v Le Havre AC, Sunday, 25 October 2026 16:15 UTC

Marseille to win at 55%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 54.5%. Form: Marseille LWLWL, Le Havre AC LLLDL. Full preview

Stade Rennais v Strasbourg, Sunday, 25 October 2026 16:15 UTC

Stade Rennais to win at 51.1%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 83.4%. Form: Rennes DLWWL, Strasbourg LLLDW. Full preview

Paris Saint-Germain v Lyon, Monday, 26 October 2026 19:30 UTC

Paris Saint-Germain to win at 66.1%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 53.7%. Form: PSG WWWWW, Lyon LWWLW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Ligue 1 probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.