Bundesliga predictions: every match from 16 October to 18 October 2026

9 Bundesliga fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 8 games the model calls close.

9 Bundesliga matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Sunday, 18 October 2026. The model makes 1 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Bayern Munich against RB Leipzig, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Bayern Munich76.6%vRB Leipzig7.4%Bayern to win · 76.6%

Bayern Munich are a strong favourite at 76.6% (draw 16%, RB Leipzig 7.4%). Expected goals come out at 2.8 for Bayern Munich and 1.3 for RB Leipzig, with 2-1 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (77.4%), and both teams to score is likely at 68.9%. On Elo ratings Bayern Munich are the clearly stronger side (282 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Bayern Munich WDWDW, RB Leipzig WWLLW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Harry Kane falls short of Cristiano Ronaldo Champions League goal streak record".

Every fixture

Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Cologne, Friday, 16 October 2026 18:30 UTC

Eintracht Frankfurt to win at 47.5%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 75.8%. Form: Frankfurt WLWLD, Cologne DDLWL. Full preview

1. FC Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:30 UTC

Borussia Dortmund to win at 64.1%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 64.5%. Form: Union Berlin DDDWL, Dortmund DWWDL. Full preview

Hamburg SV v VfB Stuttgart, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:30 UTC

VfB Stuttgart to win at 55.6%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 66.6%. Form: Hamburg LLWWW, Stuttgart LWLDL. Full preview

Schalke 04 v Mainz, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:30 UTC

Mainz to win at 46.4%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 35.1%. Form: Schalke LDLLD, Mainz LLWLW. Full preview

SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:30 UTC

FC Augsburg to win at 39%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 59.1%. Form: Elversberg WLWLD, Augsburg LDLDL. Full preview

Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:30 UTC

Werder Bremen to win at 50%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 29.7%. Form: Bremen WWDDW, Paderborn DWDLW. Full preview

Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:30 UTC

Bayern Munich to win at 76.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 77.4%. Form: Bayern WDWDW, RB Leipzig WWLLW. Full preview

Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:30 UTC

Bayer Leverkusen to win at 53%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 69%. Form: Leverkusen LLWWW, Freiburg WLLLW. Full preview

Borussia Mönchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:30 UTC

TSG Hoffenheim to win at 48%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 74.3%. Form: Gladbach DWLLL, Hoffenheim LWWWL. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Bundesliga probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.