Eredivisie predictions: every match from 16 October to 25 October 2026

14 Eredivisie fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 5 clear favourites, 9 games the model calls close.

14 Eredivisie matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Sunday, 25 October 2026. The model makes 5 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is PSV Eindhoven against Feyenoord Rotterdam, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

PSV Eindhoven40.8%vFeyenoord Rotterdam31.3%PSV to win · 40.8%

PSV Eindhoven are a marginal favourite at 40.8% (draw 27.9%, Feyenoord Rotterdam 31.3%). Expected goals come out at 2.2 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.9 for Feyenoord Rotterdam, with 2-1 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (77.2%), and both teams to score is likely at 76.1%. Bookmakers price PSV Eindhoven at about 46.3%, so the model is 5.5 points below the market. On Elo ratings PSV Eindhoven are the clearly stronger side (127 points of edge including home advantage). Form: PSV Eindhoven WLLWL, Feyenoord Rotterdam LWWWW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "USMNT's Ricardo Pepi calls injury minor setback, says recovery started".

Every fixture

Heerenveen v Excelsior, Friday, 16 October 2026 18:00 UTC

Heerenveen to win at 63%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 59%. Form: Heerenveen WWLWD, Excelsior LLDLD. Full preview

ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:30 UTC

PSV Eindhoven to win at 76.3%, most likely score 0-3, Over 2.5 at 78.8%. Form: ADO Den Haag LWDDL, PSV WLLWL. Full preview

Telstar v Feyenoord Rotterdam, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:00 UTC

Feyenoord Rotterdam to win at 73.2%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 60.1%. Form: Telstar LLDLD, Feyenoord LWWWW. Full preview

Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II, Saturday, 17 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Sparta Rotterdam to win at 52.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 68.6%. Form: Sparta WDLLD, Willem II LLLLL. Full preview

PEC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles, Sunday, 18 October 2026 10:15 UTC

Go Ahead Eagles to win at 50.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.3%. Form: PEC Zwolle DWLLL, Go Ahead Eagles WLDDD. Full preview

SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar, Sunday, 18 October 2026 12:30 UTC

AZ Alkmaar to win at 67.1%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 64.4%. Form: Cambuur WDWDW, AZ Alkmaar WDWLW. Full preview

FC Groningen v Ajax Amsterdam, Sunday, 18 October 2026 14:45 UTC

Ajax Amsterdam to win at 52.6%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 63.2%. Form: FC Groningen LWWDD, Ajax WWLDD. Full preview

FC Twente v FC Utrecht, Sunday, 18 October 2026 18:00 UTC

FC Twente to win at 70.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 70.8%. Form: FC Twente WLWDW, FC Utrecht DWWLW. Full preview

NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard, Sunday, 18 October 2026 18:00 UTC

NEC Nijmegen to win at 56.3%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 67.4%. Form: NEC WDDDD, Fortuna DDWLW. Full preview

Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior, Sunday, 25 October 2026 11:15 UTC

Excelsior to win at 36.3%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 66%. Form: Fortuna DDWLW, Excelsior LLDLD. Full preview

NEC Nijmegen v FC Groningen, Sunday, 25 October 2026 13:30 UTC

FC Groningen to win at 36.1%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.5%. Form: NEC WDDDD, FC Groningen LWWDD. Full preview

PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord Rotterdam, Sunday, 25 October 2026 13:30 UTC

PSV Eindhoven to win at 40.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 77.2%. Form: PSV WLLWL, Feyenoord LWWWW. Full preview

Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax Amsterdam, Sunday, 25 October 2026 15:45 UTC

Ajax Amsterdam to win at 65.5%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 73.5%. Form: Sparta WDLLD, Ajax WWLDD. Full preview

AZ Alkmaar v FC Twente, Sunday, 25 October 2026 19:00 UTC

AZ Alkmaar to win at 37.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 49.7%. Form: AZ Alkmaar WDWLW, FC Twente WLWDW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Eredivisie probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.