RB Leipzig v Man City headlines 4 November: 40 predictions, the stakes and where the value is
40 games across 11 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.
Wednesday, 4 November 2026 brings 40 games across ATP Rolex Paris Masters, WTA Angola Ladies Open, WTA Chennai Open, Europa League and 7 more. 5 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is RB Leipzig against Manchester City in the Champions League. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.
The big one: RB Leipzig v Manchester City
RB Leipzig9%v
Manchester City68.8%Man City to win · 68.8%Why it matters: RB Leipzig sit 28th (3 pts), Man City 12th (6 pts).
Manchester City are a solid favourite at 68.8% (draw 22.2%, RB Leipzig 9%). Expected goals come out at 1 for RB Leipzig and 3.1 for Manchester City, with 1-3 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (77.8%), and both teams to score is likely at 62.5%. Form: RB Leipzig WWLLW, Manchester City LLWWL (most recent first).
Playoff games, table clashes and streaks
- AEK Athens v Real Madrid (Champions League, 17:45 UTC): AEK Athens sit 27th (3 pts), Real Madrid 5th (9 pts); Real Madrid have won 6 in a row. Model: Real Madrid 82.8%.
- PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge (Champions League, 20:00 UTC): PSV sit 21st (4 pts), Club Brugge 13th (6 pts); Club Brugge have won 7 in a row. Model: PSV 52.9%.
- Lens v Como (Champions League, 20:00 UTC): Lens sit 26th (3 pts), Como 11th (6 pts); Como have won 5 in a row. Model: Como 56.2%.
- Stade Rennais v Olympiacos (Europa League, 15:30 UTC): Rennes sit 13th (5 pts), Olympiacos 5th (9 pts); Olympiacos have won 8 in a row. Model: Rennes 45%.
- Flamengo v Grêmio (Brasileirao, 22:30 UTC): Flamengo sit 1st (73 pts), Grêmio 17th (37 pts); Flamengo have won 4 in a row. Model: Flamengo 79.2%.
Where the model and the bookmakers disagree
A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 6 games clear that bar today.
| Match | Pick | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking FK v Sabah FK | Viking FK | 80.4% | 72.6% | +7.8 |
| Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis | Dortmund | 66.6% | 60% | +6.6 |
| FC Porto v Napoli | FC Porto | 60.6% | 54.5% | +6.1 |
| Oxford United v Reading | Reading | 44.8% | 39.2% | +5.6 |
| Athletico-PR v Vasco da Gama | Athletico-PR | 39.2% | 44.8% | -5.6 |
| Lens v Como | Como | 56.2% | 51.2% | +5 |
A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.
Upset watch
- Stade Rennais (45%) over Olympiacos, who have won 8 straight. Draw 24.2%, Olympiacos 30.8%.
- PSV Eindhoven (52.9%) over Club Brugge, who have won 7 straight. Draw 23.1%, Club Brugge 24%.
- Cúcuta Deportivo (44.1%) over Independiente Santa Fe, with Cúcuta on a 2-game losing run. Draw 23.7%, Santa Fe 32.2%.
- KV Kortrijk (46.4%) over KV Mechelen, who have won 2 straight. Draw 23.4%, KV Mechelen 30.2%.
- West Ham United (49.8%) over Cardiff City, with West Ham on a 2-game losing run. Draw 26.1%, Cardiff 24.2%.
Goals markets
- Over 2.5 lean: Fenerbahce v Liverpool, 80.4% (expected goals 1.1 and 3.2)
- Over 2.5 lean: AEK Athens v Real Madrid, 78.6% (expected goals 1 and 3.2)
- Over 2.5 lean: Cardiff City v West Ham United, 78.3% (expected goals 1.6 and 2.5)
- Under 2.5 lean: Stade Rennais v Olympiacos, 85.4%
- Under 2.5 lean: KV Kortrijk v KV Mechelen, 68.2%
- Both teams to score: Cardiff City v West Ham United is the strongest at 74.9%
Yesterday in one line
55 of 102 picks landed (53.9%), against a running 57% over 2550 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review
Every game today, 40 predictions
- 11:35 UTC Luca Van Assche v Learner Tien (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): L. Tien 71.6%
- 12:25 UTC Isabella Shinikova v Gina Feistel (WTA Angola Ladies Open): G. Feistel 60.6%
- 12:40 UTC Alexander Zverev v Lorenzo Musetti (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): A. Zverev 66.2%
- 12:55 UTC Janice Tjen v Joanna Garland (WTA Chennai Open): J. Tjen 52.4%
- 13:05 UTC Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Alex de Minaur (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): A. de Minaur 80%
- 13:30 UTC Ignacio Buse v Daniil Medvedev (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): D. Medvedev 77.5%
- 14:00 UTC Novak Djokovic v Rinky Hijikata (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): N. Djokovic 80.5%
- 14:30 UTC Nuno Borges v Karen Khachanov (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): K. Khachanov 55.5%
- 14:30 UTC Alex Molcan v Taylor Fritz (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): T. Fritz 64.2%
- 15:30 UTC Stade Rennais v Olympiacos (Europa League): Rennes 45%, likely 1-0
- 15:30 UTC Diana Martynov v Yasmine Kabbaj (WTA Angola Ladies Open): Y. Kabbaj 65.7%
- 16:00 UTC Leolia Jeanjean v Carolina Alves (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): L. Jeanjean 83.7%
- 16:00 UTC Matteo Berrettini v Ugo Humbert (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): M. Berrettini 54.1%
- 16:00 UTC Irene Burillo v Luisina Giovannini (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): I. Burillo 51.6%
- 16:00 UTC Laura Samson v Carole Monnet (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): L. Samson 55.8%
- 16:00 UTC Thiago Agustin Tirante v Jan-Lennard Struff (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): J. Struff 63.8%
- 17:30 UTC Despina Papamichail v Renata Zarazua (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): R. Zarazua 64.9%
- 17:45 UTC AEK Athens v Real Madrid (Champions League): Real Madrid 82.8%, likely 0-3
- 17:45 UTC Fenerbahce v Liverpool (Champions League): Liverpool 71%, likely 1-3
- 18:00 UTC Alex Michelsen v Carlos Alcaraz (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): C. Alcaraz 84.6%
- 18:00 UTC Julia Grabher v Julia Riera (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): J. Grabher 62.7%
- 18:00 UTC Alice Tubello v Marina Bassols Ribera (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): A. Tubello 58.2%
- 19:30 UTC KV Kortrijk v KV Mechelen (Belgian Pro League): KV Kortrijk 46.4%
- 19:30 UTC Arthur Fils v Tomas Machac (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): A. Fils 71.9%
- 19:30 UTC Leyre Romero Gormaz v Solana Sierra (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): L. Romero Gormaz 52%
- 19:45 UTC Cardiff City v West Ham United (Championship): West Ham 49.8%, likely 1-2
- 19:45 UTC Wrexham v Middlesbrough (Championship): Boro 56.6%, likely 1-2
- 19:45 UTC Oxford United v Reading (League One): Reading 44.8%
- 20:00 UTC Bristol City v Wolverhampton Wanderers (Championship): Wolves 49.9%, likely 0-1
- 20:00 UTC Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis (Champions League): Dortmund 66.6%
- 20:00 UTC FC Porto v Napoli (Champions League): FC Porto 60.6%
- 20:00 UTC Lens v Como (Champions League): Como 56.2%, likely 0-3
- 20:00 UTC PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge (Champions League): PSV 52.9%
- 20:00 UTC RB Leipzig v Manchester City (Champions League): Man City 68.8%, likely 1-3
- 20:00 UTC Slavia Prague v Arsenal (Champions League): Arsenal 84.1%, likely 0-2
- 20:00 UTC Viking FK v Sabah FK (Champions League): Viking FK 80.4%, likely 2-1
- 22:00 UTC Jazmin Ortenzi v Bianca Andreescu (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): B. Andreescu 76.7%
- 22:30 UTC Athletico-PR v Vasco da Gama (Brasileirao): Athletico-PR 39.2%, likely 2-1
- 22:30 UTC Flamengo v Grêmio (Brasileirao): Flamengo 79.2%, likely 2-0
- 23:30 UTC Cúcuta Deportivo v Independiente Santa Fe (Primera A): Cúcuta 44.1%
How to read these numbers
Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.