Premier League predictions: every match from 17 October to 2 November 2026

19 Premier League fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 18 games the model calls close.

19 Premier League matches are scheduled between Saturday, 17 October 2026 and Monday, 2 November 2026. The model makes 1 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Liverpool against Arsenal, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Liverpool29.7%vArsenal44.5%Arsenal to win · 44.5%

Arsenal are a marginal favourite at 44.5% (draw 25.8%, Liverpool 29.7%). Expected goals come out at 0.9 for Liverpool and 1.4 for Arsenal, with 0-1 the most likely exact score. The model expects a tight game, Under 2.5 at 62.1%, and both teams to score is unlikely at 44.1%. Bookmakers price Arsenal at about 40.2%, so the model is 4.3 points more confident than the market. Form: Liverpool WWWWL, Arsenal WDWWW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Global power ranking: The top 20 soccer teams in the world, ranked!".

Every fixture

Everton v Chelsea, Saturday, 17 October 2026 11:30 UTC

Chelsea to win at 47.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 62.3%. Form: Everton LLDWD, Chelsea LWWLD. Full preview

Brentford v Liverpool, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Liverpool to win at 36.7%, Over 2.5 at 55.1%. Form: Brentford DLDWD, Liverpool WWWWL. Full preview

Fulham v Hull City, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Fulham to win at 59.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 36.3%. Form: Fulham WWLDD, Hull DLDLD. Full preview

Manchester City v Ipswich Town, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Manchester City to win at 70.3%, most likely score 3-0, Over 2.5 at 76.2%. Form: Man City LWWLW, Ipswich DLWLW. Full preview

Newcastle United v Aston Villa, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:30 UTC

Newcastle United to win at 38.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 67%. Form: Newcastle WLLWL, Aston Villa WWWWD. Full preview

AFC Bournemouth v Sunderland, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

AFC Bournemouth to win at 41.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 55.5%. Form: Bournemouth WWWWL, Sunderland DDLWL. Full preview

Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Brighton & Hove Albion to win at 56.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 67.9%. Form: Brighton LDWWW, C Palace LDLLW. Full preview

Leeds United v Manchester United, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Leeds United to win at 36.9%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 47.9%. Form: Leeds DDLDW, Man United LLDLD. Full preview

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:30 UTC

Arsenal to win at 64.2%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 38%. Form: Nottm Forest DLLLW, Arsenal WDWWW. Full preview

Chelsea v Manchester United, Saturday, 31 October 2026 12:30 UTC

Chelsea to win at 52.3%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 69.5%. Form: Chelsea LWWLD, Man Utd LLDLD. Full preview

AFC Bournemouth v Leeds United, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:00 UTC

AFC Bournemouth to win at 41.7%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.9%. Form: Bournemouth WWWWL, Leeds DDLDW. Full preview

Brentford v Nottingham Forest, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:00 UTC

Brentford to win at 40.8%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 46.4%. Form: Brentford DLDWD, Nottm Forest DLLLW. Full preview

Coventry City v Sunderland, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:00 UTC

Sunderland to win at 46.1%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 36.8%. Form: Coventry LLWWL, Sunderland DDLWL. Full preview

Hull City v Ipswich Town, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:00 UTC

Ipswich Town to win at 40%, Over 2.5 at 52.5%. Form: Hull DLDLD, Ipswich DLWLW. Full preview

Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:00 UTC

Manchester City to win at 55.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 63.8%. Form: Man City LWWLW, Brighton LDWWW. Full preview

Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace, Saturday, 31 October 2026 17:30 UTC

Tottenham Hotspur to win at 62.9%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 53%. Form: Spurs WWDLD, C Palace LDLLW. Full preview

Aston Villa v Fulham, Saturday, 31 October 2026 20:00 UTC

Aston Villa to win at 44.8%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.3%. Form: Aston Villa WWWWD, Fulham WWLDD. Full preview

Liverpool v Arsenal, Sunday, 1 November 2026 16:30 UTC

Arsenal to win at 44.5%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 37.9%. Form: Liverpool WWWWL, Arsenal WDWWW. Full preview

Newcastle United v Everton, Monday, 2 November 2026 20:00 UTC

Newcastle United to win at 36%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 51.7%. Form: Newcastle WLLWL, Everton LLDWD. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Premier League probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.