Serie A predictions: every match from 16 October to 24 October 2026

13 Serie A fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 2 clear favourites, 11 games the model calls close.

13 Serie A matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Saturday, 24 October 2026. The model makes 2 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Napoli against AS Roma, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Napoli26.7%vAS Roma46%AS Roma to win · 46%

AS Roma are a marginal favourite at 48% (draw 27.4%, Napoli 24.6%). Expected goals come out at 0.8 for Napoli and 1.2 for AS Roma, with 0-1 the most likely exact score. The model expects a tight game, Under 2.5 at 66.1%, and both teams to score is unlikely at 41.5%. Bookmakers price AS Roma at about 41.7%, so the model is 6.3 points more confident than the market. Form: Napoli WLLWD, AS Roma WWLDD (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Scott McTominay scores timely brace as Napoli overcome Bodo/Glimt".

Every fixture

Frosinone v Sassuolo, Friday, 16 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Sassuolo to win at 36.7%, Over 2.5 at 57.4%. Form: Frosinone WLWDW, Sassuolo LDLWD. Full preview

Venezia v Napoli, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Napoli to win at 61.1%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 67.9%. Form: Venezia WLLLL, Napoli WLLWD. Full preview

Bologna v Internazionale, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:00 UTC

Internazionale to win at 63.6%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 63.4%. Form: Bologna LWDLD, Inter Milan WLWDW. Full preview

AS Roma v Genoa, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:45 UTC

AS Roma to win at 57.7%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 56%. Form: AS Roma WWLDD, Genoa LWLDL. Full preview

Udinese v Lecce, Sunday, 18 October 2026 10:30 UTC

Udinese to win at 47.7%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 50.3%. Form: Udinese LLLLL, Lecce WLLWL. Full preview

Fiorentina v Como, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Como to win at 49.5%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 49.3%. Form: Fiorentina LLDWL, Como WLDLW. Full preview

AC Milan v Atalanta, Sunday, 18 October 2026 16:00 UTC

AC Milan to win at 50.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 41.8%. Form: Milan WWDWL, Atalanta LWWLL. Full preview

Juventus v Lazio, Sunday, 18 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Juventus to win at 57.5%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 37%. Form: Juventus LWDWW, Lazio WWWDW. Full preview

Torino v Monza, Friday, 23 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Torino to win at 48.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 76.9%. Form: Torino WWDLW, Monza WLWLD. Full preview

Cagliari v Bologna, Saturday, 24 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Bologna to win at 50.4%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 34%. Form: Cagliari LDWWW, Bologna LWDLD. Full preview

Como v Sassuolo, Saturday, 24 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Como to win at 69%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 62.9%. Form: Como WLDLW, Sassuolo LDLWD. Full preview

Napoli v AS Roma, Saturday, 24 October 2026 16:00 UTC

AS Roma to win at 48%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 33.9%. Form: Napoli WLLWD, AS Roma WWLDD. Full preview

Lazio v Parma, Saturday, 24 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Lazio to win at 77.8%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 43.1%. Form: Lazio WWWDW, Parma LLWLD. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Serie A probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.