Eredivisie predictions: every match from 16 October to 1 November 2026

18 Eredivisie fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 6 clear favourites, 12 games the model calls close.

18 Eredivisie matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Sunday, 1 November 2026. The model makes 6 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Ajax Amsterdam against AZ Alkmaar, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Ajax Amsterdam52.8%vAZ Alkmaar21.7%Ajax to win · 52.8%

Ajax Amsterdam are a narrow favourite at 52.8% (draw 25.5%, AZ Alkmaar 21.7%). Expected goals come out at 2 for Ajax Amsterdam and 1.1 for AZ Alkmaar, with 2-1 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (60.4%), and both teams to score is likely at 58.9%. On Elo ratings Ajax Amsterdam are the clearly stronger side (133 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Ajax Amsterdam WWWLD, AZ Alkmaar LWDWL (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Sunderland 1-0 AZ Alkmaar: Enzo Le Fee penalty gives hosts historic win - as it happened".

Every fixture

Heerenveen v Excelsior, Friday, 16 October 2026 18:00 UTC

Heerenveen to win at 63%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 59%. Form: Heerenveen WWLWD, Excelsior LLLDL. Full preview

ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:30 UTC

PSV Eindhoven to win at 76.3%, most likely score 0-3, Over 2.5 at 78.8%. Form: ADO Den Haag LWDDL, PSV DWLLW. Full preview

Telstar v Feyenoord Rotterdam, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:00 UTC

Feyenoord Rotterdam to win at 73.2%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 60.1%. Form: Telstar LLDLD, Feyenoord DLWWW. Full preview

Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II, Saturday, 17 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Sparta Rotterdam to win at 52.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 68.6%. Form: Sparta LWDLL, Willem II LLLLL. Full preview

PEC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles, Sunday, 18 October 2026 10:15 UTC

Go Ahead Eagles to win at 50.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.3%. Form: PEC Zwolle DWLLL, Go Ahead Eagles WLDDD. Full preview

SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar, Sunday, 18 October 2026 12:30 UTC

AZ Alkmaar to win at 67.1%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 64.4%. Form: Cambuur WDWDW, AZ Alkmaar LWDWL. Full preview

FC Groningen v Ajax Amsterdam, Sunday, 18 October 2026 14:45 UTC

Ajax Amsterdam to win at 52.6%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 63.2%. Form: FC Groningen DLWWD, Ajax WWWLD. Full preview

FC Twente v FC Utrecht, Sunday, 18 October 2026 18:00 UTC

FC Twente to win at 70.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 70.8%. Form: FC Twente WWLWD, FC Utrecht DWWLW. Full preview

NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard, Sunday, 18 October 2026 18:00 UTC

NEC Nijmegen to win at 56.3%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 67.4%. Form: NEC DWDDD, Fortuna WDDWL. Full preview

Feyenoord Rotterdam v Fortuna Sittard, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:30 UTC

Feyenoord Rotterdam to win at 81.1%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 73.5%. Form: Feyenoord DLWWW, Fortuna WDDWL. Full preview

Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen, Saturday, 31 October 2026 17:45 UTC

Heerenveen to win at 40%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 62.1%. Form: Heerenveen WWLWD, NEC DWDDD. Full preview

PSV Eindhoven v Willem II, Saturday, 31 October 2026 17:45 UTC

PSV Eindhoven to win at 84.4%, most likely score 3-0, Over 2.5 at 74.3%. Form: PSV DWLLW, Willem II LLLLL. Full preview

Ajax Amsterdam v AZ Alkmaar, Saturday, 31 October 2026 20:00 UTC

Ajax Amsterdam to win at 52.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 60.4%. Form: Ajax WWWLD, AZ Alkmaar LWDWL. Full preview

SC Cambuur v Go Ahead Eagles, Saturday, 31 October 2026 20:00 UTC

Go Ahead Eagles to win at 44.7%, Over 2.5 at 84.5%. Form: Cambuur WDWDW, Go Ahead Eagles WLDDD. Full preview

PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag, Sunday, 1 November 2026 11:15 UTC

PEC Zwolle to win at 39.1%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 63.5%. Form: PEC Zwolle DWLLL, ADO Den Haag LWDDL. Full preview

Excelsior v FC Twente, Sunday, 1 November 2026 13:30 UTC

FC Twente to win at 63%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 53.3%. Form: Excelsior LLLDL, FC Twente WWLWD. Full preview

Telstar v FC Utrecht, Sunday, 1 November 2026 13:30 UTC

FC Utrecht to win at 43.5%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 66.5%. Form: Telstar LLDLD, FC Utrecht DWWLW. Full preview

FC Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam, Sunday, 1 November 2026 15:45 UTC

FC Groningen to win at 47.5%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 77.7%. Form: FC Groningen DLWWD, Sparta LWDLL. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Eredivisie probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.