Europa League predictions: every match from 4 November to 5 November 2026

11 Europa League fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 3 clear favourites, 8 games the model calls close.

11 Europa League matches are scheduled between Wednesday, 4 November 2026 and Thursday, 5 November 2026. The model makes 3 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Bayer Leverkusen against Marseille, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Bayer Leverkusen82.4%vMarseille4%Leverkusen to win · 82.4%

Bayer Leverkusen are a strong favourite at 82.4% (draw 13.6%, Marseille 4%). Expected goals come out at 3.2 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.2 for Marseille, with 3-0 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (65.8%), and both teams to score is unlikely at 17.6%. On Elo ratings Bayer Leverkusen are the clearly stronger side (148 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Bayer Leverkusen LLWWW, Marseille WLWLW (most recent first).

Every fixture

Stade Rennais v Olympiacos, Wednesday, 4 November 2026 15:30 UTC

Stade Rennais to win at 46.4%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 14.6%. Form: Rennes LWDLW, Olympiacos WWWWW. Full preview

AC Milan v Ferencvaros, Thursday, 5 November 2026 17:45 UTC

AC Milan to win at 87.2%, Over 2.5 at 70%. Form: Milan WLWLW, Ferencvaros WWWLW. Full preview

Anderlecht v RB Salzburg, Thursday, 5 November 2026 17:45 UTC

Anderlecht to win at 48.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 53%. Form: Anderlecht WLWLW, RB Salzburg WDWLD. Full preview

Crystal Palace v TSG Hoffenheim, Thursday, 5 November 2026 17:45 UTC

Crystal Palace to win at 51.6%, most likely score 3-1, Over 2.5 at 88%. Form: C Palace LLDLL, Hoffenheim LWWWL. Full preview

Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia Bialystok, Thursday, 5 November 2026 17:45 UTC

Levski Sofia to win at 49%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 43.8%. Form: Levski Sofia WDL, Jagiellonia LWL. Full preview

Lillestrom v Viktoria Plzen, Thursday, 5 November 2026 17:45 UTC

Viktoria Plzen to win at 47.1%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 43.6%. Form: Lillestrom WLWDD, Viktoria Plzen LLLDD. Full preview

NEC Nijmegen v Omonia Nicosia, Thursday, 5 November 2026 17:45 UTC

NEC Nijmegen to win at 61.5%, Over 2.5 at 83.1%. Form: NEC LDWDD, Omonia LWW. Full preview

Real Sociedad v Lyon, Thursday, 5 November 2026 17:45 UTC

Real Sociedad to win at 51.6%, most likely score 3-0, Over 2.5 at 78.6%. Form: Real Sociedad WWWDW, Lyon LLWWL. Full preview

Sparta Prague v AFC Bournemouth, Thursday, 5 November 2026 17:45 UTC

AFC Bournemouth to win at 70.1%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 36.1%. Form: Sparta LDW, Bournemouth WWWWW. Full preview

AZ Alkmaar v Juventus, Thursday, 5 November 2026 20:00 UTC

Juventus to win at 56.9%, Over 2.5 at 55.6%. Form: AZ Alkmaar LLWDW, Juventus LWDLW. Full preview

Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille, Thursday, 5 November 2026 20:00 UTC

Bayer Leverkusen to win at 82.4%, most likely score 3-0, Over 2.5 at 65.8%. Form: Leverkusen LLWWW, Marseille WLWLW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Europa League probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.