La Liga predictions: every match from 16 October to 24 October 2026
15 La Liga fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 3 clear favourites, 12 games the model calls close.
15 La Liga matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Saturday, 24 October 2026. The model makes 3 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Real Betis against Barcelona, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.
Headline fixture
Real Betis9.7%v
Barcelona68.8%Barcelona to win · 68.8%Barcelona are a solid favourite at 68.8% (draw 21.5%, Real Betis 9.7%). Expected goals come out at 1.2 for Real Betis and 2.5 for Barcelona, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (70.7%), and both teams to score is likely at 64.6%. On Elo ratings Barcelona are the clearly stronger side (133 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Real Betis LWWDW, Barcelona LWWWW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Brazil winger Antony's home burgled during Real Betis Champions League match".
Every fixture
Deportivo v Levante, Friday, 16 October 2026 19:00 UTC
Deportivo to win at 46.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 66.7%. Form: Deportivo DLDLD, Levante DDLLD. Full preview
Espanyol v Atlético Madrid, Saturday, 17 October 2026 12:00 UTC
Atlético Madrid to win at 60.1%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 52.5%. Form: Espanyol LDLLW, Atlético DWWWW. Full preview
Villarreal v Elche, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:15 UTC
Villarreal to win at 64.1%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 70.3%. Form: Villarreal LDWLW, Elche DDWLD. Full preview
Real Betis v Barcelona, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:00 UTC
Barcelona to win at 68.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.7%. Form: Betis LWWDW, Barcelona LWWWW. Full preview
Valencia v Athletic Club, Saturday, 17 October 2026 19:00 UTC
Athletic Club to win at 48.2%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 37.4%. Form: Valencia DDLWL, Athletic DDDDW. Full preview
Osasuna v Racing Santander, Sunday, 18 October 2026 12:00 UTC
Osasuna to win at 45.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 81.9%. Form: Osasuna WLDLL, Racing LDLLW. Full preview
Celta Vigo v Alavés, Sunday, 18 October 2026 14:15 UTC
Celta Vigo to win at 41.8%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 37.3%. Form: Celta Vigo WLDWL, Alavés LLDLL. Full preview
Málaga v Real Sociedad, Sunday, 18 October 2026 16:30 UTC
Real Sociedad to win at 48.1%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 40.7%. Form: Málaga LDLLD, Real Sociedad WDWWL. Full preview
Real Madrid v Sevilla, Sunday, 18 October 2026 19:00 UTC
Real Madrid to win at 74.8%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 65.3%. Form: Real Madrid WWWLW, Sevilla LDLWW. Full preview
Levante v Athletic Club, Wednesday, 21 October 2026 18:00 UTC
Athletic Club to win at 49.2%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 43.4%. Form: Levante DDLLD, Athletic DDDDW. Full preview
Alavés v Málaga, Friday, 23 October 2026 19:00 UTC
Alavés to win at 56%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 51.8%. Form: Alavés LLDLL, Málaga LDLLD. Full preview
Rayo Vallecano v Elche, Saturday, 24 October 2026 12:00 UTC
Rayo Vallecano to win at 59.4%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 50.7%. Form: Rayo DDDWL, Elche DDWLD. Full preview
Racing Santander v Espanyol, Saturday, 24 October 2026 14:15 UTC
Racing Santander to win at 41.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 67.4%. Form: Racing LDLLW, Espanyol LDLLW. Full preview
Valencia v Villarreal, Saturday, 24 October 2026 16:30 UTC
Villarreal to win at 50.3%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 49.2%. Form: Valencia DDLWL, Villarreal LDWLW. Full preview
Atlético Madrid v Deportivo, Saturday, 24 October 2026 19:00 UTC
Atlético Madrid to win at 87.3%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 56%. Form: Atlético DWWWW, Deportivo DLDLD. Full preview
A note on the numbers
La Liga probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.