Liga MX predictions: every match from 17 October to 19 October 2026

9 Liga MX fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 2 clear favourites, 7 games the model calls close.

9 Liga MX matches are scheduled between Saturday, 17 October 2026 and Monday, 19 October 2026. The model makes 2 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Toluca against Atlético de San Luis, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Toluca67.8%vAtlético de San Luis11.4%Toluca to win · 67.8%

Toluca are a solid favourite at 67.8% (draw 20.8%, Atlético de San Luis 11.4%). Expected goals come out at 2.7 for Toluca and 1.1 for Atlético de San Luis, with 2-1 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (72.6%), and both teams to score is likely at 63.3%. On Elo ratings Toluca are the clearly stronger side (258 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Toluca DDDDL, Atlético de San Luis LWWDL (most recent first).

Every fixture

Necaxa v Atlas, Saturday, 17 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Atlas to win at 38.4%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 60.4%. Form: Necaxa LDLLD, Atlas WWLWD. Full preview

Atlante v Pumas UNAM, Saturday, 17 October 2026 03:00 UTC

Pumas UNAM to win at 38%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 54.5%. Form: Atlante LLWLL, UNAM WDLWD. Full preview

Tijuana v Puebla, Saturday, 17 October 2026 03:05 UTC

Tijuana to win at 45.4%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.4%. Form: Tijuana DDWDD, Puebla LLLDD. Full preview

Santos v Querétaro, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:00 UTC

Santos to win at 39.1%, Over 2.5 at 38%. Form: Santos WLWWW, Queretaro LLLLW. Full preview

Guadalajara v Tigres UANL, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:07 UTC

Guadalajara to win at 48.4%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 45.9%. Form: Guadalajara WWWDD, Tigres LDLDW. Full preview

León v América, Sunday, 18 October 2026 01:00 UTC

América to win at 47.4%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 55%. Form: León LDWLD, América DDLWW. Full preview

Toluca v Atlético de San Luis, Sunday, 18 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Toluca to win at 67.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 72.6%. Form: Toluca DDDDL, Atl. San Luis LWWDL. Full preview

Cruz Azul v FC Juárez, Sunday, 18 October 2026 03:10 UTC

Cruz Azul to win at 67.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 75.6%. Form: Cruz Azul WWWWD, Juárez WDLLD. Full preview

Monterrey v Pachuca, Monday, 19 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Monterrey to win at 58.5%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 53.7%. Form: Monterrey DLWWD, Pachuca WWLLD. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Liga MX probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.