Bayern v Arsenal headlines 21 October: 29 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

29 games across 12 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

Wednesday, 21 October 2026 brings 29 games across ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C, WTA BNB Ningbo Open, ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open and 8 more. 7 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Bayern Munich against Arsenal in the Champions League. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.

The big one: Bayern Munich v Arsenal

Bayern Munich41.7%2-2Arsenal32.6%Bayern to win · 41.7%

Why it matters: Bayern sit 12th (4 pts), Arsenal 8th (6 pts); Arsenal have won 3 in a row.

Bayern Munich are a marginal favourite at 45.6% (draw 24.8%, Arsenal 29.7%). Expected goals come out at 1.1 for Bayern Munich and 1.4 for Arsenal. The total sits close to the 2.5 line, and both teams to score is a coin flip at 52.1%. Form: Bayern Munich WDDWW, Arsenal WWWLW (most recent first).

The two sides have met 1 times recently: Bayern Munich won 0, Arsenal won 1 and 0 were draws, averaging 4 goals a game with both teams scoring in 100% of them.

Team news: Transfer rumors, news: Barcelona, Bayern eye Aston Villa's Manzambi. Both Barcelona and Bayern Munich are competing to sign Aston Villa's Johan Manzambi. Transfer Talk has the latest.

Playoff games, table clashes and streaks

• Real Madrid v RB Leipzig (Champions League, 19:00 UTC): Real Madrid sit 9th (6 pts), RB Leipzig 23rd (3 pts); Real Madrid have won 3 in a row. Model: Real Madrid 86%.
• Lille v Galatasaray (Champions League, 16:45 UTC): a relegation six-pointer, 34th against 35th. Model: Lille 43.7%.
• Orlando Magic v Atlanta Hawks (NBA, 23:00 UTC): Magic sit 19th (0-0), Hawks 4th (0-0); Hawks have won 4 in a row. Model: Magic 57.2%.
• Club Brugge v Lens (Champions League, 19:00 UTC): Club Brugge sit 20th (3 pts), Lens 21st (3 pts); Club Brugge have won 4 in a row. Model: Club Brugge 52.4%.
• Real Betis v Feyenoord Rotterdam (Champions League, 19:00 UTC): Betis sit 10th (6 pts), Feyenoord 24th (3 pts); Feyenoord have won 5 in a row. Model: Betis 62.2%.
• Ottawa Senators v Florida Panthers (NHL, 23:30 UTC): Senators sit 7th (6-3), Panthers 13th (5-2); Panthers have won 3 in a row. Model: Senators 51.9%.

Where the model and the bookmakers disagree

A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 6 games clear that bar today.

A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.

Upset watch

• Bayern Munich (45.6%) over Arsenal, who have won 3 straight. Draw 24.8%, Arsenal 29.7%.
• Ottawa Senators (51.9%) over Florida Panthers, who have won 3 straight. Panthers 48.1%.
• Lille (43.7%) over Galatasaray. Draw 26.4%, Galatasaray 29.9%.
• Deportivo Cali (45.6%) over Llaneros FC. Draw 26.8%, Llaneros FC 27.6%.
• Washington Wizards (53.1%) over Milwaukee Bucks, with Wizards on a 2-game losing run. Bucks 46.9%.

Goals markets

• Over 2.5 lean: Real Betis v Feyenoord Rotterdam, 88.4% (expected goals 3.2 and 1.9)
• Over 2.5 lean: Club Brugge v Lens, 84.1% (expected goals 3 and 1.7)
• Over 2.5 lean: Aston Villa v Viking FK, 77.7% (expected goals 3.2 and 0.9)
• Under 2.5 lean: Llaneros FC v Deportivo Cali, 74.3%
• Under 2.5 lean: Levante v Athletic Club, 56.6%
• Both teams to score: Real Betis v Feyenoord Rotterdam is the strongest at 82.3%

Yesterday in one line

61 of 117 picks landed (52.1%), against a running 55.6% over 1071 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review

Every game today, 29 predictions

• 12:10 UTC Stan Wawrinka v Martin Landaluce (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): S. Wawrinka 51.3%
• 13:00 UTC Nigeria v Zambia (ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C): NGA 69.2%
• 13:00 UTC Ekaterina Alexandrova v Marta Kostyuk (WTA BNB Ningbo Open): M. Kostyuk 66%
• 13:40 UTC Clement Chidekh v Jacob Fearnley (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): J. Fearnley 53.3%
• 14:30 UTC Stefanos Tsitsipas v Mikhail Kukushkin (ATP Almaty Open): S. Tsitsipas 86.5%
• 16:00 UTC David Goffin v Remy Bertola (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): D. Goffin 50%
• 16:45 UTC Como v Manchester United (Champions League): Como 38.7%, likely 2-1
• 16:45 UTC Lille v Galatasaray (Champions League): Lille 43.7%, likely 2-1
• 17:00 UTC Moise Kouame v Lorenzo Musetti (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): L. Musetti 82.2%
• 17:30 UTC Gauthier Onclin v Jan-Lennard Struff (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): J. Struff 73.8%
• 18:00 UTC Levante v Athletic Club (La Liga): Athletic 49.2%, likely 0-1
• 18:30 UTC Benjamin Bonzi v Tommy Paul (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): T. Paul 66.6%
• 19:00 UTC Aston Villa v Viking FK (Champions League): Aston Villa 87.5%, likely 3-0
• 19:00 UTC Bayern Munich v Arsenal (Champions League): Bayern 45.6%
• 19:00 UTC Club Brugge v Lens (Champions League): Club Brugge 52.4%, likely 2-1
• 19:00 UTC Internazionale v Shakhtar Donetsk (Champions League): Inter Milan 90.8%
• 19:00 UTC Real Betis v Feyenoord Rotterdam (Champions League): Betis 62.2%, likely 3-1
• 19:00 UTC Real Madrid v RB Leipzig (Champions League): Real Madrid 86%, likely 2-0
• 19:00 UTC Sporting CP v LASK Linz (Champions League): Sporting 81.1%, likely 3-0
• 19:00 UTC Reading v Leyton Orient (League One): Reading 77.1%, likely 2-1
• 23:00 UTC FC Cincinnati v D.C. United (MLS): Cincinnati 52.2%, likely 2-1
• 23:00 UTC Orlando Magic v Atlanta Hawks (NBA): Magic 57.2%
• 23:00 UTC Washington Wizards v Milwaukee Bucks (NBA): Wizards 53.1%
• 23:15 UTC Llaneros FC v Deportivo Cali (Primera A): Cali 45.6%, likely 0-1
• 23:30 UTC Miami Heat v Minnesota Timberwolves (NBA): Heat 56.1%
• 23:30 UTC Brooklyn Nets v Charlotte Hornets (NBA): Nets 51%
• 23:30 UTC Toronto Raptors v Chicago Bulls (NBA): Raptors 61.1%
• 23:30 UTC Buffalo Sabres v Philadelphia Flyers (NHL): Sabres 73.2%
• 23:30 UTC Ottawa Senators v Florida Panthers (NHL): Senators 51.9%

How to read these numbers

Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.