Atlético-MG v Cruzeiro headlines 29 October: 48 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

48 games across 19 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

Thursday, 29 October 2026 brings 48 games across Women's Big Bash League, ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2, Pakistan ODI Tri-Series, WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis and 15 more. 1 of them is a playoff game, 4 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Atlético-MG against Cruzeiro in the Brasileirao. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.

The big one: Atlético-MG v Cruzeiro

Atlético-MG33.9%vCruzeiro38%Cruzeiro to win · 38%

Why it matters: Atlético-MG sit 7th (50 pts), Cruzeiro 3rd (54 pts).

Cruzeiro are a marginal favourite at 38% (draw 28.1%, Atlético-MG 33.9%). Expected goals come out at 1.6 for Atlético-MG and 1.4 for Cruzeiro, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (56.1%), and both teams to score is likely at 60.2%. Form: Atlético-MG LWWDW, Cruzeiro WWLWW (most recent first).

The two sides have met 3 times recently: Atlético-MG won 1, Cruzeiro won 0 and 2 were draws, averaging 2 goals a game with both teams scoring in 66.7% of them.

Playoff games, table clashes and streaks

• Vasco da Gama v Flamengo (Brasileirao, 23:00 UTC): Vasco sit 13th (38 pts), Flamengo 1st (70 pts); Flamengo have won 3 in a row. Model: Flamengo 53.6%.
• Fiorentina v Atalanta (Serie A, 19:45 UTC): Fiorentina sit 19th (4 pts), Atalanta 12th (10 pts); Fiorentina have lost 3 in a row. Model: Fiorentina 43.6%.
• Tampa Bay Lightning v Winnipeg Jets (NHL, 23:00 UTC): Lightning sit 7th (7-3), Jets 28th (4-5); Jets have lost 6 in a row. Model: Lightning 64.9%.
• Atlanta Dream v Golden State Valkyries (WNBA, 16:30 UTC): WNBA Finals - Game 6: GS leads series 3-2. Model: Dream 56.7%.
• Hammarby IF v IK Sirius (Allsvenskan, 17:30 UTC): a top-of-the-table meeting, 2nd against 1st (49 pts v 55 pts). Model: Hammarby 72.3%.
• Al Nassr v Al Kholood (Saudi Pro League, 18:00 UTC): Al Nassr sit 2nd (25 pts), Al Kholood 9th (12 pts); Al Nassr have won 3 in a row; Al Kholood have lost 4 in a row. Model: Al Nassr 80.9%.

Where the model and the bookmakers disagree

A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 2 games clear that bar today.

A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.

Upset watch

• Fiorentina (43.6%) over Atalanta, with Fiorentina on a 3-game losing run. Draw 24.2%, Atalanta 32.2%.
• Kalmar FF (44.3%) over GAIS. Draw 23.3%, GAIS 32.4%.
• Mjällby AIF (47%) over Örgryte IS. Draw 28.8%, Örgryte 24.3%.
• Al Khaleej (47.6%) over Al Hazem. Draw 25.4%, Al Hazem 27.1%.
• Atlanta Dream (56.7%) over Golden State Valkyries, who have won 2 straight, with Dream on a 2-game losing run. Valkyries 43.3%.

Goals markets

• Over 2.5 lean: Al Nassr v Al Kholood, 72.9% (expected goals 3.2 and 0.6)
• Over 2.5 lean: Frosinone v Lecce, 72.2% (expected goals 2.7 and 1.1)
• Over 2.5 lean: Al Riyadh v Al Qadsiah, 67.6% (expected goals 0.9 and 2.6)
• Under 2.5 lean: Kalmar FF v GAIS, 65.9%
• Under 2.5 lean: Al Khaleej v Al Hazem, 52%
• Both teams to score: Örgryte IS v Mjällby AIF is the strongest at 63.3%

Yesterday in one line

48 of 100 picks landed (48%), against a running 55.8% over 1877 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review

Every game today, 48 predictions

• 04:40 UTC Melbourne Renegades Women v Sydney Thunder Women (Women's Big Bash League): MR-W 55%
• 05:30 UTC United Arab Emirates v Oman (ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2): UAE 53.1%
• 08:00 UTC England v Sri Lanka (Pakistan ODI Tri-Series): ENG 52.4%
• 08:00 UTC Elena Rybakina v Yulia Putintseva (WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis): E. Rybakina 84.5%
• 08:10 UTC Melbourne Stars Women v Hobart Hurricanes Women (Women's Big Bash League): HH-W 50.9%
• 08:30 UTC Anna Bondar v Kaitlin Quevedo (WTA Guangzhou Open): K. Quevedo 52.4%
• 11:00 UTC Lilli Tagger v Magda Linette (WTA Guangzhou Open): L. Tagger 58.8%
• 11:00 UTC Valentin Vacherot v Rafael Jodar (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): R. Jodar 68.9%
• 12:30 UTC Tommy Paul v Luciano Darderi (ATP Erste Bank Open): T. Paul 70.3%
• 12:30 UTC Cameron Norrie v Daniil Medvedev (ATP Erste Bank Open): D. Medvedev 75%
• 13:00 UTC Alex Michelsen v Arthur Fils (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): A. Fils 63.2%
• 13:00 UTC Marina Bassols Ribera v Erika Andreeva (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): M. Bassols Ribera 53.6%
• 14:00 UTC Susan Bandecchi v Elsa Jacquemot (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): S. Bandecchi 54.9%
• 14:00 UTC Nikoloz Basilashvili v Carlos Alcaraz (ATP Erste Bank Open): C. Alcaraz 88%
• 14:30 UTC Lucrezia Stefanini v Ayla Aksu (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): L. Stefanini 57.1%
• 14:30 UTC Taylor Fritz v Denis Shapovalov (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): T. Fritz 65.6%
• 14:35 UTC Al Khaleej v Al Hazem (Saudi Pro League): Al Khaleej 47.6%, likely 1-0
• 15:00 UTC Julia Riera v Yasmine Kabbaj (WTA Curitiba Open): Y. Kabbaj 50.2%
• 15:00 UTC Daniel Altmaier v Jiri Lehecka (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): J. Lehecka 71.5%
• 16:00 UTC Anna Blinkova v Katarina Zavatska (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): A. Blinkova 72.1%
• 16:00 UTC Arthur Fery v Lorenzo Musetti (ATP Erste Bank Open): L. Musetti 70.1%
• 16:30 UTC Atlanta Dream v Golden State Valkyries (WNBA): Dream 56.7%
• 16:30 UTC Alexander Zverev v Tallon Griekspoor (ATP Erste Bank Open): A. Zverev 79.2%
• 17:00 UTC Novak Djokovic v Jan-Lennard Struff (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): N. Djokovic 76.9%
• 17:30 UTC Frosinone v Lecce (Serie A): Frosinone 51%, likely 2-1
• 17:30 UTC Hammarby IF v IK Sirius (Allsvenskan): Hammarby 72.3%, likely 2-0
• 17:30 UTC Martyna Kubka v Lisa Pigato (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): L. Pigato 50.6%
• 18:00 UTC Kalmar FF v GAIS (Allsvenskan): Kalmar FF 44.3%
• 18:00 UTC Örgryte IS v Mjällby AIF (Allsvenskan): Mjällby 47%, likely 1-2
• 18:00 UTC Al Nassr v Al Kholood (Saudi Pro League): Al Nassr 80.9%, likely 3-0
• 18:00 UTC Al Riyadh v Al Qadsiah (Saudi Pro League): Al Qadsiah 79.7%, likely 0-2
• 18:00 UTC Maria Lourdes Carle v Julia Grabher (WTA Curitiba Open): J. Grabher 68.3%
• 18:30 UTC Ben Shelton v Jerome Kym (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): B. Shelton 79.3%
• 19:00 UTC Flavio Cobolli v Matteo Berrettini (ATP Erste Bank Open): F. Cobolli 59.6%
• 19:45 UTC Fiorentina v Atalanta (Serie A): Fiorentina 43.6%, likely 2-1
• 20:00 UTC Polona Hercog v Valeriya Strakhova (WTA Queretaro Open): P. Hercog 70.4%
• 20:00 UTC Nadia Podoroska v Miriam Bulgaru (WTA Queretaro Open): N. Podoroska 74.3%
• 22:30 UTC Atlético-MG v Cruzeiro (Brasileirao): Cruzeiro 38%, likely 1-2
• 23:00 UTC Vasco da Gama v Flamengo (Brasileirao): Flamengo 53.6%, likely 0-2
• 23:00 UTC Tampa Bay Lightning v Winnipeg Jets (NHL): Lightning 64.9%
• 23:00 UTC Pittsburgh Penguins v Utah Mammoth (NHL): Penguins 50.1%
• 23:00 UTC Carolina Hurricanes v Columbus Blue Jackets (NHL): Hurricanes 68.4%
• 23:00 UTC Tatjana Maria v Martina Colmegna (WTA Queretaro Open): T. Maria 74.1%
• 23:30 UTC América de Cali v Fortaleza CEIF (Primera A): América Cali 79.5%, likely 2-0
• 23:30 UTC North Texas Mean Green v Florida Atlantic Owls (NCAA Football): North Texas 63.6%
• 23:30 UTC James Madison Dukes v Troy Trojans (NCAA Football): Troy 78.4%
• 23:30 UTC Detroit Red Wings v Chicago Blackhawks (NHL): Red Wings 67.5%
• 23:30 UTC Tasmania v New South Wales (Sheffield Shield): draw 40.5%

How to read these numbers

Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.