Atlético v Bayern headlines 3 November: 71 predictions, the stakes and where the value is
71 games across 13 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.
Tuesday, 3 November 2026 brings 71 games across WTA Chennai Open, WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, ATP Rolex Paris Masters, WTA Angola Ladies Open and 9 more. 7 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Atlético Madrid against Bayern Munich in the Champions League. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.
The big one: Atlético Madrid v Bayern Munich
Atlético Madrid26.5%v
Bayern Munich45.8%Bayern to win · 45.8%Why it matters: Atlético sit 16th (4 pts), Bayern 14th (5 pts).
Bayern Munich are a marginal favourite at 45.8% (draw 27.7%, Atlético Madrid 26.5%). Expected goals come out at 1.7 for Atlético Madrid and 1.9 for Bayern Munich, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (68.8%), and both teams to score is likely at 70%. Form: Atlético Madrid WWDWW, Bayern Munich DWDWD (most recent first).
Team news: Kane says new Bayern deal 'extremely close,' will happen in coming days. Ballon d'Or winner Harry Kane is determined to help Bayern Munich come through more difficult moments as they prepare to face Atlético Madrid in the Champions League.
Playoff games, table clashes and streaks
- Manchester United v AS Roma (Champions League, 20:00 UTC): Man Utd sit 21st (3 pts), AS Roma 15th (4 pts); Man Utd have lost 3 in a row. Model: Man Utd 48.9%.
- Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain (Champions League, 20:00 UTC): Villarreal sit 19th (3 pts), PSG 1st (9 pts); PSG have won 9 in a row. Model: PSG 60.6%.
- Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart (Champions League, 17:45 UTC): Galatasaray sit 23rd (3 pts), Stuttgart 6th (7 pts); Galatasaray have won 4 in a row. Model: Galatasaray 52.9%.
- LASK Linz v Slovan Bratislava (Champions League, 20:00 UTC): LASK Linz sit 24th (3 pts), S Bratislava 36th (0 pts); S Bratislava have lost 6 in a row. Model: LASK Linz 76.8%.
- Huddersfield Town v Luton Town (League One, 19:45 UTC): a top-of-the-table meeting, 1st against 4th (28 pts v 23 pts); Huddersfield have won 4 in a row; Luton have won 4 in a row. Model: Huddersfield 47.3%.
- Charlton Athletic v Bolton Wanderers (Championship, 19:45 UTC): Charlton sit 20th (14 pts), Bolton 19th (14 pts); Charlton have lost 3 in a row. Model: Charlton 44.9%.
Where the model and the bookmakers disagree
A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 6 games clear that bar today.
| Match | Pick | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona v Aston Villa | Barcelona | 87.5% | 77.3% | +10.2 |
| Deportivo Pasto v Jaguares de Córdoba | Pasto | 75.6% | 65.5% | +10.1 |
| Deportivo Pereira v Deportes Tolima | Tolima | 69.9% | 62.3% | +7.6 |
| Chapecoense v Mirassol | Mirassol | 55.1% | 48.8% | +6.3 |
| Wigan Athletic v Mansfield Town | Mansfield | 52.2% | 46.5% | +5.7 |
| Preston North End v Sheffield United | Sheffield Utd | 55.5% | 50% | +5.5 |
A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.
Upset watch
- Manchester United (48.9%) over AS Roma, who have won 2 straight, with Man Utd on a 3-game losing run. Draw 22.8%, AS Roma 28.2%.
- West Bromwich Albion (40.9%) over Southampton, who have won 2 straight. Draw 24.5%, Southampton 34.6%.
- Huddersfield Town (47.3%) over Luton Town, who have won 4 straight. Draw 26.7%, Luton 26%.
- Charlton Athletic (44.9%) over Bolton Wanderers, with Charlton on a 3-game losing run. Draw 25.4%, Bolton 29.7%.
- Bayern Munich (45.8%) over Atlético Madrid, who have won 2 straight. Draw 27.7%, Atlético 26.5%.
Goals markets
- Over 2.5 lean: Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain, 88% (expected goals 1.9 and 3.2)
- Over 2.5 lean: Barcelona v Aston Villa, 87% (expected goals 1.7 and 3.2)
- Over 2.5 lean: Bodo/Glimt v Lille, 84.1% (expected goals 3.1 and 1.5)
- Under 2.5 lean: Northampton Town v Oldham Athletic, 80.9%
- Under 2.5 lean: Deportivo Pereira v Deportes Tolima, 70.5%
- Both teams to score: Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain is the strongest at 81.5%
Yesterday in one line
48 of 77 picks landed (62.3%), against a running 57.1% over 2443 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review
Every game today, 71 predictions
- 05:35 UTC Jil Teichmann v Joanna Garland (WTA Chennai Open): J. Teichmann 55.1%
- 05:35 UTC Oksana Selekhmeteva v Teodora Kostovic (WTA Chennai Open): T. Kostovic 55.6%
- 05:40 UTC Panna Udvardy v Robin Montgomery (WTA Chennai Open): R. Montgomery 56%
- 06:20 UTC Dayana Yastremska v Zeynep Sonmez (WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open): Z. Sonmez 52.5%
- 06:20 UTC Talia Gibson v Oleksandra Oliynykova (WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open): T. Gibson 60.3%
- 07:00 UTC Harriet Dart v Polina Kudermetova (WTA Chennai Open): P. Kudermetova 76.2%
- 07:00 UTC Anastasia Zakharova v Polina Iatcenko (WTA Chennai Open): A. Zakharova 52.4%
- 07:00 UTC Jeline Vandromme v Kyoka Okamura (WTA Chennai Open): K. Okamura 56%
- 07:00 UTC Linda Fruhvirtova v Weronika Falkowska (WTA Chennai Open): W. Falkowska 55.9%
- 07:30 UTC Sorana Cirstea v Maria Timofeeva (WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open): S. Cirstea 60.8%
- 07:30 UTC Maddison Inglis v Maya Joint (WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open): M. Joint 62.3%
- 08:30 UTC Moyuka Uchijima v Rebecca Sramkova (WTA Chennai Open): R. Sramkova 59.6%
- 08:30 UTC Elsa Jacquemot v Lilli Tagger (WTA Chennai Open): L. Stefanini 64%
- 09:00 UTC Xinran Sun v Tereza Valentova (WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open): T. Valentova 65.2%
- 09:00 UTC Himeno Sakatsume v Liudmila Samsonova (WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open): L. Samsonova 56.3%
- 10:00 UTC Arthur Rinderknech v Francisco Cerundolo (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): F. Cerundolo 61.4%
- 10:00 UTC Andrey Rublev v Tomas Martin Etcheverry (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): A. Rublev 64.5%
- 10:00 UTC Quentin Halys v Arthur Fery (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): A. Fery 52.5%
- 10:00 UTC Aliona Falei v Magda Linette (WTA Chennai Open): M. Linette 55.5%
- 10:30 UTC Alycia Parks v Alexandra Eala (WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open): A. Eala 75.4%
- 10:30 UTC Mananchaya Sawangkaew v Mai Hontama (WTA Chennai Open): M. Sawangkaew 63.3%
- 10:30 UTC Sahaja Yamalapalli v Simona Waltert (WTA Chennai Open): S. Waltert 68.5%
- 10:30 UTC Gina Feistel v Linda Klimovicova (WTA Angola Ladies Open): L. Klimovicova 56.5%
- 10:30 UTC Mei Yamaguchi v Zhibek Kulambayeva (WTA Chennai Open): Z. Kulambayeva 55.9%
- 11:30 UTC Brandon Nakashima v Matteo Berrettini (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): B. Nakashima 59.9%
- 11:30 UTC Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Moise Kouame (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): A. Davidovich Fokina 88.4%
- 11:30 UTC Stefanos Tsitsipas v Learner Tien (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): S. Tsitsipas 51%
- 12:00 UTC Kaitlin Quevedo v Paula Badosa (WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open): P. Badosa 70.8%
- 13:00 UTC Tommy Paul v Holger Rune (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): T. Paul 63.7%
- 13:00 UTC Novak Djokovic v Valentin Vacherot (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): N. Djokovic 61.4%
- 13:30 UTC Li Zongyu v Ana Sofia Sanchez (WTA Angola Ladies Open): Z. Li 62.6%
- 14:00 UTC Alex Michelsen v Jiri Lehecka (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): J. Lehecka 57.1%
- 14:30 UTC Benjamin Bonzi v Taylor Fritz (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): T. Fritz 65.8%
- 16:00 UTC Dolphins v Western Province (South Africa Domestic T20/Pro20): WPR 50.2%
- 16:00 UTC Jan-Lennard Struff v Arthur Gea (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): A. Gea 59.8%
- 16:00 UTC Elvina Kalieva v Irene Burillo (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): E. Kalieva 65.9%
- 16:00 UTC Jazmin Ortenzi v Caroline Dolehide (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): J. Ortenzi 60.5%
- 16:00 UTC Nadia Podoroska v Renata Zarazua (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): R. Zarazua 72.9%
- 17:30 UTC Rebeka Masarova v Alice Tubello (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): A. Tubello 57.5%
- 17:30 UTC Maria Lourdes Carle v Despina Papamichail (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): M. Carle 55.7%
- 17:45 UTC Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart (Champions League): Galatasaray 52.9%
- 17:45 UTC Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP (Champions League): Sporting 55.4%, likely 0-1
- 18:00 UTC IK Sirius v Halmstads BK (Allsvenskan): Sirius 78.5%, likely 2-0
- 18:00 UTC Ben Shelton v Cameron Norrie (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): B. Shelton 71.5%
- 19:00 UTC Sofia Costoulas v Marina Bassols Ribera (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): M. Bassols Ribera 68.4%
- 19:00 UTC Tamara Zidansek v Bianca Andreescu (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): B. Andreescu 68.6%
- 19:00 UTC Julia Grabher v Laura Pigossi (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): J. Grabher 81.4%
- 19:30 UTC Casper Ruud v Rafael Jodar (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): R. Jodar 62.5%
- 19:45 UTC Blackburn Rovers v Stoke City (Championship): Stoke 36.7%, likely 0-1
- 19:45 UTC Charlton Athletic v Bolton Wanderers (Championship): Charlton 44.9%, likely 2-1
- 19:45 UTC Derby County v Norwich City (Championship): Norwich City 53.6%, likely 1-2
- 19:45 UTC Portsmouth v Swansea City (Championship): Swansea 43.1%, likely 0-1
- 19:45 UTC Preston North End v Sheffield United (Championship): Sheffield Utd 55.5%, likely 0-1
- 19:45 UTC Queens Park Rangers v Burnley (Championship): QPR 49.6%, likely 2-1
- 19:45 UTC Watford v Lincoln City (Championship): Watford 38.7%, likely 2-1
- 19:45 UTC Huddersfield Town v Luton Town (League One): Huddersfield 47.3%, likely 2-1
- 19:45 UTC Wigan Athletic v Mansfield Town (League One): Mansfield 52.2%, likely 0-1
- 19:45 UTC Northampton Town v Oldham Athletic (League Two): Northampton 42.2%, likely 1-0
- 20:00 UTC Birmingham City v Millwall (Championship): Birmingham 49.5%, likely 2-1
- 20:00 UTC West Bromwich Albion v Southampton (Championship): West Brom 40.9%
- 20:00 UTC Atlético Madrid v Bayern Munich (Champions League): Bayern 45.8%, likely 1-2
- 20:00 UTC Barcelona v Aston Villa (Champions League): Barcelona 87.5%
- 20:00 UTC Bodo/Glimt v Lille (Champions League): Bodo/Glimt 56.3%, likely 3-1
- 20:00 UTC Feyenoord Rotterdam v Internazionale (Champions League): Inter Milan 55.1%, likely 1-2
- 20:00 UTC LASK Linz v Slovan Bratislava (Champions League): LASK Linz 76.8%, likely 3-0
- 20:00 UTC Manchester United v AS Roma (Champions League): Man Utd 48.9%
- 20:00 UTC Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain (Champions League): PSG 60.6%, likely 1-3
- 20:30 UTC Deportivo Pereira v Deportes Tolima (Primera A): Tolima 69.9%, likely 0-1
- 22:00 UTC Valentina Mediorreal Arias v Julia Riera (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): J. Riera 80.9%
- 22:30 UTC Chapecoense v Mirassol (Brasileirao): Mirassol 55.1%, likely 0-1
- 23:20 UTC Deportivo Pasto v Jaguares de Córdoba (Primera A): Pasto 75.6%, likely 1-0
How to read these numbers
Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.