Brasileirao predictions: every match from 16 October to 5 November 2026

13 Brasileirao fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 2 clear favourites, 11 games the model calls close.

13 Brasileirao matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Thursday, 5 November 2026. The model makes 2 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Athletico-PR against Palmeiras, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Athletico-PR28.6%vPalmeiras44.7%Palmeiras to win · 44.7%

Palmeiras are a marginal favourite at 44.7% (draw 26.7%, Athletico-PR 28.6%). Expected goals come out at 1.1 for Athletico-PR and 1.5 for Palmeiras, with 0-1 the most likely exact score. The total sits close to the 2.5 line, and both teams to score is a coin flip at 53.9%. Bookmakers price Palmeiras at about 40.6%, so the model is 4.1 points more confident than the market. Form: Athletico-PR LDLWD, Palmeiras DWWWW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Depay misses late penalty, Estudiantes advance to Libertadores semis after 17 years".

Every fixture

Mirassol v Internacional, Friday, 16 October 2026 23:00 UTC

Mirassol to win at 40.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.8%. Form: Mirassol WLDWL, Internacional WLWLD. Full preview

Botafogo v Chapecoense, Saturday, 17 October 2026 21:00 UTC

Botafogo to win at 71.2%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 61.3%. Form: Botafogo LLWDL, Chapecoense LLWLL. Full preview

Atlético-MG v Coritiba, Saturday, 17 October 2026 21:30 UTC

Atlético-MG to win at 61.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 60.3%. Form: Atlético-MG LLWWD, Coritiba LWLLD. Full preview

Athletico-PR v Palmeiras, Saturday, 17 October 2026 22:30 UTC

Palmeiras to win at 44.7%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 49%. Form: Athletico-PR LDLWD, Palmeiras DWWWW. Full preview

São Paulo v Vasco da Gama, Sunday, 18 October 2026 00:00 UTC

São Paulo to win at 44.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 40.4%. Form: São Paulo LDWWL, Vasco LWLDW. Full preview

Fluminense v Santos, Sunday, 18 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Fluminense to win at 40.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 60.2%. Form: Fluminense WLLLW, Santos LDDWL. Full preview

Grêmio v Cruzeiro, Sunday, 18 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Cruzeiro to win at 43.5%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 50.5%. Form: Grêmio WWLDD, Cruzeiro WWWLW. Full preview

Bahia v Flamengo, Sunday, 18 October 2026 21:30 UTC

Flamengo to win at 49.8%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 45.2%. Form: Bahia WDLWL, Flamengo WWWWD. Full preview

Remo v Red Bull Bragantino, Sunday, 18 October 2026 22:30 UTC

Red Bull Bragantino to win at 47.9%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 44.8%. Form: Remo WLDDD, Bragantino WWLDW. Full preview

Athletico-PR v Vasco da Gama, Wednesday, 4 November 2026 22:30 UTC

Athletico-PR to win at 39.2%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 63.8%. Form: Athletico-PR LDLWD, Vasco LWLDW. Full preview

Flamengo v Grêmio, Wednesday, 4 November 2026 22:30 UTC

Flamengo to win at 79.2%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 59.7%. Form: Flamengo WWWWD, Grêmio WWLDD. Full preview

Botafogo v Atlético-MG, Thursday, 5 November 2026 00:30 UTC

Botafogo to win at 49.7%, Over 2.5 at 45.3%. Form: Botafogo LLWDL, Atlético-MG LLWWD. Full preview

São Paulo v Corinthians, Thursday, 5 November 2026 00:30 UTC

São Paulo to win at 38.6%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.9%. Form: São Paulo LDWWL, Corinthians WLDLL. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Brasileirao probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.