La Liga predictions: every match from 16 October to 26 October 2026

14 La Liga fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 2 clear favourites, 12 games the model calls close.

14 La Liga matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Monday, 26 October 2026. The model makes 2 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Barcelona against Real Madrid, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Barcelona52.3%vReal Madrid21.9%Barcelona to win · 52.3%

Barcelona are a narrow favourite at 52.3% (draw 25.8%, Real Madrid 21.9%). Expected goals come out at 2.5 for Barcelona and 1.4 for Real Madrid, with 2-1 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (74.6%), and both teams to score is likely at 69.4%. Bookmakers price Barcelona at about 58.6%, so the model is 6.3 points below the market. On Elo ratings Barcelona are the clearly stronger side (160 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Barcelona LWWWW, Real Madrid WWWWL (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Anthony Gordon delivers rating out of 10 for his start at Barcelona".

Every fixture

Deportivo v Levante, Friday, 16 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Deportivo to win at 46.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 66.7%. Form: Deportivo LDLDL, Levante WDDLL. Full preview

Espanyol v Atlético Madrid, Saturday, 17 October 2026 12:00 UTC

Atlético Madrid to win at 60.1%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 52.5%. Form: Espanyol LLDLL, Atlético WDWWW. Full preview

Villarreal v Elche, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:15 UTC

Villarreal to win at 64.1%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 70.3%. Form: Villarreal WLDWL, Elche WDDWL. Full preview

Real Betis v Barcelona, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:00 UTC

Barcelona to win at 68.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.7%. Form: Betis WLWWD, Barcelona LWWWW. Full preview

Valencia v Athletic Club, Saturday, 17 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Athletic Club to win at 48.2%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 37.4%. Form: Valencia LDDLW, Athletic LDDDD. Full preview

Osasuna v Racing Santander, Sunday, 18 October 2026 12:00 UTC

Osasuna to win at 45.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 81.9%. Form: Osasuna WLDLL, Racing WLDLL. Full preview

Celta Vigo v Alavés, Sunday, 18 October 2026 14:15 UTC

Celta Vigo to win at 41.8%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 37.3%. Form: Celta Vigo WWLDW, Alavés DLLDL. Full preview

Málaga v Real Sociedad, Sunday, 18 October 2026 16:30 UTC

Real Sociedad to win at 48.1%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 40.7%. Form: Málaga DLDLL, Real Sociedad WWDWW. Full preview

Real Madrid v Sevilla, Sunday, 18 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Real Madrid to win at 74.8%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 65.3%. Form: Real Madrid WWWWL, Sevilla LDLWW. Full preview

Athletic Club v Getafe, Sunday, 25 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Athletic Club to win at 64.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 17.2%. Form: Athletic LDDDD, Getafe LDDLW. Full preview

Celta Vigo v Real Betis, Sunday, 25 October 2026 15:15 UTC

Real Betis to win at 44.1%, Over 2.5 at 49.4%. Form: Celta Vigo WWLDW, Betis WLWWD. Full preview

Real Sociedad v Levante, Sunday, 25 October 2026 17:30 UTC

Real Sociedad to win at 58%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 78.5%. Form: Real Sociedad WWDWW, Levante WDDLL. Full preview

Barcelona v Real Madrid, Sunday, 25 October 2026 20:00 UTC

Barcelona to win at 52.3%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 74.6%. Form: Barcelona LWWWW, Real Madrid WWWWL. Full preview

Sevilla v Osasuna, Monday, 26 October 2026 20:00 UTC

Sevilla to win at 48.5%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 58.8%. Form: Sevilla LDLWW, Osasuna WLDLL. Full preview

A note on the numbers

La Liga probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.