La Liga predictions: every match from 16 October to 2 November 2026

19 La Liga fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 6 clear favourites, 13 games the model calls close.

19 La Liga matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Monday, 2 November 2026. The model makes 6 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Barcelona against Alavés, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Barcelona85.5%vAlavés3.2%Barcelona to win · 85.5%

Barcelona are a strong favourite at 85.5% (draw 11.3%, Alavés 3.2%). Expected goals come out at 3.2 for Barcelona and 0.9 for Alavés, with 3-0 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (76.9%), and both teams to score is likely at 55.7%. On Elo ratings Barcelona are the clearly stronger side (395 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Barcelona LLWWW, Alavés DLLDL (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Fan who struck Real Madrid's Eduardo Camavinga in Clásico identified by police".

Every fixture

Deportivo v Levante, Friday, 16 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Deportivo to win at 46.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 66.7%. Form: Deportivo LDLDL, Levante LWDDL. Full preview

Espanyol v Atlético Madrid, Saturday, 17 October 2026 12:00 UTC

Atlético Madrid to win at 60.1%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 52.5%. Form: Espanyol LLDLL, Atlético WDWWW. Full preview

Villarreal v Elche, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:15 UTC

Villarreal to win at 64.1%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 70.3%. Form: Villarreal WLDWL, Elche WDDWL. Full preview

Real Betis v Barcelona, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:00 UTC

Barcelona to win at 68.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.7%. Form: Betis DWLWW, Barcelona LLWWW. Full preview

Valencia v Athletic Club, Saturday, 17 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Athletic Club to win at 48.2%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 37.4%. Form: Valencia LDDLW, Athletic WLDDD. Full preview

Osasuna v Racing Santander, Sunday, 18 October 2026 12:00 UTC

Osasuna to win at 45.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 81.9%. Form: Osasuna LWLDL, Racing WLDLL. Full preview

Celta Vigo v Alavés, Sunday, 18 October 2026 14:15 UTC

Celta Vigo to win at 41.8%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 37.3%. Form: Celta Vigo DWWLD, Alavés DLLDL. Full preview

Málaga v Real Sociedad, Sunday, 18 October 2026 16:30 UTC

Real Sociedad to win at 48.1%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 40.7%. Form: Málaga DLDLL, Real Sociedad WWWDW. Full preview

Real Madrid v Sevilla, Sunday, 18 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Real Madrid to win at 74.8%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 65.3%. Form: Real Madrid WWWWW, Sevilla WLDLW. Full preview

Villarreal v Espanyol, Friday, 30 October 2026 20:00 UTC

Villarreal to win at 66%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 53.4%. Form: Villarreal WLDWL, Espanyol LLDLL. Full preview

Levante v Atlético Madrid, Saturday, 31 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Atlético Madrid to win at 64.5%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 60.8%. Form: Levante LWDDL, Atlético WDWWW. Full preview

Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:15 UTC

Rayo Vallecano to win at 38.5%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 34.7%. Form: Rayo LDDDW, Celta Vigo DWWLD. Full preview

Real Betis v Málaga, Saturday, 31 October 2026 17:30 UTC

Real Betis to win at 68.7%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 59.9%. Form: Betis DWLWW, Málaga DLDLL. Full preview

Barcelona v Alavés, Saturday, 31 October 2026 20:00 UTC

Barcelona to win at 85.5%, most likely score 3-0, Over 2.5 at 76.9%. Form: Barcelona LLWWW, Alavés DLLDL. Full preview

Getafe v Sevilla, Sunday, 1 November 2026 13:00 UTC

Sevilla to win at 44.7%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 30.3%. Form: Getafe LLDDL, Sevilla WLDLW. Full preview

Racing Santander v Real Madrid, Sunday, 1 November 2026 15:15 UTC

Real Madrid to win at 78.2%, most likely score 1-3, Over 2.5 at 80.6%. Form: Racing WLDLL, Real Madrid WWWWW. Full preview

Elche v Valencia, Sunday, 1 November 2026 17:30 UTC

Elche to win at 35.8%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 48.9%. Form: Elche WDDWL, Valencia LDDLW. Full preview

Athletic Club v Real Sociedad, Sunday, 1 November 2026 20:00 UTC

Athletic Club to win at 41.5%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 58.8%. Form: Athletic WLDDD, Real Sociedad WWWDW. Full preview

Deportivo v Osasuna, Monday, 2 November 2026 20:00 UTC

Deportivo to win at 45.7%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 48.8%. Form: Deportivo LDLDL, Osasuna LWLDL. Full preview

A note on the numbers

La Liga probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.