Serie A predictions: every match from 16 October to 28 October 2026

21 Serie A fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 6 clear favourites, 15 games the model calls close.

21 Serie A matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Wednesday, 28 October 2026. The model makes 6 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Internazionale against Fiorentina, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Internazionale63.5%vFiorentina11.9%Inter Milan to win · 63.5%

Internazionale are a solid favourite at 63.5% (draw 24.6%, Fiorentina 11.9%). Expected goals come out at 3.2 for Internazionale and 0.8 for Fiorentina, with 3-0 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (76.3%), and both teams to score is a coin flip at 54.2%. Bookmakers price Internazionale at about 70.1%, so the model is 6.6 points below the market. On Elo ratings Internazionale are the clearly stronger side (365 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Internazionale WWLWD, Fiorentina LLDWL (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Transfer rumors, news: USMNT defender Richards to move to Inter?".

Every fixture

Frosinone v Sassuolo, Friday, 16 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Sassuolo to win at 36.7%, Over 2.5 at 57.4%. Form: Frosinone WLWDW, Sassuolo LLDLW. Full preview

Venezia v Napoli, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Napoli to win at 61.1%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 67.9%. Form: Venezia WLLLL, Napoli DWLLW. Full preview

Bologna v Internazionale, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:00 UTC

Internazionale to win at 63.6%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 63.4%. Form: Bologna WLWDL, Inter Milan WWLWD. Full preview

AS Roma v Genoa, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:45 UTC

AS Roma to win at 57.7%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 56%. Form: AS Roma DWWLD, Genoa LWLDL. Full preview

Udinese v Lecce, Sunday, 18 October 2026 10:30 UTC

Udinese to win at 47.7%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 50.3%. Form: Udinese LLLLL, Lecce WLLWL. Full preview

Fiorentina v Como, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Como to win at 49.5%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 49.3%. Form: Fiorentina LLDWL, Como WWWLD. Full preview

AC Milan v Atalanta, Sunday, 18 October 2026 16:00 UTC

AC Milan to win at 50.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 41.8%. Form: Milan LWWDW, Atalanta LLWWL. Full preview

Juventus v Lazio, Sunday, 18 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Juventus to win at 57.5%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 37%. Form: Juventus DLWDW, Lazio WWWWD. Full preview

Internazionale v Fiorentina, Sunday, 25 October 2026 11:30 UTC

Internazionale to win at 63.5%, most likely score 3-0, Over 2.5 at 76.3%. Form: Inter Milan WWLWD, Fiorentina LLDWL. Full preview

Atalanta v Frosinone, Sunday, 25 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Atalanta to win at 51.1%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 61.5%. Form: Atalanta LLWWL, Frosinone WLWDW. Full preview

Genoa v Venezia, Sunday, 25 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Genoa to win at 40.7%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 45.4%. Form: Genoa LWLDL, Venezia WLLLL. Full preview

Lecce v Juventus, Sunday, 25 October 2026 17:00 UTC

Juventus to win at 69.6%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 39.5%. Form: Lecce WLLWL, Juventus DLWDW. Full preview

Udinese v AC Milan, Sunday, 25 October 2026 19:45 UTC

AC Milan to win at 61.4%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 53.4%. Form: Udinese LLLLL, Milan LWWDW. Full preview

Sassuolo v Lazio, Tuesday, 27 October 2026 17:30 UTC

Lazio to win at 52.6%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 52.1%. Form: Sassuolo LLDLW, Lazio WWWWD. Full preview

AS Roma v Cagliari, Tuesday, 27 October 2026 19:45 UTC

AS Roma to win at 81.3%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 51.1%. Form: AS Roma DWWLD, Cagliari LLDWW. Full preview

Torino v Como, Tuesday, 27 October 2026 19:45 UTC

Como to win at 65.3%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 50.3%. Form: Torino WWWDL, Como WWWLD. Full preview

AC Milan v Bologna, Wednesday, 28 October 2026 17:30 UTC

AC Milan to win at 69.1%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 45.9%. Form: Milan LWWDW, Bologna WLWDL. Full preview

Parma v Udinese, Wednesday, 28 October 2026 17:30 UTC

Udinese to win at 49.9%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 38.4%. Form: Parma LLLWL, Udinese LLLLL. Full preview

Venezia v Internazionale, Wednesday, 28 October 2026 17:30 UTC

Internazionale to win at 78.3%, most likely score 0-3, Over 2.5 at 75.9%. Form: Venezia WLLLL, Inter Milan WWLWD. Full preview

Genoa v Juventus, Wednesday, 28 October 2026 19:45 UTC

Juventus to win at 68.9%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 37.8%. Form: Genoa LWLDL, Juventus DLWDW. Full preview

Monza v Napoli, Wednesday, 28 October 2026 19:45 UTC

Napoli to win at 64%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 75.6%. Form: Monza LWLWL, Napoli DWLLW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Serie A probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.