Liga Profesional predictions: every match from 16 October to 27 October 2026

19 Liga Profesional fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 18 games the model calls close.

19 Liga Profesional matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Tuesday, 27 October 2026. The model makes 1 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Independiente against Boca Juniors, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Independiente22.8%vBoca Juniors50.5%Boca to win · 50.5%

Boca Juniors are a narrow favourite at 50.5% (draw 26.7%, Independiente 22.8%). Expected goals come out at 1 for Independiente and 1.5 for Boca Juniors, with 0-1 the most likely exact score. The total sits close to the 2.5 line, and both teams to score is a coin flip at 50.3%. Bookmakers price Boca Juniors at about 44.4%, so the model is 6.1 points more confident than the market. Form: Independiente DDLWD, Boca Juniors WDWWW (most recent first).

Every fixture

Defensa y Justicia v Instituto (Córdoba), Friday, 16 October 2026 22:00 UTC

Instituto (Córdoba) to win at 36.4%, Over 2.5 at 47.6%. Form: Def. y Jus. WLWWD, Instituto WDWWW. Full preview

Boca Juniors v Talleres (Córdoba), Saturday, 17 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Boca Juniors to win at 52.7%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 47.4%. Form: Boca WDWWW, Talleres LLDLL. Full preview

Banfield v Argentinos Juniors, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:00 UTC

Argentinos Juniors to win at 50.5%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 42.9%. Form: Banfield DLWDD, Argentinos WDWLD. Full preview

Independiente Rivadavia v Tigre, Saturday, 17 October 2026 20:30 UTC

Independiente Rivadavia to win at 47%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 47.3%. Form: Ind. Rivadavia DLDWW, Tigre LDLLL. Full preview

Platense v Lanús, Saturday, 17 October 2026 20:30 UTC

Lanús to win at 39.5%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 30.9%. Form: Platense WLDDL, Lanús DWWDW. Full preview

Atlético Tucumán v Rosario Central, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:00 UTC

Rosario Central to win at 45.3%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 31.3%. Form: Atl Tucumán WLDLL, Rosario Central WWDWW. Full preview

Vélez Sarsfield v Gimnasia (Mendoza), Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:00 UTC

Vélez Sarsfield to win at 53.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 43.7%. Form: Vélez WLDWD, Gimnasia (M) LLWLD. Full preview

Racing Club v Independiente, Sunday, 18 October 2026 17:45 UTC

Racing Club to win at 45.6%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42%. Form: Racing DLWWL, Independiente DDLWD. Full preview

Estudiantes de La Plata v San Lorenzo, Sunday, 18 October 2026 21:00 UTC

Estudiantes de La Plata to win at 40.8%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 22.5%. Form: Estudiantes LDWLW, San Lorenzo DWWLL. Full preview

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v Aldosivi, Sunday, 18 October 2026 21:00 UTC

Aldosivi to win at 40.9%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 25.7%. Form: Estudiantes RC WLLLL, Aldosivi LLLWL. Full preview

Belgrano (Córdoba) v River Plate, Sunday, 18 October 2026 23:15 UTC

River Plate to win at 47.3%, Over 2.5 at 31.1%. Form: Belgrano LWWWD, River Plate WDWLW. Full preview

Aldosivi v Belgrano (Córdoba), Sunday, 25 October 2026 17:45 UTC

Belgrano (Córdoba) to win at 51.8%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 36.5%. Form: Aldosivi LLLWL, Belgrano LWWWD. Full preview

Independiente v Boca Juniors, Sunday, 25 October 2026 20:00 UTC

Boca Juniors to win at 50.5%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 45.2%. Form: Independiente DDLWD, Boca WDWWW. Full preview

River Plate v Racing Club, Sunday, 25 October 2026 22:15 UTC

River Plate to win at 65.3%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 50.9%. Form: River Plate WDWLW, Racing DLWWL. Full preview

Barracas Central v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, Monday, 26 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Barracas Central to win at 59.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 25%. Form: Barracas DWWLD, Estudiantes RC WLLLL. Full preview

Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) v Vélez Sarsfield, Monday, 26 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Vélez Sarsfield to win at 45.4%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 39%. Form: C. Córdoba (SE) LDDDL, Vélez WLDWD. Full preview

Unión (Santa Fe) v Estudiantes de La Plata, Monday, 26 October 2026 22:00 UTC

Estudiantes de La Plata to win at 38.6%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 53.6%. Form: Unión (SF) DLLLL, Estudiantes LDWLW. Full preview

Instituto (Córdoba) v Deportivo Riestra, Tuesday, 27 October 2026 00:15 UTC

Instituto (Córdoba) to win at 43%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 26.3%. Form: Instituto WDWWW, Riestra DLDDL. Full preview

Argentinos Juniors v Independiente Rivadavia, Tuesday, 27 October 2026 22:00 UTC

Argentinos Juniors to win at 49.8%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 51.3%. Form: Argentinos WDWLD, Ind. Rivadavia DLDWW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Liga Profesional probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.