MLS predictions: every match from 17 October to 18 October 2026

15 MLS fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 0 clear favourites, 15 games the model calls close.

15 MLS matches are scheduled between Saturday, 17 October 2026 and Sunday, 18 October 2026. The model makes 0 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is New England Revolution against Chicago Fire FC, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

New England Revolution35%vChicago Fire FC37.3%Chicago to win · 37.3%

Chicago Fire FC are a marginal favourite at 37.3% (draw 27.8%, New England Revolution 35%). Expected goals come out at 1.8 for New England Revolution and 1.5 for Chicago Fire FC, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (64.1%), and both teams to score is likely at 66%. Form: New England Revolution LWWWW, Chicago Fire FC WDWLL (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Robert Lewandowski's jersey outselling Lionel Messi's since Chicago arrival".

Every fixture

Philadelphia Union v Charlotte FC, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:30 UTC

Philadelphia Union to win at 60.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 71.8%. Form: Philadelphia LDLDW, Charlotte WWLDL. Full preview

Minnesota United FC v St. Louis CITY SC, Saturday, 17 October 2026 20:30 UTC

Minnesota United FC to win at 38.4%, Over 2.5 at 73.4%. Form: Minnesota WWDWD, St. Louis LLLLD. Full preview

Atlanta United FC v Inter Miami CF, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:30 UTC

Inter Miami CF to win at 51%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.9%. Form: Atlanta WLLLW, Miami WDLWW. Full preview

New England Revolution v Chicago Fire FC, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:30 UTC

Chicago Fire FC to win at 37.3%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 64.1%. Form: New England LWWWW, Chicago WDWLL. Full preview

New York City FC v LAFC, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:30 UTC

LAFC to win at 48.4%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 37.1%. Form: NYCFC DWDDL, LAFC LDDWD. Full preview

Orlando City SC v D.C. United, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:30 UTC

Orlando City SC to win at 50%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 75%. Form: Orlando LDDWD, D.C. United LLLLL. Full preview

Red Bull New York v Toronto FC, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:30 UTC

Red Bull New York to win at 42.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 57.2%. Form: Red Bull NY LLWLL, Toronto LWLWD. Full preview

Austin FC v Vancouver Whitecaps, Sunday, 18 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 61.5%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 55.7%. Form: Austin LLWLL, Vancouver WWLWD. Full preview

Houston Dynamo FC v FC Dallas, Sunday, 18 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo FC to win at 42%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 48%. Form: Houston LWDDD, Dallas DLWDW. Full preview

Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake, Sunday, 18 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Real Salt Lake to win at 44.5%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 62.6%. Form: Kansas City DLLLL, Salt Lake LWWWD. Full preview

LA Galaxy v San Diego FC, Sunday, 18 October 2026 02:30 UTC

LA Galaxy to win at 40.4%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 69.4%. Form: LA Galaxy WDDWL, San Diego WLDDD. Full preview

Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids, Sunday, 18 October 2026 02:30 UTC

Portland Timbers to win at 40.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 58.5%. Form: Portland WWWDL, Colorado LDWDD. Full preview

San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC, Sunday, 18 October 2026 02:30 UTC

Nashville SC to win at 51.9%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 53.8%. Form: San Jose WDLDD, Nashville WDWDW. Full preview

Seattle Sounders FC v CF Montréal, Sunday, 18 October 2026 02:30 UTC

Seattle Sounders FC to win at 58.9%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 51.2%. Form: Seattle LLDDL, CF Montréal DLLDL. Full preview

FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew, Sunday, 18 October 2026 21:00 UTC

FC Cincinnati to win at 37.5%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 79.6%. Form: Cincinnati WDWWL, Columbus WWWWW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

MLS probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.