Serie A predictions: every match from 16 October to 2 November 2026

18 Serie A fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 17 games the model calls close.

18 Serie A matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Monday, 2 November 2026. The model makes 1 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is AC Milan against Internazionale, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

AC Milan23.1%vInternazionale51.2%Inter Milan to win · 51.2%

Internazionale are a narrow favourite at 51.2% (draw 25.7%, AC Milan 23.1%). Expected goals come out at 1.3 for AC Milan and 1.9 for Internazionale, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (62.8%), and both teams to score is likely at 63.8%. On Elo ratings Internazionale are the clearly stronger side (100 points of edge including home advantage). Form: AC Milan LWLWW, Internazionale WWWWL (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Sources: New Milan, Inter stadium gets $725M naming rights deal with Generali".

Every fixture

Frosinone v Sassuolo, Friday, 16 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Sassuolo to win at 36.7%, Over 2.5 at 57.4%. Form: Frosinone WDWLW, Sassuolo LLLDL. Full preview

Venezia v Napoli, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Napoli to win at 61.1%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 67.9%. Form: Venezia LLWLL, Napoli WDWLL. Full preview

Bologna v Internazionale, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:00 UTC

Internazionale to win at 63.6%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 63.4%. Form: Bologna WWLWD, Inter Milan WWWWL. Full preview

AS Roma v Genoa, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:45 UTC

AS Roma to win at 57.7%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 56%. Form: AS Roma WDWWL, Genoa WWLWL. Full preview

Udinese v Lecce, Sunday, 18 October 2026 10:30 UTC

Udinese to win at 47.7%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 50.3%. Form: Udinese DLLLL, Lecce LLWLL. Full preview

Fiorentina v Como, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Como to win at 49.5%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 49.3%. Form: Fiorentina DLLLD, Como WWWWL. Full preview

AC Milan v Atalanta, Sunday, 18 October 2026 16:00 UTC

AC Milan to win at 50.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 41.8%. Form: Milan LWLWW, Atalanta DDLLW. Full preview

Juventus v Lazio, Sunday, 18 October 2026 18:45 UTC

Juventus to win at 57.5%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 37%. Form: Juventus LWDLW, Lazio WWWWW. Full preview

Bologna v Monza, Saturday, 31 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Bologna to win at 51.4%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 77.2%. Form: Bologna WWLWD, Monza LLWLW. Full preview

Udinese v AS Roma, Saturday, 31 October 2026 17:00 UTC

AS Roma to win at 66%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 55.2%. Form: Udinese DLLLL, AS Roma WDWWL. Full preview

AC Milan v Internazionale, Saturday, 31 October 2026 19:45 UTC

Internazionale to win at 51.2%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 62.8%. Form: Milan LWLWW, Inter Milan WWWWL. Full preview

Como v Venezia, Sunday, 1 November 2026 11:30 UTC

Como to win at 64.1%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 62.8%. Form: Como WWWWL, Venezia LLWLL. Full preview

Frosinone v Torino, Sunday, 1 November 2026 14:00 UTC

Frosinone to win at 34.8%, most likely score 3-1, Over 2.5 at 84.8%. Form: Frosinone WDWLW, Torino LWWWD. Full preview

Lazio v Cagliari, Sunday, 1 November 2026 14:00 UTC

Lazio to win at 63%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 54.5%. Form: Lazio WWWWW, Cagliari LLLDW. Full preview

Lecce v Genoa, Sunday, 1 November 2026 17:00 UTC

Genoa to win at 45.7%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 34.4%. Form: Lecce LLWLL, Genoa WWLWL. Full preview

Juventus v Napoli, Sunday, 1 November 2026 19:45 UTC

Juventus to win at 40.9%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 40.9%. Form: Juventus LWDLW, Napoli WDWLL. Full preview

Sassuolo v Fiorentina, Monday, 2 November 2026 17:30 UTC

Fiorentina to win at 43.6%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 65.5%. Form: Sassuolo LLLDL, Fiorentina DLLLD. Full preview

Atalanta v Parma, Monday, 2 November 2026 19:45 UTC

Atalanta to win at 60.5%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 45.7%. Form: Atalanta DDLLW, Parma DLLLW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Serie A probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.