Bundesliga predictions: every match from 16 October to 1 November 2026

18 Bundesliga fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 2 clear favourites, 16 games the model calls close.

18 Bundesliga matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Sunday, 1 November 2026. The model makes 2 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Bayern Munich against Borussia Dortmund, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Bayern Munich71.5%vBorussia Dortmund10.7%Bayern to win · 71.5%

Bayern Munich are a solid favourite at 71.5% (draw 17.8%, Borussia Dortmund 10.7%). Expected goals come out at 1.9 for Bayern Munich and 1 for Borussia Dortmund, with 2-1 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (56.8%), and both teams to score is likely at 56.6%. On Elo ratings Bayern Munich are the clearly stronger side (181 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Bayern Munich WDWDD, Borussia Dortmund WWDLD (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Borussia Dortmund must stop Bayern's 'sensational' Harry Kane - Kovac".

Every fixture

Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Cologne, Friday, 16 October 2026 18:30 UTC

Eintracht Frankfurt to win at 47.5%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 75.8%. Form: Frankfurt LWLDW, Cologne DLWLD. Full preview

1. FC Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:30 UTC

Borussia Dortmund to win at 64.1%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 64.5%. Form: Union Berlin DDWLL, Dortmund WWDLD. Full preview

Hamburg SV v VfB Stuttgart, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:30 UTC

VfB Stuttgart to win at 55.6%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 66.6%. Form: Hamburg LWWWL, Stuttgart LDLWW. Full preview

Schalke 04 v Mainz, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:30 UTC

Mainz to win at 46.4%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 35.1%. Form: Schalke DLLDW, Mainz LWLWL. Full preview

SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:30 UTC

FC Augsburg to win at 39%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 59.1%. Form: Elversberg LWLDL, Augsburg DLDLD. Full preview

Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07, Saturday, 17 October 2026 13:30 UTC

Werder Bremen to win at 50%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 29.7%. Form: Bremen WDDWD, Paderborn WDLWL. Full preview

Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:30 UTC

Bayern Munich to win at 76.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 77.4%. Form: Bayern WDWDD, RB Leipzig WLLWW. Full preview

Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:30 UTC

Bayer Leverkusen to win at 53%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 69%. Form: Leverkusen LWWWW, Freiburg LLLWW. Full preview

Borussia Mönchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:30 UTC

TSG Hoffenheim to win at 48%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 74.3%. Form: Gladbach WLLLL, Hoffenheim WWWLL. Full preview

SV Elversberg v Mainz, Friday, 30 October 2026 19:30 UTC

Mainz to win at 47.7%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 76.3%. Form: Elversberg LWLDL, Mainz LWLWL. Full preview

Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart, Saturday, 31 October 2026 14:30 UTC

Bayer Leverkusen to win at 49.1%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 73.1%. Form: Leverkusen LWWWW, Stuttgart LDLWW. Full preview

Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07, Saturday, 31 October 2026 14:30 UTC

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win at 46%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 41.1%. Form: Gladbach WLLLL, Paderborn WDLWL. Full preview

FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg, Saturday, 31 October 2026 14:30 UTC

SC Freiburg to win at 46.3%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.9%. Form: Augsburg DLDLD, Freiburg LLLWW. Full preview

Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig, Saturday, 31 October 2026 14:30 UTC

RB Leipzig to win at 55.9%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 26.6%. Form: Schalke DLLDW, RB Leipzig WLLWW. Full preview

Werder Bremen v TSG Hoffenheim, Saturday, 31 October 2026 14:30 UTC

TSG Hoffenheim to win at 44.1%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 72.1%. Form: Bremen WDDWD, Hoffenheim WWWLL. Full preview

Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday, 31 October 2026 17:30 UTC

Bayern Munich to win at 71.5%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 56.8%. Form: Bayern WDWDD, Dortmund WWDLD. Full preview

1. FC Union Berlin v FC Cologne, Sunday, 1 November 2026 14:30 UTC

FC Cologne to win at 39.9%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 48.5%. Form: Union Berlin DDWLL, Cologne DLWLD. Full preview

Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburg SV, Sunday, 1 November 2026 16:30 UTC

Eintracht Frankfurt to win at 59.3%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 58.9%. Form: Frankfurt LWLDW, Hamburg LWWWL. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Bundesliga probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.