PSG v Lyon headlines 26 October: 43 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

43 games across 20 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

Monday, 26 October 2026 brings 43 games across WTA Curitiba Open, WTA Guangzhou Open, WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis, ATP Erste Bank Open and 16 more. 6 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Paris Saint-Germain against Lyon in the Ligue 1. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.

The big one: Paris Saint-Germain v Lyon

Paris Saint-Germain66.1%vLyon13.8%PSG to win · 66.1%

Why it matters: PSG sit 5th (14 pts), Lyon 4th (14 pts); PSG have won 7 in a row.

Paris Saint-Germain are a solid favourite at 66.1% (draw 20.1%, Lyon 13.8%). Expected goals come out at 1.7 for Paris Saint-Germain and 1.1 for Lyon, with 2-1 the most likely exact score. The total sits close to the 2.5 line, and both teams to score is likely at 56.8%. On Elo ratings Paris Saint-Germain are the clearly stronger side (170 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Paris Saint-Germain WWWWW, Lyon LWWLW (most recent first).

The two sides have met 4 times recently: Paris Saint-Germain won 3, Lyon won 1 and 0 were draws, averaging 4.25 goals a game with both teams scoring in 100% of them.

Team news: Luis Enrique: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will be back stronger for PSG after ACL injury. Paris Saint-Germain boss Luis Enrique says winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will come back stronger after he suffered an anterior cruciate ligament injury.

Playoff games, table clashes and streaks

• Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks (NBA, 23:30 UTC): Heat sit 30th (0-3), Mavericks 19th (1-2); Heat have lost 4 in a row. Model: Heat 61.7%.
• Santa Clara v Benfica (Primeira Liga, 18:45 UTC): a top-of-the-table meeting, 4th against 2nd (18 pts v 19 pts); Benfica have won 3 in a row. Model: Benfica 72.1%.
• Galatasaray v Fenerbahce (Super Lig, 18:30 UTC): a top-of-the-table meeting, 2nd against 3rd (19 pts v 16 pts). Model: Galatasaray 49.7%.
• Universidad de Chile v Everton CD (Primera Division, 21:00 UTC): a top-of-the-table meeting, 2nd against 4th (45 pts v 39 pts); U de Chile have won 3 in a row. Model: U de Chile 55.1%.
• Walsall v Salford City (League Two, 20:00 UTC): Walsall sit 6th (19 pts), Salford City 1st (25 pts); Salford City have won 6 in a row. Model: Salford City 51.7%.
• Caykur Rizespor v Trabzonspor (Super Lig, 16:00 UTC): Caykur Rizespor sit 13th (10 pts), Trabzonspor 4th (16 pts); Trabzonspor have won 5 in a row. Model: Trabzonspor 57.3%.

Where the model and the bookmakers disagree

A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 5 games clear that bar today.

A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.

Upset watch

• Coritiba (40.2%) over Grêmio. Draw 27.7%, Grêmio 32.1%.
• Sevilla (48.5%) over Osasuna. Draw 26.2%, Osasuna 25.3%.
• Llaneros FC (46.2%) over Jaguares de Córdoba. Draw 29.3%, Jaguares 24.5%.
• Stade de Reims (49.5%) over Boulogne. Draw 26.1%, Boulogne 24.4%.
• FC Andorra (53.7%) over Burgos. Draw 22.5%, Burgos 23.8%.

Goals markets

• Over 2.5 lean: Galatasaray v Fenerbahce, 69.1% (expected goals 1.6 and 1.9)
• Over 2.5 lean: F.C. København v Odense Boldklub, 60.9% (expected goals 2.4 and 0.7)
• Over 2.5 lean: Besiktas v Istanbul Basaksehir, 60.5% (expected goals 1.8 and 1.3)
• Under 2.5 lean: Montpellier v Red Star FC 93, 70%
• Under 2.5 lean: Boulogne v Stade de Reims, 65.1%
• Both teams to score: Galatasaray v Fenerbahce is the strongest at 69.8%

Yesterday in one line

81 of 148 picks landed (54.7%), against a running 55.8% over 1637 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review

Every game today, 43 predictions

• 04:00 UTC Carolina Alves v Julia Grabher (WTA Curitiba Open): J. Grabher 84.1%
• 06:30 UTC Shi Han v Alevtina Ibragimova (WTA Guangzhou Open): H. Shi 58.3%
• 07:30 UTC Paula Badosa v Wang Xiyu (WTA Guangzhou Open): P. Badosa 62.8%
• 08:00 UTC Alexandra Eala v Mika Stojsavljevic (WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis): A. Eala 91.5%
• 09:00 UTC Harriet Dart v Tatiana Prozorova (WTA Guangzhou Open): T. Prozorova 58.8%
• 12:30 UTC Matteo Berrettini v Tomas Martin Etcheverry (ATP Erste Bank Open): M. Berrettini 58.7%
• 12:30 UTC Valentin Vacherot v Mariano Navone (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): V. Vacherot 61.6%
• 14:00 UTC Holger Rune v Quentin Halys (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): H. Rune 52%
• 14:00 UTC Tomas Machac v Alex de Minaur (ATP Erste Bank Open): A. de Minaur 70.9%
• 14:00 UTC Daniel Altmaier v Juan Manuel Cerundolo (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): J. Cerundolo 54%
• 14:00 UTC Laura Samson v Alice Tubello (WTA Curitiba Open): L. Samson 71.8%
• 15:00 UTC Lisa Zaar v Ayla Aksu (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): A. Aksu 75.4%
• 15:30 UTC Fernanda Labrana v Gabriela Ce (WTA Curitiba Open): F. Labrana 51.9%
• 16:00 UTC Besiktas v Istanbul Basaksehir (Super Lig): Besiktas 79.5%, likely 2-1
• 16:00 UTC Caykur Rizespor v Trabzonspor (Super Lig): Trabzonspor 57.3%, likely 0-2
• 16:30 UTC Arthur Fery v Jacob Fearnley (ATP Erste Bank Open): A. Fery 55.3%
• 16:30 UTC Jakub Mensik v Lukas Neumayer (ATP Erste Bank Open): J. Mensik 83%
• 17:00 UTC Jessica Pieri v Elizara Yaneva (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): E. Yaneva 57.4%
• 17:00 UTC Victoria Bosio v Jazmin Ortenzi (WTA Curitiba Open): J. Ortenzi 57.8%
• 18:00 UTC F.C. København v Odense Boldklub (Danish Superliga): København 66%, likely 2-0
• 18:00 UTC Luciano Darderi v Matteo Arnaldi (ATP Erste Bank Open): L. Darderi 58.4%
• 18:30 UTC Galatasaray v Fenerbahce (Super Lig): Galatasaray 49.7%, likely 2-1
• 18:45 UTC Santa Clara v Benfica (Primeira Liga): Benfica 72.1%, likely 0-1
• 19:00 UTC Luca Van Assche v Learner Tien (ATP Erste Bank Open): L. Tien 72.4%
• 19:00 UTC Dominic Stricker v Alexander Bublik (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): C. Ruud 80.9%
• 19:30 UTC Paris Saint-Germain v Lyon (Ligue 1): PSG 66.1%, likely 2-1
• 19:30 UTC FC Andorra v Burgos (LaLiga 2): FC Andorra 53.7%, likely 1-0
• 19:30 UTC Danka Kovinic v Noma Noha Akugue (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): N. Noha Akugue 69.1%
• 19:30 UTC Luisina Giovannini v Lucia Bronzetti (WTA Curitiba Open): L. Bronzetti 60.8%
• 19:45 UTC Montpellier v Red Star FC 93 (Ligue 2): Montpellier 49.2%, likely 1-0
• 19:45 UTC Boulogne v Stade de Reims (Ligue 2): Reims 49.5%, likely 0-1
• 20:00 UTC Sevilla v Osasuna (La Liga): Sevilla 48.5%, likely 2-1
• 20:00 UTC Walsall v Salford City (League Two): Salford City 51.7%, likely 0-1
• 21:00 UTC Universidad de Chile v Everton CD (Primera Division): U de Chile 55.1%, likely 2-0
• 22:00 UTC Unión (Santa Fe) v Estudiantes de La Plata (Liga Profesional): Estudiantes 38.6%, likely 1-2
• 22:30 UTC Coritiba v Grêmio (Brasileirao): Coritiba 40.2%, likely 2-1
• 23:00 UTC Flamengo v Atlético-MG (Brasileirao): Flamengo 72.5%, likely 1-0
• 23:00 UTC Jaguares de Córdoba v Llaneros FC (Primera A): Llaneros FC 46.2%, likely 1-2
• 23:00 UTC Charlotte Hornets v Washington Wizards (NBA): Hornets 64.5%
• 23:00 UTC Cleveland Cavaliers v Minnesota Timberwolves (NBA): Cavaliers 58.1%
• 23:00 UTC New York Rangers v Los Angeles Kings (NHL): Rangers 70.6%
• 23:30 UTC Boston Celtics v Chicago Bulls (NBA): Celtics 63.2%
• 23:30 UTC Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks (NBA): Heat 61.7%

How to read these numbers

Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.