Brasileirao predictions: every match from 16 October to 25 October 2026

17 Brasileirao fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 4 clear favourites, 13 games the model calls close.

17 Brasileirao matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Sunday, 25 October 2026. The model makes 4 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Athletico-PR against Palmeiras, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Athletico-PR28.6%vPalmeiras44.7%Palmeiras to win · 44.7%

Palmeiras are a marginal favourite at 44.7% (draw 26.7%, Athletico-PR 28.6%). Expected goals come out at 1.1 for Athletico-PR and 1.5 for Palmeiras, with 0-1 the most likely exact score. The total sits close to the 2.5 line, and both teams to score is a coin flip at 53.9%. Bookmakers price Palmeiras at about 40.6%, so the model is 4.1 points more confident than the market. Form: Athletico-PR LWDWD, Palmeiras WWWDW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Depay misses late penalty, Estudiantes advance to Libertadores semis after 17 years".

Every fixture

Mirassol v Internacional, Friday, 16 October 2026 23:00 UTC

Mirassol to win at 40.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.8%. Form: Mirassol WLDWD, Internacional LDWLW. Full preview

Botafogo v Chapecoense, Saturday, 17 October 2026 21:00 UTC

Botafogo to win at 71.2%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 61.3%. Form: Botafogo WDLLW, Chapecoense LLLDL. Full preview

Atlético-MG v Coritiba, Saturday, 17 October 2026 21:30 UTC

Atlético-MG to win at 61.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 60.3%. Form: Atlético-MG WWDWD, Coritiba LDLLD. Full preview

Athletico-PR v Palmeiras, Saturday, 17 October 2026 22:30 UTC

Palmeiras to win at 44.7%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 49%. Form: Athletico-PR LWDWD, Palmeiras WWWDW. Full preview

São Paulo v Vasco da Gama, Sunday, 18 October 2026 00:00 UTC

São Paulo to win at 44.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 40.4%. Form: São Paulo WWLLW, Vasco LDWWW. Full preview

Fluminense v Santos, Sunday, 18 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Fluminense to win at 40.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 60.2%. Form: Fluminense LLWWL, Santos WLDWW. Full preview

Grêmio v Cruzeiro, Sunday, 18 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Cruzeiro to win at 43.5%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 50.5%. Form: Grêmio LDDDL, Cruzeiro WLWWL. Full preview

Bahia v Flamengo, Sunday, 18 October 2026 21:30 UTC

Flamengo to win at 49.8%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 45.2%. Form: Bahia LWLLW, Flamengo WWDWW. Full preview

Remo v Red Bull Bragantino, Sunday, 18 October 2026 22:30 UTC

Red Bull Bragantino to win at 47.9%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 44.8%. Form: Remo DDDLL, Bragantino DWDLL. Full preview

Cruzeiro v Remo, Friday, 23 October 2026 23:00 UTC

Cruzeiro to win at 78.6%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 62.6%. Form: Cruzeiro WLWWL, Remo DDDLL. Full preview

Internacional v Botafogo, Saturday, 24 October 2026 19:30 UTC

Internacional to win at 56.1%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 43.1%. Form: Internacional LDWLW, Botafogo WDLLW. Full preview

Mirassol v São Paulo, Saturday, 24 October 2026 19:30 UTC

Mirassol to win at 45.8%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 37.6%. Form: Mirassol WLDWD, São Paulo WWLLW. Full preview

Vitória v Athletico-PR, Saturday, 24 October 2026 19:30 UTC

Vitória to win at 43.1%, Over 2.5 at 54.9%. Form: Vitória DLWLD, Athletico-PR LWDWD. Full preview

Palmeiras v Red Bull Bragantino, Saturday, 24 October 2026 21:30 UTC

Palmeiras to win at 67.3%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 45.4%. Form: Palmeiras WWWDW, Bragantino DWDLL. Full preview

Vasco da Gama v Corinthians, Saturday, 24 October 2026 21:30 UTC

Vasco da Gama to win at 67.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 43.3%. Form: Vasco LDWWW, Corinthians DLLLL. Full preview

Chapecoense v Fluminense, Saturday, 24 October 2026 22:30 UTC

Fluminense to win at 61.5%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 59.5%. Form: Chapecoense LLLDL, Fluminense LLWWL. Full preview

Santos v Bahia, Sunday, 25 October 2026 00:00 UTC

Santos to win at 55%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 57.1%. Form: Santos WLDWW, Bahia LWLLW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Brasileirao probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.