Brasileirao predictions: every match from 16 October to 29 October 2026

16 Brasileirao fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 3 clear favourites, 13 games the model calls close.

16 Brasileirao matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Thursday, 29 October 2026. The model makes 3 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Flamengo against Atlético-MG, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Flamengo72.5%vAtlético-MG9.5%Flamengo to win · 72.5%

Flamengo are a solid favourite at 72.5% (draw 18%, Atlético-MG 9.5%). Expected goals come out at 1.8 for Flamengo and 0.7 for Atlético-MG, with 1-0 the most likely exact score. The model expects a tight game, Under 2.5 at 55%, and both teams to score is unlikely at 43.3%. On Elo ratings Flamengo are the clearly stronger side (224 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Flamengo WWDWW, Atlético-MG WWDWD (most recent first).

Every fixture

Mirassol v Internacional, Friday, 16 October 2026 23:00 UTC

Mirassol to win at 40.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.8%. Form: Mirassol DWLDW, Internacional WLDWL. Full preview

Botafogo v Chapecoense, Saturday, 17 October 2026 21:00 UTC

Botafogo to win at 71.2%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 61.3%. Form: Botafogo LWDLL, Chapecoense WLLLD. Full preview

Atlético-MG v Coritiba, Saturday, 17 October 2026 21:30 UTC

Atlético-MG to win at 61.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 60.3%. Form: Atlético-MG WWDWD, Coritiba LDLLD. Full preview

Athletico-PR v Palmeiras, Saturday, 17 October 2026 22:30 UTC

Palmeiras to win at 44.7%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 49%. Form: Athletico-PR DLWDW, Palmeiras WWWWD. Full preview

São Paulo v Vasco da Gama, Sunday, 18 October 2026 00:00 UTC

São Paulo to win at 44.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 40.4%. Form: São Paulo DWWLL, Vasco WLDWW. Full preview

Fluminense v Santos, Sunday, 18 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Fluminense to win at 40.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 60.2%. Form: Fluminense LLLWW, Santos WLDWW. Full preview

Grêmio v Cruzeiro, Sunday, 18 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Cruzeiro to win at 43.5%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 50.5%. Form: Grêmio LDDDL, Cruzeiro WWLWW. Full preview

Bahia v Flamengo, Sunday, 18 October 2026 21:30 UTC

Flamengo to win at 49.8%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 45.2%. Form: Bahia LWLLW, Flamengo WWDWW. Full preview

Remo v Red Bull Bragantino, Sunday, 18 October 2026 22:30 UTC

Red Bull Bragantino to win at 47.9%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 44.8%. Form: Remo LDDDL, Bragantino LDWDL. Full preview

Coritiba v Grêmio, Monday, 26 October 2026 22:30 UTC

Coritiba to win at 40.2%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 53.9%. Form: Coritiba LDLLD, Grêmio LDDDL. Full preview

Flamengo v Atlético-MG, Monday, 26 October 2026 23:00 UTC

Flamengo to win at 72.5%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 45%. Form: Flamengo WWDWW, Atlético-MG WWDWD. Full preview

Fluminense v Internacional, Wednesday, 28 October 2026 22:30 UTC

Fluminense to win at 55.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 50.8%. Form: Fluminense LLLWW, Internacional WLDWL. Full preview

Red Bull Bragantino v Chapecoense, Wednesday, 28 October 2026 22:30 UTC

Red Bull Bragantino to win at 88.1%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 54.4%. Form: Bragantino LDWDL, Chapecoense WLLLD. Full preview

Santos v Palmeiras, Wednesday, 28 October 2026 22:30 UTC

Palmeiras to win at 45%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 46%. Form: Santos WLDWW, Palmeiras WWWWD. Full preview

Bahia v São Paulo, Thursday, 29 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Bahia to win at 50.9%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 39.7%. Form: Bahia LWLLW, São Paulo DWWLL. Full preview

Remo v Botafogo, Thursday, 29 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Botafogo to win at 47%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 42.3%. Form: Remo LDDDL, Botafogo LWDLL. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Brasileirao probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.