Liga MX predictions: every match from 17 October to 2 November 2026

18 Liga MX fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 2 clear favourites, 16 games the model calls close.

18 Liga MX matches are scheduled between Saturday, 17 October 2026 and Monday, 2 November 2026. The model makes 2 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is América against Toluca, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

América35.6%vToluca35.6%América to win · 35.6%

América are a marginal favourite at 35.6% (draw 28.8%, Toluca 35.6%). Expected goals come out at 2.1 for América and 1.6 for Toluca, with 2-1 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (71.9%), and both teams to score is likely at 71.4%. Bookmakers price América at about 41.2%, so the model is 5.6 points below the market. Form: América DLWWD, Toluca DDDLD (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Club América to honour retired Mexico legend Guillermo Ochoa".

Every fixture

Necaxa v Atlas, Saturday, 17 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Atlas to win at 38.4%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 60.4%. Form: Necaxa DLLDL, Atlas WLWDW. Full preview

Atlante v Pumas UNAM, Saturday, 17 October 2026 03:00 UTC

Pumas UNAM to win at 38%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 54.5%. Form: Atlante LWLLW, UNAM DLWDL. Full preview

Tijuana v Puebla, Saturday, 17 October 2026 03:05 UTC

Tijuana to win at 45.4%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.4%. Form: Tijuana DWDDD, Puebla LLDDL. Full preview

Santos v Querétaro, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:00 UTC

Santos to win at 39.1%, Over 2.5 at 38%. Form: Santos LWWWW, Queretaro LLLWW. Full preview

Guadalajara v Tigres UANL, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:07 UTC

Guadalajara to win at 48.4%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 45.9%. Form: Guadalajara WWDDL, Tigres DLDWW. Full preview

León v América, Sunday, 18 October 2026 01:00 UTC

América to win at 47.4%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 55%. Form: León DWLDW, América DLWWD. Full preview

Toluca v Atlético de San Luis, Sunday, 18 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Toluca to win at 67.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 72.6%. Form: Toluca DDDLD, Atl. San Luis WWDLW. Full preview

Cruz Azul v FC Juárez, Sunday, 18 October 2026 03:10 UTC

Cruz Azul to win at 67.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 75.6%. Form: Cruz Azul WWWDD, Juárez DLLDL. Full preview

Monterrey v Pachuca, Monday, 19 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Monterrey to win at 58.5%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 53.7%. Form: Monterrey LWWDL, Pachuca WLLDL. Full preview

Atlético de San Luis v Atlas, Saturday, 31 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Atlas to win at 40%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 63.3%. Form: Atl. San Luis WWDLW, Atlas WLWDW. Full preview

FC Juárez v Querétaro, Saturday, 31 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Querétaro to win at 45%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 47.5%. Form: Juárez DLLDL, Queretaro LLLWW. Full preview

Puebla v Pumas UNAM, Saturday, 31 October 2026 03:00 UTC

Pumas UNAM to win at 47.6%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 51.7%. Form: Puebla LLDDL, UNAM DLWDL. Full preview

Pachuca v Tigres UANL, Saturday, 31 October 2026 23:00 UTC

Pachuca to win at 37.4%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.1%. Form: Pachuca WLLDL, Tigres DLDWW. Full preview

Monterrey v Tijuana, Sunday, 1 November 2026 01:05 UTC

Monterrey to win at 64.2%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 54.3%. Form: Monterrey LWWDL, Tijuana DWDDD. Full preview

Guadalajara v Atlante, Sunday, 1 November 2026 01:07 UTC

Guadalajara to win at 60.1%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 39.8%. Form: Guadalajara WWDDL, Atlante LWLLW. Full preview

América v Toluca, Sunday, 1 November 2026 03:10 UTC

América to win at 35.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 71.9%. Form: América DLWWD, Toluca DDDLD. Full preview

Santos v Necaxa, Sunday, 1 November 2026 23:00 UTC

Santos to win at 46.4%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 60.1%. Form: Santos LWWWW, Necaxa DLLDL. Full preview

Cruz Azul v León, Monday, 2 November 2026 01:10 UTC

Cruz Azul to win at 50.2%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 69.6%. Form: Cruz Azul WWWDD, León DWLDW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Liga MX probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.