Celtics v Bulls headlines 30 October: 69 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

69 games across 34 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

Friday, 30 October 2026 brings 69 games across WTA Guangzhou Open, Hong Kong International Cricket Sixes, CWC Challenge League Group A, India tour of New Zealand 2026/27 and 30 more. 11 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Boston Celtics against Chicago Bulls in the NBA. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.

The big one: Boston Celtics v Chicago Bulls

Boston Celtics63.2%vChicago Bulls36.8%Celtics to win · 63.2%

Why it matters: NBA Cup - Group Play; Celtics sit 8th (3-1), Bulls 29th (1-4); Celtics have won 3 in a row; Bulls have lost 3 in a row.

NBA Cup - Group Play. Boston Celtics are a solid favourite at 63.2% against Chicago Bulls at 36.8%. Form: Boston Celtics WWWLW, Chicago Bulls LLLWL (most recent first).

Team news: Debunk or double down? Judging 10 early-season NBA overreactions. A 29-year-old is the NBA's next breakout star. Miami's Giannis era is already cooked. And so are the Thunder, Knicks and Warriors. Which overreactions are valid?

Playoff games, table clashes and streaks

• Le Havre AC v Paris Saint-Germain (Ligue 1, 18:00 UTC): Le Havre AC sit 18th (2 pts), PSG 1st (17 pts); Le Havre AC have lost 4 in a row; PSG have won 8 in a row. Model: PSG 80.5%.
• Brooklyn Nets v Detroit Pistons (NBA, 23:30 UTC): NBA Cup - Group Play; Nets sit 24th (0-4), Pistons 9th (4-1); Nets have lost 5 in a row. Model: Pistons 52.5%.
• Bodo/Glimt v Viking FK (Eliteserien, 18:00 UTC): a top-of-the-table meeting, 2nd against 1st (56 pts v 59 pts). Model: Bodo/Glimt 68.5%.
• Florida Panthers v Winnipeg Jets (NHL, 23:00 UTC): Panthers sit 16th (7-4), Jets 29th (4-6); Jets have lost 6 in a row. Model: Panthers 64.6%.
• Al Shabab v Al Ahli (Saudi Pro League, 18:00 UTC): Al Shabab sit 12th (11 pts), Al Ahli 5th (21 pts); Al Ahli have won 4 in a row. Model: Al Ahli 60.8%.
• Zulte-Waregem v Club Brugge (Belgian Pro League, 19:45 UTC): Zulte-Waregem sit 10th (11 pts), Club Brugge 2nd (24 pts); Zulte-Waregem have lost 4 in a row; Club Brugge have won 6 in a row. Model: Club Brugge 73.9%.

Where the model and the bookmakers disagree

A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 6 games clear that bar today.

A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.

Upset watch

• Metz (44.1%) over Pau, who have won 4 straight. Draw 28.8%, Pau 27.2%.
• Huracán (45.1%) over Tigre, with Huracán on a 3-game losing run. Draw 27.3%, Tigre 27.6%.
• Auckland FC (42.7%) over Brisbane Roar FC. Draw 26.3%, Brisbane 30.9%.
• Stade Laval (41.6%) over Boulogne. Draw 26.4%, Boulogne 32%.
• Stade Rennais (42.3%) over Nice. Draw 25.8%, Nice 31.9%.

Goals markets

• Over 2.5 lean: SV Elversberg v Mainz, 76.3% (expected goals 1.8 and 2.2)
• Over 2.5 lean: Al Shabab v Al Ahli, 68.8% (expected goals 1.2 and 2.4)
• Over 2.5 lean: Rodez Aveyron v Dunkerque, 68.1% (expected goals 1.9 and 1.6)
• Under 2.5 lean: Al Diriyah v Neom SC, 82.2%
• Under 2.5 lean: Huracán v Tigre, 72.5%
• Both teams to score: SV Elversberg v Mainz is the strongest at 75.4%

Yesterday in one line

51 of 93 picks landed (54.8%), against a running 56% over 1946 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review

Every game today, 69 predictions

• 05:05 UTC Paula Badosa v Harriet Dart (WTA Guangzhou Open): P. Badosa 60.1%
• 05:20 UTC Bangladesh v Sri Lanka (Hong Kong International Cricket Sixes): SL 60.8%
• 06:15 UTC India v Pakistan (Hong Kong International Cricket Sixes): IND 67.8%
• 06:30 UTC Kaitlin Quevedo v Jil Teichmann (WTA Guangzhou Open): K. Quevedo 53.2%
• 06:45 UTC Denmark v Jersey (CWC Challenge League Group A): JER 68.5%
• 06:45 UTC Kuwait v Papua New Guinea (CWC Challenge League Group A): KUW 73.5%
• 07:00 UTC New Zealand v India (India tour of New Zealand 2026/27): IND 75.1%
• 07:30 UTC Namibia v Ireland (Ireland tour of Namibia 2026/27): NAM 61.9%
• 08:00 UTC Alexandra Eala v Diana Shnaider (WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis): D. Shnaider 57.1%
• 08:05 UTC Australia v England (Hong Kong International Cricket Sixes): ENG 65.1%
• 08:10 UTC Brisbane Heat Women v Sydney Sixers Women (Women's Big Bash League): SS-W 66.9%
• 09:00 UTC Brisbane Roar FC v Auckland FC (A-League Men): Auckland 42.7%, likely 1-2
• 11:00 UTC Lilli Tagger v Shi Han (WTA Guangzhou Open): L. Tagger 53.5%
• 12:30 UTC Abha v Al Ittihad (Saudi Pro League): Al Ittihad 71.6%, likely 0-2
• 12:30 UTC Adrian Mannarino v Daniil Medvedev (ATP Erste Bank Open): D. Medvedev 72%
• 13:00 UTC Holger Rune v Valentin Vacherot (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): V. Vacherot 50.7%
• 13:00 UTC Marina Bassols Ribera v Alina Charaeva (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): A. Charaeva 65.2%
• 13:00 UTC Ayla Aksu v Noma Noha Akugue (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): A. Aksu 60.1%
• 14:00 UTC Tommy Paul v Carlos Alcaraz (ATP Erste Bank Open): C. Alcaraz 77.8%
• 14:00 UTC Anna Blinkova v Martyna Kubka (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): A. Blinkova 58.9%
• 14:30 UTC Elsa Jacquemot v Elizara Yaneva (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): E. Yaneva 58.2%
• 14:30 UTC Taylor Fritz v Arthur Fils (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): A. Fils 54.4%
• 14:50 UTC Al Diriyah v Neom SC (Saudi Pro League): Neom SC 45%, likely 0-1
• 15:00 UTC Julia Riera v Solana Sierra (WTA Curitiba Open): S. Sierra 54.8%
• 15:00 UTC Leyre Romero Gormaz v Julia Grabher (WTA Curitiba Open): J. Grabher 57.5%
• 16:30 UTC Francesca Jones v Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva (WTA Curitiba Open): F. Jones 64.3%
• 16:30 UTC Alexander Zverev v Arthur Fery (ATP Erste Bank Open): A. Zverev 79.6%
• 17:00 UTC Konyaspor v Galatasaray (Super Lig): Galatasaray 70%, likely 0-1
• 17:00 UTC Jerome Kym v Jiri Lehecka (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): J. Lehecka 67.3%
• 17:30 UTC Arminia Bielefeld v TSV Eintracht Braunschweig (2. Bundesliga): Bielefeld 55.8%, likely 2-1
• 17:30 UTC Energie Cottbus v VfL Bochum (2. Bundesliga): Bochum 47.9%
• 18:00 UTC Le Havre AC v Paris Saint-Germain (Ligue 1): PSG 80.5%, likely 0-2
• 18:00 UTC Lyngby Boldklub v Randers FC (Danish Superliga): Lyngby 43.5%, likely 2-1
• 18:00 UTC Bodo/Glimt v Viking FK (Eliteserien): Bodo/Glimt 68.5%, likely 2-1
• 18:00 UTC Al Shabab v Al Ahli (Saudi Pro League): Al Ahli 60.8%, likely 1-2
• 18:00 UTC Nice v Stade Rennais (Ligue 1): Rennes 42.3%, likely 1-2
• 18:00 UTC Alice Tubello v Jazmin Ortenzi (WTA Curitiba Open): J. Ortenzi 52.5%
• 18:30 UTC Grazer AK v TSV Hartberg (Austrian Bundesliga): Grazer 39.4%, likely 2-1
• 18:30 UTC Jan-Lennard Struff v Nuno Borges (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): J. Struff 51.7%
• 19:00 UTC Grenoble v Dijon FCO (Ligue 2): Dijon FCO 50.1%, likely 1-2
• 19:00 UTC Metz v Pau (Ligue 2): Metz 44.1%, likely 2-1
• 19:00 UTC Nantes v Clermont Foot (Ligue 2): Nantes 76.4%, likely 1-0
• 19:00 UTC Rodez Aveyron v Dunkerque (Ligue 2): Rodez Aveyron 50.6%, likely 2-1
• 19:00 UTC Stade Laval v Boulogne (Ligue 2): Stade Laval 41.6%, likely 1-0
• 19:00 UTC Matteo Berrettini v Alex de Minaur (ATP Erste Bank Open): A. de Minaur 68.6%
• 19:30 UTC SV Elversberg v Mainz (Bundesliga): Mainz 39.7%, likely 1-2
• 19:45 UTC Newport County v Chesterfield (League Two): Chesterfield 57%, likely 1-2
• 19:45 UTC Zulte-Waregem v Club Brugge (Belgian Pro League): Club Brugge 73.9%, likely 0-2
• 20:00 UTC Villarreal v Espanyol (La Liga): Villarreal 75.1%, likely 2-0
• 20:00 UTC Sheffield United v Wrexham (Championship): Sheffield Utd 37.7%, likely 2-1
• 20:00 UTC Tatjana Maria v Valeriya Strakhova (WTA Queretaro Open): T. Maria 83.7%
• 20:05 UTC Lille v Lens (Ligue 1): Lens 44.2%
• 20:15 UTC Casa Pia v Sporting CP (Primeira Liga): Sporting 82.2%, likely 0-2
• 21:00 UTC Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares de Córdoba (Primera A): Pereira 44.4%, likely 1-0
• 21:30 UTC Nadia Podoroska v Carole Monnet (WTA Queretaro Open): N. Podoroska 64.1%
• 22:00 UTC Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v Gimnasia La Plata (Liga Profesional): Gimnasia LP 60.3%, likely 0-1
• 22:00 UTC Huracán v Tigre (Liga Profesional): Huracán 45.1%, likely 1-0
• 22:00 UTC Colo Colo v Universidad de Concepción (Primera Division): Colo Colo 81.4%, likely 2-0
• 22:00 UTC Coquimbo Unido v Unión La Calera (Primera Division): Coquimbo 63%, likely 2-0
• 22:00 UTC Vegas Golden Knights v New Jersey Devils (NHL): Golden Knights 57.5%
• 23:00 UTC Corinthians v Mirassol (Brasileirao): Corinthians 59%, likely 1-0
• 23:00 UTC Washington Wizards v Charlotte Hornets (NBA): Wizards 50.1%
• 23:00 UTC Charlotte 49ers v Tulane Green Wave (NCAA Football): Tulane 52.9%
• 23:00 UTC Florida Panthers v Winnipeg Jets (NHL): Panthers 64.6%
• 23:30 UTC Boston Celtics v Chicago Bulls (NBA): Celtics 63.2%
• 23:30 UTC Brooklyn Nets v Detroit Pistons (NBA): Pistons 52.5%
• 23:30 UTC Philadelphia 76ers v New York Knicks (NBA): 76ers 55.7%
• 23:30 UTC Toronto Raptors v Orlando Magic (NBA): Raptors 57.7%
• 23:30 UTC UCF Knights v Baylor Bears (NCAA Football): UCF 55.5%

How to read these numbers

Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.