Newcastle v Everton headlines 2 November: 53 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

53 games across 21 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

Monday, 2 November 2026 brings 53 games across ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2, WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, Women's Big Bash League, WTA Chennai Open and 17 more. 5 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Newcastle United against Everton in the Premier League. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.

The big one: Newcastle United v Everton

Newcastle United36.1%vEverton35.1%Newcastle to win · 36.1%

Why it matters: Newcastle sit 12th (11 pts), Everton 14th (10 pts).

Newcastle United are a marginal favourite at 36.1% (draw 28.8%, Everton 35.1%). Expected goals come out at 1.6 for Newcastle United and 1.2 for Everton, with 2-1 the most likely exact score. The total sits close to the 2.5 line, and both teams to score is likely at 56.9%. Bookmakers price Newcastle United at about 41.1%, so the model is 5 points below the market. On Elo ratings Newcastle United are the clearly stronger side (81 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Newcastle United WLLWL, Everton LLDWD (most recent first).

The two sides have met 3 times recently: Newcastle United won 1, Everton won 2 and 0 were draws, averaging 3.67 goals a game with both teams scoring in 66.7% of them.

Team news: Jack Grealish misses Everton-Newcastle due to 'breach of club discipline'. Jack Grealish was made unavailable for Everton's Carabao Cup round of 16 match against Newcastle on Thursday due to what the club called a "breach of club discipline."

Playoff games, table clashes and streaks

• Benfica v Alverca (Primeira Liga, 20:15 UTC): Benfica sit 2nd (22 pts), Alverca 10th (11 pts); Benfica have won 4 in a row. Model: Benfica 78.7%.
• Sassuolo v Fiorentina (Serie A, 17:30 UTC): Sassuolo sit 15th (8 pts), Fiorentina 17th (5 pts); Sassuolo have lost 3 in a row. Model: Fiorentina 43.6%.
• Red Star FC 93 v AS Nancy Lorraine (Ligue 2, 19:45 UTC): Red Star FC sit 6th (17 pts), Nancy 4th (19 pts); Nancy have won 4 in a row. Model: Red Star FC 44.2%.
• Tenerife v FC Andorra (LaLiga 2, 13:00 UTC): Tenerife sit 12th (14 pts), FC Andorra 20th (10 pts); Tenerife have drawn 3 in a row. Model: Tenerife 46.6%.
• Sønderjyske Fodbold v F.C. København (Danish Superliga, 18:00 UTC): Sønderjyske sit 12th (8 pts), København 2nd (26 pts); København have drawn 3 in a row. Model: København 72.9%.
• Atromitos v Volos NFC (Greek Super League, 16:00 UTC): a relegation six-pointer, 13th against 14th. Model: Atromitos 51.7%.

Where the model and the bookmakers disagree

A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 2 games clear that bar today.

A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.

Upset watch

• Red Star FC 93 (44.2%) over AS Nancy Lorraine, who have won 4 straight, with Red Star FC on a 2-game losing run. Draw 26.7%, Nancy 29.1%.
• Real Valladolid (47.7%) over Leganés, with Valladolid on a 2-game losing run. Draw 27.2%, Leganés 25.1%.
• Deportivo (45.2%) over Osasuna. Draw 28.4%, Osasuna 26.4%.
• Vitória de Guimaraes (43%) over Gil Vicente. Draw 30.7%, Gil Vicente 26.4%.
• Fiorentina (43.6%) over Sassuolo. Draw 29.9%, Sassuolo 26.5%.

Goals markets

• Over 2.5 lean: Sønderjyske Fodbold v F.C. København, 73.6% (expected goals 1.1 and 2.7)
• Over 2.5 lean: Kalamata v Iraklis, 72% (expected goals 2 and 1.8)
• Over 2.5 lean: Benfica v Alverca, 71.2% (expected goals 3 and 0.7)
• Under 2.5 lean: Mallorca v Cádiz, 71.9%
• Under 2.5 lean: Gil Vicente v Vitória de Guimaraes, 67.3%
• Both teams to score: Kalamata v Iraklis is the strongest at 72.3%

Yesterday in one line

86 of 136 picks landed (63.2%), against a running 57% over 2375 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review

Every game today, 53 predictions

• 05:30 UTC Netherlands v Oman (ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2): NED 77%
• 07:50 UTC Katie Volynets v Alexandra Shubladze (WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open): A. Sasnovich 52.9%
• 08:00 UTC Carol Young Suh Lee v Maria Sakkari (WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open): M. Sakkari 68.2%
• 08:10 UTC Melbourne Stars Women v Perth Scorchers Women (Women's Big Bash League): PS-W 55.2%
• 09:30 UTC Mananchaya Sawangkaew v Mai Hontama (WTA Chennai Open): M. Sawangkaew 63.3%
• 09:30 UTC Jeline Vandromme v Kyoka Okamura (WTA Chennai Open): K. Okamura 56%
• 09:30 UTC Aliona Falei v Magda Linette (WTA Chennai Open): M. Linette 55.5%
• 10:00 UTC Lorenzo Musetti v Hubert Hurkacz (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): L. Musetti 54.9%
• 10:00 UTC Ignacio Buse v Zizou Bergs (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): Z. Bergs 56.9%
• 10:00 UTC Luciano Darderi v Rinky Hijikata (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): L. Darderi 54.2%
• 10:30 UTC Venus Williams v Mary Stoiana (WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open): M. Stoiana 88.8%
• 10:30 UTC Mei Yamaguchi v Zhibek Kulambayeva (WTA Chennai Open): Z. Kulambayeva 55.9%
• 11:00 UTC Moyuka Uchijima v Rebecca Sramkova (WTA Chennai Open): R. Sramkova 59.6%
• 11:00 UTC Linda Fruhvirtova v Weronika Falkowska (WTA Chennai Open): W. Falkowska 55.9%
• 11:30 UTC Luca Van Assche v Mariano Navone (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): M. Navone 54.7%
• 11:30 UTC Alejandro Tabilo v Rafael Jodar (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): R. Jodar 72.8%
• 12:30 UTC Sahaja Yamalapalli v Simona Waltert (WTA Chennai Open): S. Waltert 68.5%
• 13:00 UTC Tenerife v FC Andorra (LaLiga 2): Tenerife 46.6%, likely 2-1
• 13:00 UTC Daniel Merida v Alexander Blockx (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): D. Merida 55.9%
• 13:00 UTC Cameron Norrie v Matteo Arnaldi (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): C. Norrie 61.6%
• 13:00 UTC Casper Ruud v Juan Manuel Cerundolo (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): C. Ruud 62.9%
• 14:30 UTC Mattia Bellucci v Lorenzo Sonego (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): M. Bellucci 54%
• 14:30 UTC Kyrian Jacquet v Tomas Machac (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): T. Machac 51.1%
• 15:15 UTC Real Oviedo v Las Palmas (LaLiga 2): Real Oviedo 62.6%, likely 1-0
• 16:00 UTC Atromitos v Volos NFC (Greek Super League): Atromitos 51.7%, likely 1-0
• 16:00 UTC Alex Molcan v Titouan Droguet (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): A. Molcan 68.7%
• 16:00 UTC Leolia Jeanjean v Lucia Bronzetti (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): L. Jeanjean 61.2%
• 17:00 UTC Genclerbirligi v Alanyaspor (Super Lig): Genclerbirli 37.1%, likely 1-0
• 17:30 UTC Sassuolo v Fiorentina (Serie A): Fiorentina 43.6%, likely 1-2
• 17:30 UTC Real Valladolid v Leganés (LaLiga 2): Valladolid 47.7%, likely 1-0
• 17:30 UTC Kalamata v Iraklis (Greek Super League): Kalamata 49.9%, likely 2-1
• 17:30 UTC Selena Janicijevic v Solana Sierra (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): S. Sierra 65.7%
• 18:00 UTC Sønderjyske Fodbold v F.C. København (Danish Superliga): København 72.9%, likely 1-2
• 18:00 UTC GAIS v AIK (Allsvenskan): GAIS 55.1%, likely 2-1
• 18:00 UTC Mjällby AIF v Kalmar FF (Allsvenskan): Kalmar FF 34.4%
• 18:00 UTC Denis Shapovalov v Karen Khachanov (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): K. Khachanov 54.2%
• 19:00 UTC Polona Hercog v Leyre Romero Gormaz (WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open): L. Romero Gormaz 60.1%
• 19:30 UTC Ugo Humbert v Botic Van De Zandschulp (ATP Rolex Paris Masters): B. Van De Zandschulp 56.5%
• 19:45 UTC Stade de Reims v Sochaux (Ligue 2): Reims 58.2%, likely 2-0
• 19:45 UTC Atalanta v Parma (Serie A): Atalanta 60.5%, likely 2-0
• 19:45 UTC Lorient v Brest (Ligue 1): Brest 37.3%
• 19:45 UTC Red Star FC 93 v AS Nancy Lorraine (Ligue 2): Red Star FC 44.2%, likely 1-0
• 20:00 UTC Newcastle United v Everton (Premier League): Newcastle 36.1%, likely 2-1
• 20:00 UTC Deportivo v Osasuna (La Liga): Deportivo 45.2%, likely 1-0
• 20:00 UTC Mallorca v Cádiz (LaLiga 2): Mallorca 70.9%, likely 1-0
• 20:15 UTC Benfica v Alverca (Primeira Liga): Benfica 78.7%, likely 2-0
• 20:15 UTC Gil Vicente v Vitória de Guimaraes (Primeira Liga): Vitória 43%, likely 0-1
• 21:00 UTC Deportes Limache v Audax Italiano (Primera Division): Limache 43.7%, likely 1-0
• 21:05 UTC Águilas Doradas v Fortaleza CEIF (Primera A): Águilas Doradas 56.1%, likely 1-0
• 22:00 UTC Defensa y Justicia v Independiente (Liga Profesional): Def. y Jus. 38.5%, likely 1-0
• 22:00 UTC Platense v Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (Liga Profesional): Platense 58%, likely 1-0
• 23:00 UTC Red Bull Bragantino v Santos (Brasileirao): Bragantino 47.3%, likely 2-1
• 23:30 UTC Deportes Concepcion v Palestino (Primera Division): Concepcion 36.6%, likely 1-0

How to read these numbers

Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.