Liga MX predictions: every match from 17 October to 25 October 2026

19 Liga MX fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 3 clear favourites, 16 games the model calls close.

19 Liga MX matches are scheduled between Saturday, 17 October 2026 and Sunday, 25 October 2026. The model makes 3 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Pachuca against Cruz Azul, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Pachuca28.1%1-2Cruz Azul44.1%Cruz Azul to win · 44.1%

Cruz Azul are a marginal favourite at 44.1% (draw 27.8%, Pachuca 28.1%). Expected goals come out at 1.6 for Pachuca and 1.6 for Cruz Azul, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (61%), and both teams to score is likely at 64.2%. Form: Pachuca LDLDW, Cruz Azul WDDLW (most recent first).

Every fixture

Necaxa v Atlas, Saturday, 17 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Atlas to win at 38.4%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 60.4%. Form: Necaxa LDLLL, Atlas WDWDL. Full preview

Atlante v Pumas UNAM, Saturday, 17 October 2026 03:00 UTC

Pumas UNAM to win at 38%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 54.5%. Form: Atlante LLWDL, UNAM WDLDL. Full preview

Tijuana v Puebla, Saturday, 17 October 2026 03:05 UTC

Tijuana to win at 45.4%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.4%. Form: Tijuana DDLDL, Puebla DDLDL. Full preview

Santos v Querétaro, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:00 UTC

Santos to win at 39.1%, Over 2.5 at 38%. Form: Santos WWWWW, Queretaro LWWDW. Full preview

Guadalajara v Tigres UANL, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:07 UTC

Guadalajara to win at 48.4%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 45.9%. Form: Guadalajara DDLDW, Tigres DWWLD. Full preview

León v América, Sunday, 18 October 2026 01:00 UTC

América to win at 47.4%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 55%. Form: León LDWDW, América WDWDL. Full preview

Toluca v Atlético de San Luis, Sunday, 18 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Toluca to win at 67.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 72.6%. Form: Toluca DLDLW, Atl. San Luis DLWWL. Full preview

Cruz Azul v FC Juárez, Sunday, 18 October 2026 03:10 UTC

Cruz Azul to win at 67.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 75.6%. Form: Cruz Azul WDDLW, Juárez LDLWL. Full preview

Monterrey v Pachuca, Monday, 19 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Monterrey to win at 58.5%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 53.7%. Form: Monterrey WDLWD, Pachuca LDLDW. Full preview

Atlas v América, Thursday, 22 October 2026 01:00 UTC

América to win at 49.1%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 62.3%. Form: Atlas WDWDL, América WDWDL. Full preview

Puebla v Monterrey, Thursday, 22 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Monterrey to win at 54.1%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 40.3%. Form: Puebla DDLDL, Monterrey WDLWD. Full preview

Toluca v Tijuana, Thursday, 22 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Toluca to win at 66.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 55.2%. Form: Toluca DLDLW, Tijuana DDLDL. Full preview

Pachuca v Cruz Azul, Thursday, 22 October 2026 03:10 UTC

Cruz Azul to win at 44.1%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 61%. Form: Pachuca LDLDW, Cruz Azul WDDLW. Full preview

Santos v Pumas UNAM, Thursday, 22 October 2026 03:10 UTC

Santos to win at 40.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 61.3%. Form: Santos WWWWW, UNAM WDLDL. Full preview

Necaxa v FC Juárez, Saturday, 24 October 2026 01:00 UTC

Necaxa to win at 62.3%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 64.8%. Form: Necaxa LDLLL, Juárez LDLWL. Full preview

Atlante v Atlético de San Luis, Saturday, 24 October 2026 03:00 UTC

Atlante to win at 44.5%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 51.3%. Form: Atlante LLWDL, Atl. San Luis DLWWL. Full preview

León v Toluca, Saturday, 24 October 2026 23:00 UTC

Toluca to win at 51.2%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 65%. Form: León LDWDW, Toluca DLDLW. Full preview

Monterrey v Guadalajara, Sunday, 25 October 2026 00:00 UTC

Guadalajara to win at 42.4%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 53.3%. Form: Monterrey WDLWD, Guadalajara DDLDW. Full preview

Pumas UNAM v Tigres UANL, Sunday, 25 October 2026 03:10 UTC

Pumas UNAM to win at 40.2%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 51.7%. Form: UNAM WDLDL, Tigres DWWLD. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Liga MX probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.