Celtics v Knicks headlines 23 October: 62 predictions, the stakes and where the value is
62 games across 33 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.
Friday, 23 October 2026 brings 62 games across ATP Almaty Open, WTA BNB Ningbo Open, WTA Kinoshita Group Japan Open, Zimbabwe Women tour of India 2026/27 and 29 more. 14 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Boston Celtics against New York Knicks in the NBA. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.
The big one: Boston Celtics v New York Knicks
Boston Celtics58.1%v
New York Knicks41.9%Celtics to win · 58.1%Why it matters: Celtics sit 19th (0-1), Knicks 16th (0-1).
Boston Celtics are a narrow favourite at 58.1% against New York Knicks at 41.9%. Form: Boston Celtics LWWWW, New York Knicks LWLLL (most recent first).
Team news: Takeaways: LeBron at center?! Why the 76ers had to get creative on opening night. Brian Windhorst examines a surprising shift for LeBron, plus more takeaways from the NBA's season-opening tripleheader.
Playoff games, table clashes and streaks
- Indiana Pacers v Dallas Mavericks (NBA, 23:00 UTC): Pacers sit 14th (1-0), Mavericks 24th (0-1); Mavericks have lost 3 in a row. Model: Pacers 55.4%.
- Charlotte Hornets v Atlanta Hawks (NBA, 23:00 UTC): Hornets sit 13th (1-0), Hawks 12th (1-0); Hawks have won 5 in a row. Model: Hornets 57%.
- Al Qadsiah v Al Hilal (Saudi Pro League, 18:00 UTC): a top-of-the-table meeting, 1st against 2nd (25 pts v 24 pts); Al Qadsiah have won 3 in a row; Al Hilal have won 3 in a row. Model: Al Hilal 49.2%.
- Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest (Premier League, 19:00 UTC): Ipswich sit 10th (9 pts), Nottm Forest 19th (5 pts); Nottm Forest have lost 3 in a row. Model: Nottm Forest 48.5%.
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach (Bundesliga, 18:30 UTC): Stuttgart sit 13th (6 pts), Gladbach 18th (0 pts); Gladbach have lost 6 in a row. Model: Stuttgart 80.5%.
- Boyacá Chicó FC v Atlético Bucaramanga (Primera A, 23:00 UTC): Chicó FC sit 17th (12 pts), Bucaramanga 5th (25 pts); Chicó FC have lost 3 in a row. Model: Bucaramanga 57.5%.
Where the model and the bookmakers disagree
A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 6 games clear that bar today.
| Match | Pick | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória de Guimaraes v Maritimo | Vitória | 72.9% | 63.6% | +9.3 |
| Boyacá Chicó FC v Atlético Bucaramanga | Bucaramanga | 57.5% | 50% | +7.5 |
| Gimnasia La Plata v Sarmiento (Junín) | Gimnasia LP | 67.7% | 60.8% | +6.9 |
| Clermont Foot v Guingamp | Guingamp | 48.6% | 42.6% | +6 |
| Go Ahead Eagles v Telstar | Go Ahead Eagles | 70.6% | 64.9% | +5.7 |
| SV Darmstadt 98 v St. Pauli | St. Pauli | 49.6% | 44.4% | +5.2 |
A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.
Upset watch
- Audax Italiano (48%) over Huachipato, who have won 3 straight. Draw 25.9%, Huachipato 26.1%.
- Nottingham Forest (48.5%) over Ipswich Town, with Nottm Forest on a 3-game losing run. Draw 27.7%, Ipswich 23.8%.
- Guingamp (48.6%) over Clermont Foot, with Guingamp on a 3-game losing run. Draw 30.4%, Clermont Foot 21%.
- Brisbane Roar (45.8%) over Perth Glory, with Brisbane on a 2-game losing run. Draw 25.7%, Perth Glory 28.5%.
- Sochaux (42.9%) over Annecy. Draw 25.9%, Annecy 31.1%.
Goals markets
- Over 2.5 lean: Torino v Monza, 76.9% (expected goals 2.3 and 1.7)
- Over 2.5 lean: Al Ahli v Al Khaleej, 73% (expected goals 3 and 0.8)
- Over 2.5 lean: VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach, 71.5% (expected goals 2.6 and 1.1)
- Under 2.5 lean: Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor, 75.8%
- Under 2.5 lean: Sochaux v Annecy, 71.9%
- Both teams to score: Torino v Monza is the strongest at 75%
Yesterday in one line
60 of 88 picks landed (68.2%), against a running 56.8% over 1200 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review
Every game today, 62 predictions
- 06:35 UTC Nikoloz Basilashvili v Adrian Mannarino (ATP Almaty Open): A. Mannarino 50.3%
- 07:15 UTC Leylah Fernandez v Ekaterina Alexandrova (WTA BNB Ningbo Open): L. Fernandez 51.1%
- 07:45 UTC Katie Boulter v Antonia Ruzic (WTA Kinoshita Group Japan Open): K. Boulter 60.9%
- 08:00 UTC Stefanos Tsitsipas v James Duckworth (ATP Almaty Open): S. Tsitsipas 70.8%
- 08:00 UTC Iva Jovic v Diana Shnaider (WTA BNB Ningbo Open): I. Jovic 51.6%
- 08:30 UTC India Women v Zimbabwe Women (Zimbabwe Women tour of India 2026/27): IND-W 92.1%
- 09:00 UTC Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory (A-League Men): Brisbane 45.8%, likely 1-0
- 09:00 UTC Lesotho v Zambia (ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C): ZMB 77.3%
- 09:00 UTC Nigeria v Mozambique (ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C): NGA 80.2%
- 09:30 UTC Daniil Medvedev v Terence Atmane (ATP Almaty Open): D. Medvedev 74.8%
- 11:00 UTC Elena Rybakina v Katarzyna Kawa (WTA BNB Ningbo Open): E. Rybakina 88.8%
- 12:00 UTC Clement Chidekh v Francisco Cerundolo (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): F. Cerundolo 72.1%
- 12:00 UTC Corentin Moutet v Tommy Paul (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): T. Paul 76.3%
- 13:00 UTC Gambia v Uganda (ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C): UGA 96.5%
- 13:30 UTC Al Faisaly v Al Nassr (Saudi Pro League): Al Nassr 82.1%, likely 0-2
- 13:30 UTC Daniel Altmaier v Taylor Fritz (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): T. Fritz 74.6%
- 14:00 UTC Tallon Griekspoor v Jiri Lehecka (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): J. Lehecka 73.5%
- 14:30 UTC Alexander Bublik v Karen Khachanov (ATP Almaty Open): A. Bublik 50.7%
- 15:30 UTC Al Ittihad v Al Diriyah (Saudi Pro League): Al Ittihad 53.4%, likely 1-0
- 16:30 UTC SV Darmstadt 98 v St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga): St. Pauli 49.6%, likely 0-1
- 16:30 UTC VfL Bochum v VfL Wolfsburg (2. Bundesliga): Wolfsburg 53.8%, likely 1-2
- 16:30 UTC Arthur Fils v Alex Michelsen (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): A. Fils 65%
- 17:00 UTC Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor (Super Lig): Alanyaspor 55.3%, likely 1-0
- 17:00 UTC Randers FC v Brøndby IF (Danish Superliga): Brøndby 56.1%, likely 0-1
- 17:00 UTC IF Elfsborg v Malmö FF (Allsvenskan): Elfsborg 45.5%, likely 1-0
- 17:00 UTC Västerås SK v Halmstads BK (Allsvenskan): Västerås 54.8%, likely 2-0
- 17:00 UTC Flavio Cobolli v Brandon Nakashima (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): B. Nakashima 58.6%
- 17:30 UTC SC Rheindorf Altach v Austria Vienna (Austrian Bundesliga): SC Rheindorf 47.3%, likely 1-0
- 18:00 UTC Go Ahead Eagles v Telstar (Eredivisie): Go Ahead Eagles 70.6%, likely 2-1
- 18:00 UTC AS Nancy Lorraine v Stade Laval (Ligue 2): Nancy 64.2%, likely 2-1
- 18:00 UTC Clermont Foot v Guingamp (Ligue 2): Guingamp 48.6%
- 18:00 UTC Dunkerque v Metz (Ligue 2): Metz 45.8%, likely 1-2
- 18:00 UTC Pau v Grenoble (Ligue 2): Pau 57.2%, likely 1-0
- 18:00 UTC Sochaux v Annecy (Ligue 2): Sochaux 42.9%, likely 1-0
- 18:00 UTC Al Ahli v Al Khaleej (Saudi Pro League): Al Ahli 73.8%, likely 3-0
- 18:00 UTC Al Qadsiah v Al Hilal (Saudi Pro League): Al Hilal 49.2%, likely 1-2
- 18:00 UTC Jan-Lennard Struff v Zizou Bergs (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): Z. Bergs 56.6%
- 18:30 UTC VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach (Bundesliga): Stuttgart 80.5%, likely 2-1
- 18:30 UTC Granada v Real Valladolid (LaLiga 2): Granada 43.4%, likely 2-1
- 18:30 UTC Empoli v Vicenza (Serie B): Empoli 39.6%, likely 2-1
- 18:30 UTC Luca Van Assche v Lorenzo Musetti (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): L. Musetti 73.4%
- 18:45 UTC Torino v Monza (Serie A): Torino 48.6%, likely 2-1
- 18:45 UTC Brest v Nice (Ligue 1): Brest 41%, likely 1-0
- 18:45 UTC KV Kortrijk v KV Mechelen (Belgian Pro League): KV Mechelen 44.3%, likely 0-1
- 19:00 UTC Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest (Premier League): Nottm Forest 48.5%, likely 1-2
- 19:00 UTC Alavés v Málaga (La Liga): Alavés 61.8%, likely 2-0
- 19:00 UTC Bolton Wanderers v Middlesbrough (Championship): Boro 64.9%, likely 1-2
- 19:45 UTC Vitória de Guimaraes v Maritimo (Primeira Liga): Vitória 72.9%, likely 1-0
- 20:00 UTC Milwaukee Bucks v Chicago Bulls (NBA): Bucks 57.7%
- 21:00 UTC Gimnasia La Plata v Sarmiento (Junín) (Liga Profesional): Gimnasia LP 67.7%, likely 2-1
- 21:30 UTC Gimnasia (Mendoza) v Platense (Liga Profesional): Gimnasia (M) 37.2%, likely 1-0
- 23:00 UTC Cruzeiro v Remo (Brasileirao): Cruzeiro 77.1%, likely 2-0
- 23:00 UTC Boyacá Chicó FC v Atlético Bucaramanga (Primera A): Bucaramanga 57.5%, likely 0-2
- 23:00 UTC Audax Italiano v Huachipato (Primera Division): Audax Italiano 48%, likely 1-0
- 23:00 UTC Boston Celtics v New York Knicks (NBA): Celtics 58.1%
- 23:00 UTC Charlotte Hornets v Atlanta Hawks (NBA): Hornets 57%
- 23:00 UTC Indiana Pacers v Dallas Mavericks (NBA): Pacers 55.4%
- 23:00 UTC Orlando Magic v Minnesota Timberwolves (NBA): Magic 56.5%
- 23:00 UTC Washington Wizards v Toronto Raptors (NBA): Raptors 50.4%
- 23:00 UTC Virginia Cavaliers v Duke Blue Devils (NCAA Football): Virginia 55.5%
- 23:00 UTC UConn Huskies v Massachusetts Minutemen (NCAA Football): UConn 55.5%
- 23:30 UTC Tasmania v Victoria (Australian Domestic One-Day Competition): TAS 66.6%
How to read these numbers
Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.