MLS predictions: every match from 17 October to 29 October 2026

30 MLS fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 6 clear favourites, 24 games the model calls close.

30 MLS matches are scheduled between Saturday, 17 October 2026 and Thursday, 29 October 2026. The model makes 6 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Inter Miami CF against FC Cincinnati, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Inter Miami CF65.4%vFC Cincinnati12.9%Miami to win · 65.4%

Inter Miami CF are a solid favourite at 65.4% (draw 21.7%, FC Cincinnati 12.9%). Expected goals come out at 3.2 for Inter Miami CF and 1.6 for FC Cincinnati, with 3-1 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (86.1%), and both teams to score is likely at 77.9%. On Elo ratings Inter Miami CF are the clearly stronger side (196 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Inter Miami CF LWWWL, FC Cincinnati WLLWL (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Lionel Messi comes off bench as Casemiro own goal sees Red Bulls beat Miami".

Every fixture

Philadelphia Union v Charlotte FC, Saturday, 17 October 2026 18:30 UTC

Philadelphia Union to win at 60.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 71.8%. Form: Philadelphia DWWWW, Charlotte DLWLW. Full preview

Minnesota United FC v St. Louis CITY SC, Saturday, 17 October 2026 20:30 UTC

Minnesota United FC to win at 38.4%, Over 2.5 at 73.4%. Form: Minnesota WDDLL, St. Louis LDWWW. Full preview

Atlanta United FC v Inter Miami CF, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:30 UTC

Inter Miami CF to win at 51%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 70.9%. Form: Atlanta LWLDW, Miami LWWWL. Full preview

New England Revolution v Chicago Fire FC, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:30 UTC

Chicago Fire FC to win at 37.3%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 64.1%. Form: New England WWLLW, Chicago LLWWW. Full preview

New York City FC v LAFC, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:30 UTC

LAFC to win at 48.4%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 37.1%. Form: NYCFC DLLDL, LAFC DWDLD. Full preview

Orlando City SC v D.C. United, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:30 UTC

Orlando City SC to win at 50%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 75%. Form: Orlando WDWLL, D.C. United LLWLD. Full preview

Red Bull New York v Toronto FC, Saturday, 17 October 2026 23:30 UTC

Red Bull New York to win at 42.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 57.2%. Form: Red Bull NY WLLWL, Toronto LWDWL. Full preview

Austin FC v Vancouver Whitecaps, Sunday, 18 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 61.5%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 55.7%. Form: Austin LLLDD, Vancouver WDDLD. Full preview

Houston Dynamo FC v FC Dallas, Sunday, 18 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo FC to win at 42%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 48%. Form: Houston DDDLD, Dallas DWLWD. Full preview

Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake, Sunday, 18 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Real Salt Lake to win at 44.5%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 62.6%. Form: Kansas City LLDLW, Salt Lake WDLWL. Full preview

LA Galaxy v San Diego FC, Sunday, 18 October 2026 02:30 UTC

LA Galaxy to win at 40.4%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 69.4%. Form: LA Galaxy DWLWW, San Diego DDLDD. Full preview

Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids, Sunday, 18 October 2026 02:30 UTC

Portland Timbers to win at 40.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 58.5%. Form: Portland DLDLL, Colorado DDDLD. Full preview

San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC, Sunday, 18 October 2026 02:30 UTC

Nashville SC to win at 51.9%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 53.8%. Form: San Jose DDDWD, Nashville WDWWW. Full preview

Seattle Sounders FC v CF Montréal, Sunday, 18 October 2026 02:30 UTC

Seattle Sounders FC to win at 58.9%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 51.2%. Form: Seattle DLWWW, CF Montréal LDLLW. Full preview

FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew, Sunday, 18 October 2026 21:00 UTC

FC Cincinnati to win at 37.5%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 79.6%. Form: Cincinnati WLLWL, Columbus WWWLW. Full preview

LAFC v LA Galaxy, Monday, 26 October 2026 01:00 UTC

LAFC to win at 68.3%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 52.6%. Form: LAFC DWDLD, LA Galaxy DWLWW. Full preview

Charlotte FC v CF Montréal, Wednesday, 28 October 2026 23:30 UTC

Charlotte FC to win at 66.2%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 61.9%. Form: Charlotte DLWLW, CF Montréal LDLLW. Full preview

Inter Miami CF v FC Cincinnati, Wednesday, 28 October 2026 23:30 UTC

Inter Miami CF to win at 65.4%, most likely score 3-1, Over 2.5 at 86.1%. Form: Miami LWWWL, Cincinnati WLLWL. Full preview

New England Revolution v Red Bull New York, Wednesday, 28 October 2026 23:30 UTC

New England Revolution to win at 48.1%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 51.8%. Form: New England WWLLW, Red Bull NY WLLWL. Full preview

New York City FC v Atlanta United FC, Wednesday, 28 October 2026 23:30 UTC

New York City FC to win at 53.7%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 45.8%. Form: NYCFC DLLDL, Atlanta LWLDW. Full preview

Toronto FC v D.C. United, Wednesday, 28 October 2026 23:30 UTC

Toronto FC to win at 50.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 64.2%. Form: Toronto LWDWL, D.C. United LLWLD. Full preview

Austin FC v Real Salt Lake, Thursday, 29 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Real Salt Lake to win at 45.9%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 52.7%. Form: Austin LLLDD, Salt Lake WDLWL. Full preview

Chicago Fire FC v Orlando City SC, Thursday, 29 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Chicago Fire FC to win at 65.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 80.1%. Form: Chicago LLWWW, Orlando WDWLL. Full preview

FC Dallas v Columbus Crew, Thursday, 29 October 2026 00:30 UTC

FC Dallas to win at 49.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 66%. Form: Dallas DWLWD, Columbus WWWLW. Full preview

Minnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas City, Thursday, 29 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Minnesota United FC to win at 76.5%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 81.6%. Form: Minnesota WDDLL, Kansas City LLDLW. Full preview

Nashville SC v Philadelphia Union, Thursday, 29 October 2026 00:30 UTC

Nashville SC to win at 52.7%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 60.3%. Form: Nashville WDWWW, Philadelphia DWWWW. Full preview

St. Louis CITY SC v Portland Timbers, Thursday, 29 October 2026 00:30 UTC

St. Louis CITY SC to win at 54.3%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 74.6%. Form: St. Louis LDWWW, Portland DLDLL. Full preview

San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids, Thursday, 29 October 2026 02:30 UTC

San Jose Earthquakes to win at 46.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 45.7%. Form: San Jose DDDWD, Colorado DDDLD. Full preview

Seattle Sounders FC v Houston Dynamo FC, Thursday, 29 October 2026 02:30 UTC

Seattle Sounders FC to win at 58.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 38.5%. Form: Seattle DLWWW, Houston DDDLD. Full preview

Vancouver Whitecaps v San Diego FC, Thursday, 29 October 2026 02:30 UTC

Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 72.4%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 71.1%. Form: Vancouver WDDLD, San Diego DDLDD. Full preview

A note on the numbers

MLS probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.