Celtics v Nets headlines 27 October: 54 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

54 games across 20 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

Tuesday, 27 October 2026 brings 54 games across ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2, CWC Challenge League Group A, Ireland tour of Namibia 2026/27, Australia tour of South Africa 2026/27 and 16 more. 3 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Boston Celtics against Brooklyn Nets in the NBA. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.

The big one: Boston Celtics v Brooklyn Nets

Boston Celtics66.1%125-124Brooklyn Nets33.9%Celtics to win · 66.1%

Why it matters: Celtics sit 9th (2-1), Nets 26th (0-3); Nets have lost 4 in a row.

Boston Celtics are a solid favourite at 66.1% against Brooklyn Nets at 33.9%. Form: Boston Celtics WWLWW, Brooklyn Nets LLLLW (most recent first).

Playoff games, table clashes and streaks

• Sassuolo v Lazio (Serie A, 17:30 UTC): Sassuolo sit 14th (8 pts), Lazio 2nd (22 pts); Lazio have won 4 in a row. Model: Lazio 49.4%.
• Torino v Como (Serie A, 19:45 UTC): Torino sit 8th (13 pts), Como 5th (17 pts); Torino have won 3 in a row; Como have won 3 in a row. Model: Como 59%.

Where the model and the bookmakers disagree

A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 3 games clear that bar today.

A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.

Upset watch

• Abha (43.1%) over Al Faisaly, with Abha on a 2-game losing run. Draw 25.6%, Al Faisaly 31.3%.
• Cúcuta Deportivo (40.4%) over Águilas Doradas. Draw 27.5%, Águilas Doradas 32.2%.
• Sheffield Wednesday (46.6%) over Cambridge United, with Sheffield Wed on a 2-game losing run. Draw 27.6%, Cambridge 25.8%.
• Mantova (42.6%) over Cremonese. Draw 28.9%, Cremonese 28.5%.
• Barnet (47.6%) over York City. Draw 26.3%, York City 26.2%.

Goals markets

• Over 2.5 lean: Benevento v Catanzaro, 69.2% (expected goals 2.8 and 0.8)
• Over 2.5 lean: Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United, 65.1% (expected goals 2.1 and 1.2)
• Over 2.5 lean: Barnet v York City, 64.7% (expected goals 1.7 and 1.6)
• Under 2.5 lean: Padova v Sudtirol, 72.3%
• Under 2.5 lean: Virtus Entella v US Avellino, 61.9%
• Both teams to score: Barnet v York City is the strongest at 66.9%

Yesterday in one line

45 of 73 picks landed (61.6%), against a running 56% over 1711 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review

Every game today, 54 predictions

• 05:30 UTC Netherlands v Oman (ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2): NED 75.7%
• 06:45 UTC Jersey v Kuwait (CWC Challenge League Group A): JER 71.9%
• 06:45 UTC Papua New Guinea v Qatar (CWC Challenge League Group A): QAT 54.4%
• 07:30 UTC Namibia v Ireland (Ireland tour of Namibia 2026/27): NAM 55.8%
• 08:30 UTC South Africa v Australia (Australia tour of South Africa 2026/27): SA 45.4%
• 12:40 UTC Abha v Al Faisaly (Saudi Pro League): Abha 43.1%
• 12:40 UTC Tommy Paul v Andrey Rublev (ATP Erste Bank Open): T. Paul 65.5%
• 13:10 UTC Alejandro Tabilo v Rafael Jodar (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): R. Jodar 74.3%
• 13:20 UTC Jerome Kym v Arthur Rinderknech (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): A. Rinderknech 60.9%
• 14:00 UTC Karen Khachanov v Carlos Alcaraz (ATP Erste Bank Open): C. Alcaraz 85.4%
• 14:00 UTC Adrian Mannarino v Ignacio Buse (ATP Erste Bank Open): A. Mannarino 53.8%
• 14:00 UTC Julia Riera v Rebeka Masarova (WTA Curitiba Open): R. Masarova 59%
• 14:30 UTC Alex Michelsen v Botic Van De Zandschulp (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): A. Michelsen 54.1%
• 14:30 UTC Hubert Hurkacz v Arthur Fils (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): A. Fils 85.1%
• 14:30 UTC Mia Ristic v Martyna Kubka (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): M. Kubka 54.1%
• 15:30 UTC Cameron Norrie v Francisco Cerundolo (ATP Erste Bank Open): F. Cerundolo 63.8%
• 16:00 UTC Anna Blinkova v Dalma Galfi (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): A. Blinkova 61.8%
• 16:00 UTC Susan Bandecchi v Anastasiia Sobolieva (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): S. Bandecchi 58.1%
• 16:30 UTC Alexander Zverev v Martin Landaluce (ATP Erste Bank Open): A. Zverev 92%
• 17:00 UTC Ben Shelton v Casper Ruud (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): B. Shelton 85.2%
• 17:00 UTC Fiona Ferro v Sofia Johnson (WTA Queretaro Open): F. Ferro 67.6%
• 17:00 UTC Polona Hercog v Martina Capurro Taborda (WTA Queretaro Open): P. Hercog 77%
• 17:00 UTC Elizabeth Mandlik v Emiliana Arango (WTA Queretaro Open): E. Arango 60.2%
• 17:30 UTC Sassuolo v Lazio (Serie A): Lazio 49.4%, likely 0-1
• 18:00 UTC Benevento v Catanzaro (Serie B): Benevento 61.5%, likely 2-0
• 18:00 UTC AIK v IF Elfsborg (Allsvenskan): Elfsborg 55.8%, likely 1-2
• 18:30 UTC Stan Wawrinka v Jiri Lehecka (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): J. Lehecka 79.6%
• 18:30 UTC Carole Monnet v Leolia Jeanjean (WTA Queretaro Open): L. Jeanjean 72.2%
• 19:00 UTC Ascoli v Sampdoria (Serie B): Ascoli 37.1%, likely 2-0
• 19:00 UTC Cesena v Empoli (Serie B): Cesena 51.9%, likely 1-0
• 19:00 UTC Mantova v Cremonese (Serie B): Mantova 42.6%, likely 1-0
• 19:00 UTC Padova v Sudtirol (Serie B): Padova 47.4%, likely 1-0
• 19:00 UTC Vicenza v Modena (Serie B): Modena 53.6%, likely 1-2
• 19:00 UTC Virtus Entella v US Avellino (Serie B): Virtus Entella 53%, likely 1-0
• 19:00 UTC Flavio Cobolli v Grigor Dimitrov (ATP Erste Bank Open): F. Cobolli 61.6%
• 19:30 UTC Maria Lourdes Carle v Laura Pigossi (WTA Curitiba Open): M. Carle 62.5%
• 19:30 UTC Valeriya Strakhova v Sofia Costoulas (WTA Queretaro Open): S. Costoulas 67.2%
• 19:45 UTC AS Roma v Cagliari (Serie A): AS Roma 69.3%, likely 2-0
• 19:45 UTC Torino v Como (Serie A): Como 59%, likely 0-1
• 19:45 UTC Leicester City v Wigan Athletic (League One): Leicester 78.1%, likely 2-0
• 19:45 UTC Luton Town v Doncaster Rovers (League One): Luton 73.1%, likely 2-1
• 19:45 UTC Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley (League One): MK Dons 64.5%, likely 1-0
• 19:45 UTC Oxford United v Stockport County (League One): Stockport 54.6%
• 19:45 UTC Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United (League One): Sheffield Wed 46.6%, likely 2-1
• 19:45 UTC Barnet v York City (League Two): Barnet 47.6%, likely 2-1
• 21:00 UTC Carolina Alves v Julia Grabher (WTA Curitiba Open): J. Grabher 84.1%
• 21:00 UTC Tamara Zidansek v Katrina Scott (WTA Queretaro Open): T. Zidansek 70.9%
• 21:00 UTC Victoria Rodriguez v Alicia Herrero Linana (WTA Queretaro Open): A. Herrero Linana 73.2%
• 22:00 UTC Argentinos Juniors v Independiente Rivadavia (Liga Profesional): Argentinos 48.3%, likely 2-0
• 22:30 UTC Dasha Plekhanova v Miriam Bulgaru (WTA Queretaro Open): D. Plekhanova 65.4%
• 23:00 UTC Cúcuta Deportivo v Águilas Doradas (Primera A): Cúcuta 40.4%, likely 2-1
• 23:00 UTC Western Kentucky Hilltoppers v Delaware Blue Hens (NCAA Football): Western KY 55.5%
• 23:00 UTC Philadelphia Flyers v Columbus Blue Jackets (NHL): Blue Jackets 55.2%
• 23:30 UTC Boston Celtics v Brooklyn Nets (NBA): Celtics 66.1%

How to read these numbers

Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.