Europa League predictions for 22 October 2026: every match previewed

18 Europa League fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 8 clear favourites, 10 games the model calls close.

18 Europa League matches are scheduled between Thursday, 22 October 2026 and Thursday, 22 October 2026. The model makes 8 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is AFC Bournemouth against AC Milan, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

AFC Bournemouth54.2%3-0AC Milan20.3%Bournemouth to win · 54.2%

AFC Bournemouth are a marginal favourite at 42.3% (draw 29.3%, AC Milan 28.5%). Expected goals come out at 1.8 for AFC Bournemouth and 0.6 for AC Milan, with 1-0 the most likely exact score. The model expects a tight game, Under 2.5 at 55.5%, and both teams to score is unlikely at 40.5%. Bookmakers price AFC Bournemouth at about 47.6%, so the model is 5.3 points below the market. On Elo ratings AFC Bournemouth are the clearly stronger side (85 points of edge including home advantage). Form: AFC Bournemouth WWLLW, AC Milan WWDWL (most recent first).

Every fixture

Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar, Thursday, 22 October 2026 16:45 UTC

AZ Alkmaar to win at 69.8%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 65%. Form: Ararat-Armenia LL, AZ Alkmaar DWLWL. Full preview

Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen, Thursday, 22 October 2026 16:45 UTC

Dinamo Zagreb to win at 55.9%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 48.9%. Form: Dinamo Zagreb WDDLL, NEC DDDDL. Full preview

Ferencvaros v Torreense, Thursday, 22 October 2026 16:45 UTC

Ferencvaros to win at 81.3%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 67.3%. Form: Ferencvaros WWLWW, Torreense LW. Full preview

Juventus v Stade Rennais, Thursday, 22 October 2026 16:45 UTC

Juventus to win at 64.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 27.8%. Form: Juventus LWDWW, Rennes LWWLD. Full preview

Lech Poznan v Sunderland, Thursday, 22 October 2026 16:45 UTC

Sunderland to win at 68.4%, most likely score 0-3, Over 2.5 at 65.8%. Form: Lech Poznan LL, Sunderland LWLLW. Full preview

OFI Crete v Bayer Leverkusen, Thursday, 22 October 2026 16:45 UTC

Bayer Leverkusen to win at 62.1%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 49%. Form: OFI Crete LLLDW, Leverkusen WWWWW. Full preview

SK Sturm Graz v Marseille, Thursday, 22 October 2026 16:45 UTC

Marseille to win at 55.4%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 12.9%. Form: Sturm Graz WLWLD, Marseille WLWLL. Full preview

Union St.-Gilloise v Hapoel Be'er, Thursday, 22 October 2026 16:45 UTC

Union St.-Gilloise to win at 78.6%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 27.6%. Form: Union SG DDWWW, Hapoel Be'er LD. Full preview

AFC Bournemouth v AC Milan, Thursday, 22 October 2026 19:00 UTC

AFC Bournemouth to win at 42.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 44.5%. Form: Bournemouth WWLLW, Milan WWDWL. Full preview

Besiktas v Crystal Palace, Thursday, 22 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Besiktas to win at 46.8%, most likely score 3-2, Over 2.5 at 94%. Form: Besiktas LWWLW, C Palace LLWDW. Full preview

Celtic v Celta Vigo, Thursday, 22 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Celtic to win at 38%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 64.8%. Form: Celtic WLWLL, Celta Vigo WLDWL. Full preview

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Anderlecht, Thursday, 22 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Anderlecht to win at 49.4%, Over 2.5 at 56.5%. Form: Jagiellonia WL, Anderlecht LWWLW. Full preview

Lillestrom v Real Sociedad, Thursday, 22 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Real Sociedad to win at 68.8%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 36.4%. Form: Lillestrom WDDLL, Real Sociedad WDWWL. Full preview

NK Celje v RB Salzburg, Thursday, 22 October 2026 19:00 UTC

RB Salzburg to win at 66.9%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 32.4%. Form: NK Celje LL, RB Salzburg WLDWW. Full preview

Olympiacos v Sparta Prague, Thursday, 22 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Olympiacos to win at 73.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 28.2%. Form: Olympiacos WWWWW, Sparta DW. Full preview

Omonia Nicosia v Benfica, Thursday, 22 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Benfica to win at 74.5%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 25.4%. Form: Omonia WW, Benfica WWLWW. Full preview

TSG Hoffenheim v Lyon, Thursday, 22 October 2026 19:00 UTC

TSG Hoffenheim to win at 58.9%, Over 2.5 at 80.8%. Form: Hoffenheim WLLLL, Lyon WWLWW. Full preview

Viktoria Plzen v Levski Sofia, Thursday, 22 October 2026 19:00 UTC

Viktoria Plzen to win at 59.5%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 12.3%. Form: Viktoria Plzen LLDDW, Levski Sofia DL. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Europa League probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.