Knicks v Raptors headlines 15 October: 71 predictions, the stakes and where the value is
71 games across 16 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.
Thursday, 15 October 2026 brings 71 games across ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2, WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open, ECA Women's European Cup 2026/27, WTA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships and 12 more. 1 of them is a playoff game, 12 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is New York Knicks against Toronto Raptors in the NBA. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.
The big one: New York Knicks v Toronto Raptors
New York Knicks59%v
Toronto Raptors41%Knicks to win · 59%Why it matters: Knicks sit 30th (0-4), Raptors 5th (2-1); Knicks have lost 4 in a row.
New York Knicks are a narrow favourite at 59% against Toronto Raptors at 41%. Form: New York Knicks LLLL, Toronto Raptors WWL (most recent first).
Team news: Carmelo Anthony thinks Knicks right to halt contract talks to focus on season. Former Knicks great Carmelo Anthony said the team is making the right decision in halting contract negotiations with players to focus solely on basketball.
Playoff games, table clashes and streaks
- Marseille v Olympiacos (Europa League, 19:00 UTC): Marseille sit 32nd (0 pts), Olympiacos 13th (3 pts); Olympiacos have won 3 in a row. Model: Marseille 48.3%.
- Cleveland Guardians v Tampa Bay Rays (MLB, 17:00 UTC): ALCS - Game 3: Series tied 1-1. Model: Guardians 50.2%.
- Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen (Europa League, 16:45 UTC): Lech Poznan sit 35th (0 pts), Leverkusen 8th (3 pts); Leverkusen have won 3 in a row. Model: Leverkusen 79.4%.
- Tampa Bay Lightning v Seattle Kraken (NHL, 23:00 UTC): Lightning sit 10th (4-2), Kraken 6th (5-2); Kraken have won 3 in a row. Model: Lightning 51.2%.
- TSG Hoffenheim v Besiktas (Europa League, 19:00 UTC): Hoffenheim sit 31st (0 pts), Besiktas 4th (3 pts); Hoffenheim have lost 3 in a row. Model: Hoffenheim 61.7%.
- Florida Panthers v Vancouver Canucks (NHL, 23:00 UTC): Panthers sit 22nd (3-2), Canucks 28th (2-6); Canucks have lost 5 in a row. Model: Panthers 68.6%.
Where the model and the bookmakers disagree
A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 6 games clear that bar today.
| Match | Pick | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG Hoffenheim v Besiktas | Hoffenheim | 61.7% | 51.2% | +10.5 |
| Stade Rennais v OFI Crete | Rennes | 91.2% | 81.8% | +9.4 |
| Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka | Panathinaikos | 90.1% | 81% | +9.1 |
| AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er | AZ Alkmaar | 84.7% | 76.7% | +8 |
| Celta Vigo v Juventus | Juventus | 53.3% | 45.5% | +7.8 |
| NK Celje v Omonia Nicosia | Omonia | 45.9% | 39.2% | +6.7 |
A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.
Upset watch
- F.C. København (40.8%) over Braga. Draw 30.7%, Braga 28.5%.
- Egnatia (42%) over FC Midtjylland. Draw 29.2%, Midtjylland 28.8%.
- Tampa Bay Lightning (51.2%) over Seattle Kraken, who have won 3 straight. Kraken 48.8%.
- Marseille (48.3%) over Olympiacos, who have won 3 straight. Draw 21%, Olympiacos 30.7%.
- Lyon (45.7%) over Crystal Palace. Draw 23.2%, C Palace 31%.
Goals markets
- Over 2.5 lean: SK Brann v Lincoln Red Imps, 78.3% (expected goals 3 and 1.1)
- Over 2.5 lean: Jagiellonia Bialystok v Ararat-Armenia, 77.5% (expected goals 2.8 and 1.3)
- Over 2.5 lean: Marseille v Olympiacos, 76.3% (expected goals 0.8 and 3.2)
- Under 2.5 lean: AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er, 98.8%
- Under 2.5 lean: Stade Rennais v OFI Crete, 96.1%
- Both teams to score: Jagiellonia Bialystok v Ararat-Armenia is the strongest at 69.2%
Yesterday in one line
45 of 85 picks landed (52.9%), against a running 55.2% over 759 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review
Every game today, 71 predictions
- 05:30 UTC Oman v Canada (ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2): OMA 65.4%
- 06:25 UTC Mia Pohankova v Maria Sakkari (WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open): M. Sakkari 57.2%
- 06:25 UTC Iva Jovic v Maja Chwalinska (WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open): I. Jovic 69%
- 07:00 UTC Austria Women v Sweden Women (ECA Women's European Cup 2026/27): SWE-W 68.6%
- 07:35 UTC Leylah Fernandez v Jelena Ostapenko (WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open): L. Fernandez 55.9%
- 08:00 UTC Andrea Lazaro Garcia v Nuria Brancaccio (WTA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships): A. Lazaro Garcia 61.8%
- 09:00 UTC Jasmine Paolini v Sonay Kartal (WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open): S. Kartal 51.2%
- 09:30 UTC Lucie Nguyen Tan v Laura Samson (WTA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships): L. Nguyen Tan 52%
- 10:00 UTC Alexander Zverev v Alex de Minaur (ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters): A. Zverev 67.4%
- 10:00 UTC Leyre Romero Gormaz v Raluka Serban (WTA Lisboa Belem Open): L. Romero Gormaz 68.4%
- 10:00 UTC Dalma Galfi v Matilde Jorge (WTA Lisboa Belem Open): D. Galfi 57.8%
- 10:00 UTC Teodora Kostovic v Martyna Kubka (WTA RoveretOpen Città della Pace): T. Kostovic 62.3%
- 11:00 UTC Bulgaria Women v Sweden Women (ECA Women's European Cup 2026/27): SWE-W 93.8%
- 11:00 UTC Ashlyn Krueger v Iga Swiatek (WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open): I. Swiatek 80.4%
- 11:30 UTC Francisca Jorge v Francesca Jones (WTA Lisboa Belem Open): F. Jones 68.6%
- 11:30 UTC Dominika Salkova v Viktoria Hruncakova (WTA RoveretOpen Città della Pace): D. Salkova 54.7%
- 12:30 UTC Ann Li v Janice Tjen (WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open): A. Li 63.5%
- 13:30 UTC Ane Mintegi Del Olmo v Rebeka Masarova (WTA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships): R. Masarova 60.7%
- 13:40 UTC Al Faisaly v Al Kholood (Saudi Pro League): Al Kholood 53.5%, likely 0-1
- 14:30 UTC Anouk Koevermans v Lea Boskovic (WTA RoveretOpen Città della Pace): A. Koevermans 55.7%
- 14:50 UTC Al Khaleej v Al Fayha (Saudi Pro League): Al Khaleej 53.4%, likely 1-0
- 15:15 UTC Al Hazem v Al Fateh (Saudi Pro League): Al Fateh 36.5%
- 16:45 UTC AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er (Europa League): AZ Alkmaar 84.7%, likely 1-0
- 16:45 UTC Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen (Europa League): Leverkusen 79.4%, likely 0-3
- 16:45 UTC Lyon v Crystal Palace (Europa League): Lyon 45.7%
- 16:45 UTC NK Celje v Omonia Nicosia (Europa League): Omonia 45.9%, likely 0-1
- 16:45 UTC RB Salzburg v AC Milan (Europa League): Milan 55.3%
- 16:45 UTC Sparta Prague v Lillestrom (Europa League): Sparta 77.4%, likely 3-0
- 16:45 UTC Torreense v Sunderland (Europa League): Sunderland 76.1%, likely 0-1
- 16:45 UTC Union St.-Gilloise v Real Sociedad (Europa League): Real Sociedad 39.3%
- 16:45 UTC CSKA Sofia v AS Monaco (Conference League): Monaco 51.2%
- 16:45 UTC CSU Craiova v Getafe (Conference League): Getafe 39.3%, likely 0-1
- 16:45 UTC Egnatia v FC Midtjylland (Conference League): Egnatia 42%, likely 1-0
- 16:45 UTC FC Lugano v Red Star Belgrade (Conference League): FC Lugano 41.3%, likely 1-0
- 16:45 UTC Hajduk Split v Ajax Amsterdam (Conference League): Ajax 48%
- 16:45 UTC KAA Gent v AGF (Conference League): KAA Gent 52.8%, likely 1-0
- 16:45 UTC KuPS Kuopio v Trabzonspor (Conference League): Trabzonspor 49.6%
- 16:45 UTC Mjällby AIF v Inter D'Escaldes (Conference League): Mjällby 61.6%, likely 1-0
- 16:45 UTC Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka (Conference League): Panathinaikos 90.1%, likely 1-0
- 16:45 UTC Riga FC v Kairat Almaty (Conference League): Riga FC 48.2%, likely 1-0
- 17:00 UTC Cleveland Guardians v Tampa Bay Rays (MLB): Guardians 50.2%
- 17:00 UTC Antonia Ruzic v Bianca Andreescu (WTA RoveretOpen Città della Pace): B. Andreescu 50.2%
- 18:00 UTC Al Ahli v Al Nassr (Saudi Pro League): Al Nassr 53.4%, likely 1-2
- 19:00 UTC AFC Bournemouth v SK Sturm Graz (Europa League): Bournemouth 89.3%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC Benfica v Celtic (Europa League): Benfica 83.6%, likely 3-0
- 19:00 UTC Celta Vigo v Juventus (Europa League): Juventus 53.3%, likely 0-2
- 19:00 UTC Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht (Europa League): Dinamo Zagreb 49.3%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC Ferencvaros v Viktoria Plzen (Europa League): Ferencvaros 45.8%, likely 2-0
- 19:00 UTC Jagiellonia Bialystok v Ararat-Armenia (Europa League): Jagiellonia 77.2%, likely 2-1
- 19:00 UTC Marseille v Olympiacos (Europa League): Marseille 48.3%
- 19:00 UTC NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia (Europa League): NEC 57.1%
- 19:00 UTC Stade Rennais v OFI Crete (Europa League): Rennes 91.2%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC TSG Hoffenheim v Besiktas (Europa League): Hoffenheim 61.7%
- 19:00 UTC Atalanta v Pafos (Conference League): Atalanta 60.8%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC Brighton & Hove Albion v Kauno Zalgiris (Conference League): Brighton 73.1%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC F.C. København v Braga (Conference League): København 40.8%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC FC Twente v FC Thun (Conference League): FC Twente 66.4%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC Heart of Midlothian v FC Nordsjælland (Conference League): Nordsjælland 38.2%
- 19:00 UTC SC Freiburg v Jablonec (Conference League): Freiburg 65.4%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC Sint-Truidense v Iberia 1999 (Conference League): Sint-Truidense 64.3%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC SK Brann v Lincoln Red Imps (Conference League): SK Brann 81.6%, likely 3-1
- 19:00 UTC Mansfield Town v Oxford United (League One): Mansfield 44.8%
- 23:00 UTC Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata (Liga Profesional): Huracán 36.1%, likely 1-0
- 23:00 UTC Toronto Maple Leafs v Buffalo Sabres (NHL): Maple Leafs 58.4%
- 23:00 UTC Ottawa Senators v New York Islanders (NHL): Senators 56.8%
- 23:00 UTC Tampa Bay Lightning v Seattle Kraken (NHL): Lightning 51.2%
- 23:00 UTC Florida Panthers v Vancouver Canucks (NHL): Panthers 68.6%
- 23:00 UTC New Jersey Devils v New York Rangers (NHL): Rangers 60.9%
- 23:30 UTC New York Knicks v Toronto Raptors (NBA): Knicks 59%
- 23:30 UTC UAB Blazers v East Carolina Pirates (NCAA Football): UAB 63.6%
- 23:30 UTC Detroit Red Wings v Philadelphia Flyers (NHL): Red Wings 89.2%
How to read these numbers
Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.