76ers v Celtics headlines 16 October: 51 predictions, the stakes and where the value is
51 games across 28 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.
Friday, 16 October 2026 brings 51 games across ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters, ECA Women's European Cup 2026/27, WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open, WTA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships and 24 more. 7 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Philadelphia 76ers against Boston Celtics in the NBA. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.
The big one: Philadelphia 76ers v Boston Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers55%v
Boston Celtics45%76ers to win · 55%Why it matters: 76ers sit 24th (1-2), Celtics 1st (3-0); Celtics have won 3 in a row.
Philadelphia 76ers are a narrow favourite at 55% against Boston Celtics at 45%. Form: Philadelphia 76ers LLW, Boston Celtics WWW (most recent first).
Team news: Maxey: Healthy Embiid 'changes everything' for Sixers. 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey said Thursday that having a healthy Joel Embiid "changes everything" for the Sixers.
Playoff games, table clashes and streaks
- Defensa y Justicia v Instituto (Córdoba) (Liga Profesional, 22:00 UTC): a top-of-the-table meeting, 2nd against 1st (24 pts v 26 pts). Model: Def. y Jus. 40.9%.
- Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers (A-League Men, 09:00 UTC): a relegation six-pointer, 10th against 12th; Western Sydney have lost 5 in a row. Model: Sydney FC 38.9%.
- Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin (2. Bundesliga, 16:30 UTC): Holstein Kiel sit 18th (4 pts), Hertha 1st (21 pts); Hertha have won 7 in a row. Model: Hertha 51.4%.
- Stade de Reims v Dijon FCO (Ligue 2, 18:00 UTC): Reims sit 4th (14 pts), Dijon FCO 7th (12 pts); Dijon FCO have won 3 in a row. Model: Reims 56.9%.
- Rapid Vienna v TSV Hartberg (Austrian Bundesliga, 17:30 UTC): Rapid Vienna sit 1st (21 pts), TSV Hartberg 5th (11 pts); Rapid Vienna have won 3 in a row. Model: Rapid Vienna 85.7%.
- Leganés v Córdoba (LaLiga 2, 18:30 UTC): Leganés sit 16th (11 pts), Córdoba 18th (9 pts); Leganés have lost 3 in a row. Model: Leganés 40%.
Where the model and the bookmakers disagree
A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 5 games clear that bar today.
| Match | Pick | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid Vienna v TSV Hartberg | Rapid Vienna | 85.7% | 78.3% | +7.4 |
| Grenoble v Boulogne | Boulogne | 45% | 37.7% | +7.3 |
| Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers | Sydney FC | 38.9% | 45.5% | -6.6 |
| Heerenveen v Excelsior | Heerenveen | 71.4% | 65.5% | +5.9 |
| Annecy v AS Nancy Lorraine | Nancy | 47.5% | 41.7% | +5.8 |
A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.
Upset watch
- Leganés (40%) over Córdoba, with Leganés on a 3-game losing run. Draw 26.5%, Córdoba 33.5%.
- Guingamp (45.1%) over Pau, who have won 2 straight, with Guingamp on a 2-game losing run. Draw 26.3%, Pau 28.5%.
- Randers FC (46.2%) over AC Horsens, with Randers on a 3-game losing run. Draw 32.9%, AC Horsens 21%.
- Philadelphia 76ers (55%) over Boston Celtics, who have won 3 straight, with 76ers on a 2-game losing run. Celtics 45%.
- Defensa y Justicia (40.9%) over Instituto (Córdoba). Draw 27.4%, Instituto 31.7%.
Goals markets
- Over 2.5 lean: Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg, 87.6% (expected goals 2.2 and 2.9)
- Over 2.5 lean: Hellas Verona v Catanzaro, 81.5% (expected goals 2.7 and 1.7)
- Over 2.5 lean: Çorum FK v Caykur Rizespor, 77.6% (expected goals 2.8 and 1.3)
- Under 2.5 lean: Grenoble v Boulogne, 77.7%
- Under 2.5 lean: Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers, 60.5%
- Both teams to score: Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg is the strongest at 83.9%
Yesterday in one line
56 of 90 picks landed (62.2%), against a running 56.1% over 839 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review
Every game today, 51 predictions
- 06:40 UTC Rafael Jodar v Casper Ruud (ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters): R. Jodar 60.5%
- 07:00 UTC Romania Women v Bulgaria Women (ECA Women's European Cup 2026/27): ROM-W 89.3%
- 07:30 UTC Maja Chwalinska v Maria Sakkari (WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open): M. Sakkari 52.3%
- 08:00 UTC Julia Grabher v Ariana Geerlings (WTA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships): J. Grabher 57.9%
- 09:00 UTC Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers (A-League Men): Sydney FC 38.9%, likely 1-0
- 09:30 UTC Ane Mintegi Del Olmo v Rebeka Masarova (WTA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships): R. Masarova 60.7%
- 10:00 UTC Daniil Medvedev v Tommy Paul (ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters): D. Medvedev 51.9%
- 10:00 UTC Leyre Romero Gormaz v Fiona Ferro (WTA Lisboa Belem Open): F. Ferro 61.1%
- 10:00 UTC Dalma Galfi v Francesca Jones (WTA Lisboa Belem Open): F. Jones 61.1%
- 10:30 UTC Gabriela Knutson v Martyna Kubka (WTA RoveretOpen Città della Pace): G. Knutson 65.5%
- 11:00 UTC Austria Women v Bulgaria Women (ECA Women's European Cup 2026/27): AUT-W 87.3%
- 11:00 UTC Francesca Curmi v Elizara Yaneva (WTA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships): F. Curmi 51.1%
- 11:00 UTC Ann Li v Iga Swiatek (WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open): I. Swiatek 73.9%
- 11:30 UTC Jessica Bouzas Maneiro v Polona Hercog (WTA Lisboa Belem Open): J. Bouzas Maneiro 67.2%
- 11:30 UTC Clara Burel v Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales (WTA Lisboa Belem Open): C. Burel 53.5%
- 12:00 UTC Dominika Salkova v Lea Boskovic (WTA RoveretOpen Città della Pace): D. Salkova 50.1%
- 12:30 UTC Andrea Lazaro Garcia v Laura Samson (WTA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships): L. Samson 54%
- 13:15 UTC Al Qadsiah v Abha (Saudi Pro League): Al Qadsiah 88.9%, likely 3-0
- 13:30 UTC India Women v Zimbabwe Women (Zimbabwe Women tour of India 2026/27): IND-W 95.3%
- 15:00 UTC Al Riyadh v Al Hilal (Saudi Pro League): Al Hilal 86.7%, likely 0-3
- 16:00 UTC Lucie Havlickova v Jil Teichmann (WTA RoveretOpen Città della Pace): J. Teichmann 56.6%
- 16:30 UTC Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg (2. Bundesliga): 1. FC Nürnberg 59.5%, likely 2-3
- 16:30 UTC Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin (2. Bundesliga): Hertha 51.4%, likely 1-2
- 17:00 UTC Çorum FK v Caykur Rizespor (Super Lig): Çorum FK 45.6%, likely 2-1
- 17:00 UTC AC Horsens v Randers FC (Danish Superliga): Randers 46.2%
- 17:00 UTC IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgården (Allsvenskan): Djurgården 72.2%, likely 1-2
- 17:30 UTC Rapid Vienna v TSV Hartberg (Austrian Bundesliga): Rapid Vienna 85.7%, likely 2-1
- 17:30 UTC Bianca Andreescu v Lucrezia Stefanini (WTA RoveretOpen Città della Pace): L. Stefanini 53.4%
- 18:00 UTC Heerenveen v Excelsior (Eredivisie): Heerenveen 71.4%, likely 2-1
- 18:00 UTC Annecy v AS Nancy Lorraine (Ligue 2): Nancy 47.5%
- 18:00 UTC Grenoble v Boulogne (Ligue 2): Boulogne 45%, likely 0-1
- 18:00 UTC Guingamp v Pau (Ligue 2): Guingamp 45.1%, likely 2-1
- 18:00 UTC Stade de Reims v Dijon FCO (Ligue 2): Reims 56.9%, likely 2-1
- 18:00 UTC Stade Laval v Clermont Foot (Ligue 2): Stade Laval 50.2%, likely 1-0
- 18:00 UTC Al Ittihad v Al Shabab (Saudi Pro League): Al Ittihad 52.2%, likely 2-1
- 18:30 UTC Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Cologne (Bundesliga): Frankfurt 55.7%, likely 2-1
- 18:30 UTC Leganés v Córdoba (LaLiga 2): Leganés 40%
- 18:30 UTC Hellas Verona v Catanzaro (Serie B): Verona 56.8%, likely 2-1
- 18:45 UTC Frosinone v Sassuolo (Serie A): Frosinone 39.6%, likely 2-1
- 18:45 UTC Le Mans v Toulouse (Ligue 1): Toulouse 46.8%, likely 1-2
- 19:00 UTC Deportivo v Levante (La Liga): Deportivo 46.7%, likely 2-1
- 19:00 UTC Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers (Championship): Wolves 49.7%, likely 1-2
- 22:00 UTC Defensa y Justicia v Instituto (Córdoba) (Liga Profesional): Def. y Jus. 40.9%, likely 1-0
- 23:00 UTC Mirassol v Internacional (Brasileirao): Mirassol 44.5%, likely 1-0
- 23:00 UTC Orlando Magic v Miami Heat (NBA): Magic 57.9%
- 23:00 UTC Philadelphia 76ers v Boston Celtics (NBA): 76ers 55%
- 23:00 UTC Detroit Pistons v Toronto Raptors (NBA): Pistons 60.4%
- 23:00 UTC Indiana Pacers v Milwaukee Bucks (NBA): Pacers 53.8%
- 23:00 UTC Hobart Hurricanes Women v Perth Scorchers Women (T20 Spring Challenge): HH-W 58.2%
- 23:00 UTC Sydney Thunder Women v Melbourne Renegades Women (T20 Spring Challenge): MR-W 52.1%
- 23:30 UTC Tulane Green Wave v Memphis Tigers (NCAA Football): Tulane 55.5%
How to read these numbers
Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.